It was another good week in NBA betting for yours truly, going 11-5 overall. Here are my best bets and predictions for today’s game five of the West Finals, happy Monday!
Parlay- Suns win + Clippers/Suns under 214.5, 1 unit to win 1.76 units:
I started off the morning the same way I always do– reviewing yesterday’s bets, figuring out where I went right and where I went wrong, and looking at the lines and opportunities ahead today. Then I watched the video of Chris Paul talking about the growth of DeAndre Ayton. Paul nearly choked up talking about his young teammate. Ayton has really showed up in the playoffs, dominating the rim with high percentage shots, sharking offensive and defensive rebounds and playing grown-man defense. While the NBA is more dependent than ever on guards and high-tempo perimeter shooting, great teams need a front court that can take over a game if the shots aren’t falling from the outside. Ayton has proven he’s every bit the front court general Phoenix needs and he’s a huge reason why they keep winning.
All that aside, it was the way Chris Paul talked about Ayton that really got to me. Paul really cares– not just about winning or about finally getting a ring– he really cares about his teammates. Hard when he has to be but always supportive and professorial, Chris Paul has put on a leadership clinic in his first year with Phoenix. I think it’s fair to say this team wouldn’t be nearly as mature and focused if it wasn’t for the 16 year veteran.
The Suns are such a complete team, and I don’t only mean the way their roster is constructed. They’re complete because every single player understands and maximizes their role. Under the direction of CP3 and coach Monty Williams, everyone gets to contribute in their own unique way. At times Devin Booker’s ego feels disruptive to their chemistry and team-basketball mentality, but CP3 and his coach have ways to modify those interruptions. Booker is a better player for it and with his enigmatic offensive ability, he can shine without taking on too much of that superstar-load.
Three out of four of the games in this series have gone under 207 points. Game four was only 164 total points. The Clippers and Suns are playing really aggressive, smart defense and I see no evidence to suggest that this game will result in anything different. Of course the Suns are back at their home arena where their offense often thrives, but I still think that favors the under. At home, Phoenix should be able to gain a lead by margin early, which only enables a more comfortable and strategic approach for their defense. In two games at Phoenix, the Clippers kept the contests competitive thanks to superior perimeter shooting. Under the pressure of elimination and in front of a hostile crowd, I don’t think they’ll be so lucky in game five.
With Kawhi officially out tonight and a tired Paul George desperately, barely surviving as the team’s sole star (he was 5/20 from the field in game four at the Staples Center), this feels like the game where Phoenix closes it out. The last thing Monty Williams and his team wants is to let this series drag on and return to the Staples Center for game six. That has yet another comeback story written all over it for LAC. The Chris-Paul-led Suns are too cohesive and too talented to let that happen, especially at their home arena. Let’s start this week out right and shoot for the parlay for nearly twice the return!
