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North Carolina vs Wake Forest +5.5 O/U 147.5
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are set to face the North Carolina Tar Heels today in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. The game will take place at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, and is scheduled to start at 11:30 AM PT.
Both teams have had solid seasons, with Wake Forest holding a 21-10 record and North Carolina at 21-12. The Demon Deacons earned a double-bye into the quarterfinals, while the Tar Heels advanced after a dominant win over Notre Dame in the second round.
This matchup is crucial for both teams as they are on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Wake Forest won their regular-season meeting against North Carolina by a narrow margin of 67-66 back in January. It promises to be an exciting game with high stakes!
- Records: Both teams have had strong seasons. Wake Forest holds a 21-10 record, while North Carolina is at 21-12.
- Previous Meeting: Wake Forest narrowly defeated North Carolina 67-66 in their regular-season matchup on January 21.
- Team Strengths:
- North Carolina boasts one of the best offenses in the ACC, averaging 81.7 points per game with a 48% field goal percentage. RJ Davis is a standout player, averaging 17.2 points per game.
- Wake Forest, on the other hand, has been solid defensively, allowing only 68 points per game. Hunter Sallis leads their offense, averaging 18 points per game.
- Stakes: Both teams are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, making this game crucial for their postseason hopes.
This looks like an offensive team vs a defensive team type matchup.
- Defensive Strength: Wake Forest has been solid defensively, allowing only 68 points per game. Their defensive efficiency, as highlighted by KenPom, ranks higher than North Carolina’s, which could help them limit the Tar Heels’ high-powered offense.
- North Carolina’s Defensive Struggles: North Carolina’s defense has been inconsistent, allowing 76.1 points per game and ranking only 65th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. This could give Wake Forest opportunities to exploit weaknesses, especially with their star player Hunter Sallis leading the charge.
- Previous Matchup: Wake Forest narrowly defeated North Carolina 67-66 in their regular-season meeting. This shows they can compete closely with the Tar Heels, making a 5.5-point spread seem manageable.
- Momentum and Rest: Wake Forest earned a double-bye into the quarterfinals, giving them extra rest and preparation time. Meanwhile, North Carolina played just yesterday, which could lead to fatigue.
- Hunter Sallis Factor: Sallis, averaging 18 points per game, has been a consistent scorer for Wake Forest. If he performs well, the Demon Deacons can keep the game close.
Prediction: While North Carolina has been on a hot streak, Wake Forest’s defensive capabilities and previous success against the Tar Heels suggest they can cover the spread. Neither team has great matchup advantages from Three point range or from near the rim. Both teams are on the bubble and fighting for post season birth. This usually also means that defense will prevail. I like the under.
Under 147.5 – 2 stars
