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Auburn vs Arkansas +2.5 O/U 157.5
Normally I do not look to fade home dogs on big Saturdays, but this is a spot where I see some value. Auburn has been a force this year ranking number 10 on Kenpom. They play some amazing defense ranking 18th in efficiency with a great offense ranking 16th in overall efficiency and 57th effective FG%. Arkansas on the other hand has a pretty good offense ranking 51st in efficiency, but their defense certainly has let them down with losses to Oklahoma, North Carolina, Memphis and at home to UNC Greensboro. Now according to Kenpom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics, Auburn should win this game by at least five points. The disparity is eleven for Haslametrics. One of the biggest factors for this game in my opinion is the revenge spot. Last year, Arkansas took Auburn out of the SEC tournament in their very first game. Auburn has plenty of upper classman who will remember this. We have to like the fact that Auburn ranks 28th in offensive rebounds to Arkansas ranking 219th. Rebounding is a big factor in big games. The numbers just do not add up here and I am going to take the Tigers for the win.
Auburn ML -140 – 2.5 stars
