Utah State vs Colorado State +2 O/U 143
Colorado State has been a scoring machine lately averaging 89 points their last 3 games and have won 8 of their last 9 games. Their only recent loss happens to be at Utah State where they only shot 39% while the Aggies shot a crazy high 60% from the field. Both teams have really had it easy this year being that the Mountain West is so weak at the bottom. Utah State hasn’t beaten a top 40 team since LSU back in November. Colorado State hasn’t beaten a top 70 team all year yet they still have a good record at 17-8. The Rams are a short team who can shoot the ball very well ranking 17th in effective FG percent and 22nd from 3. They play at a higher pace than what is shown due to the fact that they blew out so many of the easier teams. Utah State is a tall team with their star Sam Merrill putting up most of the points from the outside and 3. They can also score inside with their size and should easily do so vs the Rams. Their defense is pretty solid holding opponents to 64 points per game but an uglier 70 points per game on the road. Colorado State should get their points at home this game but they will certainly give some up as well. This is a big spot for the Rams who could protect their second place position in the Mountain West conference. Looking at the splits, I think the Rams will win this game and Jeff Sagarin has them as the better team going by recency, but I also think that the better play is the over 143 because both teams play at a higher speed than their opponents thus far.
Colorado State +2 – 1 star premium shared and over 143 – 2 star premium shared
Missouri vs LSU -11 O/U 144
Bravo Missouri. You beat Arkansas at home. You are actually quite good at home aren’t you? 7-5 ATS at home isn’t bad but what are you on the road? A dismal 2-6 ATS is that answer. Missouri has only been scoring 57.9 points per game on the road and a league 3rd worst 36% from the field. They are in a let down spot after beating Arkansas and LSU is in a huge get up spot after dropping the ball on their lead on Saturday at Auburn. Now LSU does not play good D and that is quite obvious, but they still rank 4 in the country in offensive efficiency and they still have not done enough to make the NCAA tournament. Missouri is one of the worst shooting teams in basketball ranking 313th in three point percentage which isn’t good for a team that attempts a three point shot 42% of the time. The Tigers are also pretty bad from 2 point range ranking 238th. Missouri’s defense is below average and won’t be able to stop LSU on the road. I think there is a better chance that they get blown out than cover this spread. Missouri’s problems on the road and poor ATS has not been factored into this line so I will gladly take LSU in this spot.
LSU -11 – 3 star premium shared
