Friday:
Purdue vs Michigan State -5.5 O/U 141.5
This is a pretty high total for Big 10 play. The reason for the high total is that Big 10 games have been going over the total in general thanks to the way they went last year making the oddsmakers put lower numbers out. That has been adjusted now and now that we are in conference play, it is an entirely different animal. Some of these seconds per possession stats are skewed in Kenpom because the Big 10 played some very easy non-conference games. When these teams play each other it tends to be more of a chess match than anything. Now Purdue is a taller team with Travion Williams at 6’10 and Freshman Zach Edney at 7’4 but don’t be fooled. Purdue ranks 9th worst in near proximity points at 67.45%. That shows me that Michigan State should be able to score in the paint with offensive rotation. Michigan State is also a decent 3 point team with Joey Hauser leading the way and he could easily get hot at home. Both of these teams are bad at the free throw line which should lesson the total points scored. Purdue doesn’t do anything that great and I think that they could struggle on the road at the Breslin Center. Purdue only averages 68 points per game on the road and have yet to win a road game. Michigan State averages 82.6 points per game at home with their only bad home game vs Wisconsin. This stat of course includes their easy games but they are still a good home team. I think we are going to see some defense here. Although the price on the side has gotten too high for my liking for Michigan State, I am on the under here for sure.
Under 141.5 – 2 star premium play
Saturday
Clemson vs North Carolina -1 O/U 128 – 131 ish
This is a very nice ACC matchup here with the current best team in the ACC in Clemson against a very young North Carolina team. Clemson has definitely the best defense in the ACC and they rank number 1 on Kenpom in defensive efficiency in the league. I have watched their games and I have to agree that they really can shut down some teams. North Carolina on the other hand is it’s own animal. They play a very fast pace at 15.8 seconds per possession and they play great defense as well ranking 14th on Kenpom. Due to these 2 teams defense, the under will most likely get hit pretty hard but I am going to say not so fast on that and take the other approach. Clemson actually plays a little faster themselves ranking 207th in average possession length when they are 305th in pace. This game is at North Carolina so I do expect some whistles to go UNC’s way and we should see some foul shots. When facing taller teams like Purdue, Clemson went to 151 points and when Clemson faced Florida State the total also went over to 142 points. I think Clemson can be scored upon in the paint and I think that this game goes over.
Over 129 – 2.5 star premium shared play
Sunday:
Minnesota vs Iowa -7.5 O/U 163
This here is a monster total and I do not disagree with it because both of these teams play quite fast. The key to this handicap is a couple of things. First, Minnesota has been a great home team but a very bad road team so far. Since 2019, Minnesota is 5-10 ATS on the road and they only won 2 true road games last year. Iowa on the other hand is 18-4-1 ATS since 2019 as a home team. When you bet on teams like Iowa, they tend to get margin at the end of the game because they play so fast. The only time you don’t want to back them is when they face a better team or an amazing defense when on the road. This spread is probably going to creep up a bit but I really think that Iowa gets the job done easily and the cover. I like this one to -9.5
Iowa -7.5 – 3 star premium shared play
- If this spread gets to 10 then take Iowa Team Total over 87 – 2 stars
