College Basketball 2/14 – 2/16 Free Plays

Friday:

Buffalo vs Toledo -4.5 O/U 155

If there is another conference like the Big 10 where teams are beating each other up and there is no clear difference between the 2nd best team and the like the 9th, it is definitely the MAC.  The second best team in the conference ranks 116th on Kenpom and the second to worst team ranks 189th.  This low parody makes it hard to bet a side here but I think the total market may have some more value.  Now Buffalo definitely has that high flying reputation ranking 8th on Kenpom in adjusted tempo and 3rd in possession length but I am seeing a trend that they are starting to slow down and play dome defense.   When the Bulls faced Central Michigan last Friday, who is the speed team in the conference,  the score only went to 125 points with Buffalo winning outright.   Only 73 possessions in that game.  Buffalo’s last 5 games in fact went under the total.   Toledo is slightly below average pace team that plays poor and good offense but their weakness is against the three point shot ranking only 276th in the nation but the good news is that Buffalo can’t shoot the 3 ball well at all at only 30.7% as a team.  Buffalo has to score inside and that is where Toledo shines with 2 guys 6’10 being a disruption in the paint.   Toledo being at home should be able to control the pace here so I will take the Under.

Saturday:

West Virginia vs Baylor -6 O/U 131

West Virginia was beating Kansas and blew it once again on Wednesday.   They have a great defense ranking 2nd in the nation on Kenpom yet they just can’t score this year.  They only rank 273rd in effective FG%.  Baylor has a good offense due to their offensive rebounding capabilities ranking 4th best in the nation and they have an even better defense ranking 4th in the nation.  Baylor can get cold only ranking 177th in effective FG% and that is why you have seen some closer games then they should have been with this team.  I had to look towards the under hear with these 2 top 5 defenses facing off.  Baylor has also been trending down in tempo with their last 5 games averaging just 64 possessions.   Being the low total, I have to look at West Virginia here in a huge spot.  They need this win much more than Baylor but I also like the under.

Maryland vs Michigan State -4 O/U 137

Michigan State finally got of the schneid and beat Illinois on the road on Tuesday but they didn’t exactly do it in style almost blowing a 20 point lead.  Maryland has been on fire since their lost at Wisconsin back in mid January.  They ripped through 7 wins in a row since then and they are playing amazing defense ranking 5th in the nation.    Maryland isn’t that fade on the road team anymore.    I think these teams are very close to equal and at this number I can’t possibly bet a side.   I may lean to Maryland because Michigan State has shown some vulnerability at home.

Lean Maryland plus the points

Seton Hall vs Providence +2 O/U 136

Both of these teams really disappointed on Wednesday night.   Seton Hall fell to a Creighton team at home and Providence fell to a pretty bad St Johns team who was missing their second best player.   Providence had their nice little run of beating good teams and then they faltered.   I do not see a huge disparity of power ratings and that is why you see Seton hall as a small favorite however I do think that Seton Hall is the most complete and best team in the Big East.   Seton Hall is 4-1 ATS after a loss this year and providence is bad 2-9 ATS after a loss so I do kinda like Seton Hall under 3 points here and lean to the under.

Sunday:

Iowa vs Minnesota -2 O/U 150

Iowa hasn’t exactly been beating good teams on the road.   This Hawkeye team has dropped a few of their last road games against Maryland and then getting blown out at Purdue and lately in Indiana.  The road clutch from Jason Bohannon is certainly missed with his hip injury.   Minnesota on the other hand is a fantastic home team going 9-3 ATS at home this year.   The Gophers average 12 points better at home than on the road.   Iowa is a good shooting team in General but they only are at 43.2 % on the road which is average but as far as expectations are concerned, they are just 3-4 ATS on the road this year.   Iowa’s offensive efficiency ranks 3rd in the nation on Kenpom but their defense is so poor ranking 104th.   I also like the fact that the Gophers are coming off of a tough loss when they are 7-3 ATS in that system.  Iowa’s Luka Garza is an absolute beast but Daniel Oturu can match up with him.  I also do not think that Joe Toussaint will be able to stop Marcus Carr who seems to finish very well at the rim.