Friday:
VCU vs Rhode Island -2 O/U 138
You going to bet the Rams this game? How can you not root for Rhode Island here with their star player names Fatts Russell? It feels like a mobster name or something. Both of these teams returned most of their production from last year which made me think preseason that one of these teams were going to win the Atlantic 10 until I saw Dayton. Either way, these teams have legitimate shots getting an at large bid in the tournament because they each have some pretty good wins so far. That is what makes this game so important to me. Both teams play fast and have good defenses which make them somewhat strange to handicap. Rhode island is a defensive oriented team who just doesn’t seem to shoot well and VCU is also defensive oriented who shoots the ball better but has had an easier schedule than Rhode Island. Both of these teams feel very similar in style to me. VCU is a tad bit taller. Due to the fact that this conference’s pace of play seems to be so slow, I have to lean towards the over in this game. Rhode Island ranks 40th in possession length and VCU ranks 29th.
Lean over
Saturday:
Providence vs Butler -10 O/U 130
Providence has been on a very tough run in the Big East playing the very top teams over the last 2 weeks. They actually help up well vs Nova only losing by 4 points. The Friars are a defensive oriented team who plays at an average pace but shoots the ball very bad ranking 314th in effective FG%. Butler is another defensive oriented team who had a cold slump themselves but got out of that slump beating Marquette in overtime and at Georgetown. Butler ranks a healthy 15th on Kenpom. They shoot the ball well at 40% effective FG% and rank 18th in adjusted efficiency. What I do not like about them this side is that they have Villanova on deck. What I do like though is that they should be able to stop Providence from scoring and have a very good chance to clock this thing at the end looking at a double digit point spread. Their last game went to 128 and over by 1 point due foul city from providence with over 2 minutes left in the game. I like the under here small. Butler Ranks 341st in average possession length and the Big East in General is a faster placed conference. I also expect Providence to d-up a bit.
Under – 1.5 star premium shared
Michigan State vs Wisconsin +4.5 O/U 131
This has been such a strange week for Buckey. I really wanted to play Wisconsin here until Kobe King decided to up and leave the team high and dry this week. To add insult to injury, the Big 10 shortly after decided to suspend Brad Davison for his technical foul from the Iowa game. Michigan State’s only conference losses were on the road this year but they are getting off easy playing Wisconsin after this mess. Wisconsin is still that high varience team who is great at home and bad on the road. I would say to bet Michigan State here in most cases but I would wonder if all this hardship rallies this team. Wisconsin still has some experience at guard with Trice, Pritzle and Trevor Anderson. Kobe King wasn’t a great player by any means and I wonder if Reuvers and Potter play hard this game. I think there is a good chance that Michigan State will be over valued due to the suspension of Davison and the Badgers losing Kobe King. Wait this one out and see if you get past 5. This could also be a flat spot for Michigan State with Penn State on deck.
Wisconsin +5.5 – 1.5 star premium shared
Kentucky vs Auburn -3 O/U 143
Now this is the game the game that I have been waiting to watch. These 2 teams were the best in the SEC last year with apologies to LSU. Both teams have lost a lot of production but Kentucky always seems to be the recruiting powerhouse. Now Kentucky is 3-1 ATS as an away team this year and 2-0 as an away underdog. Auburn is just 5-6 ATS as a home team this year. Some key things really stick out to me here. Kentucky was definitely in a flat spot and looking ahead to this game when they played Vanderbilt on Wednesday and Auburn hasn’t beaten a top 50 team all year. The only ones that they played were away games vs Florida and Alabama losing both games. Auburn also isn’t that three point team that they were last year after losing Brown and Okeke. Last year they ranked 21st in three point percentage and this year they rank 264th at only 31%. Auburn is also a shorter team than Kentucky and will have some serious Match-up Problems against Nick Richards. You know that Kentucky will be up for this game and as long as Auburn doesn’t hit the outside shots, I think Kentucky is the team that will flat out win this game and give Auburn their first home loss of the season. The wrong team is favored and I am on the Cats all the way to -1.5.
Kentucky +3 – 3 star premium shared
Quick Mention.
Illinois vs Iowa -5.5 O/U 147 on Sunday: Looking at the under this game. Illinois has really slowed it down and the under is 13-7 in Carver Hawkeye Arena this year.
Under 147 – 2 star premium shared
