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2-0, +1.60 units so far on March Madness!
Nevada vs Arizona St -2.5 (O/U 134.5) 9:10pm ET
Why revenge, these teams don’t play each other? Well, at the end of the 2021-2022 season, Desmond Cambridge and Warren Washington transferred to? Yes you guessed it, Arizona State! Talk about story-lines galore. Does ASU have a better resume and are they better in certain statistical categories, yes. I do think it’s somewhat of an over reaction though, we just saw them beat USC comfortably and play high flying much ‘older’ Gonzaga. Compared to Nevada who lost 3 straight, 2 of the way of OT vs 3 comparably weak teams. The Wolf Pack did hold leads at the 2 minute mark in both OT losses, but were unable to close it out.
Previous to last week they were 22-6, and most would say a cinch to make the Big Dance. But is their resume not as good as ASU though? I believe it could be better even with all the narratives out there betting against the Mountain West. With 4 quad 1 wins and 7 quad 1/2 victories. What they do have is continuity, with all 5 starters who started game 1, and also started game 32. Led by Oregon St transfer senior guard Jarod Lucas, averaging 25 points a game ironically in his L3.
How are the Wolf Pack going to win? Crashing the boards defensively, not turning the ball over and making their free throws. Both these defenses are great at forcing turnovers, but Nevada’s offense is averaging 8.6 a game in their L5, as opposed to ASU is averaging 11.8 in the L5. The Wolf Pack average 17 made free throws a game, while shooting 79% from the charity strike. Whereas ASU ranks 260th nationally at 68.9%. 6’8 freshman forward Nick Davidson could be the difference maker tonight, his ability to score and crash the glass all off the bench could be the final push needed vs the Sun Devils.
I’m all over the Wolf Pack tonight with a strong UNIT UPGRADE!
Nevada +2.5 (BetMGM -110) 2 units
