Michigan State vs Iowa -9.5 O/U 155
Michigan State has been in a downward spiral since their Covid Pause and being down a big man in Gabe Brown to this disease recently hasn’t really helped them. He will be missing in this matchup vs a good rebounding team. Iowa has been on a downward spiral themselves losing 2 games in a row to good defensive teams in Indiana and Illinois. Iowa lost CJ Fredrick during the Indiana game and he is questionable to play tonight. The big thing that I look at here is that both of these teams play very fast meaning the better team gets margin and the inferior team gives up more points. Watching Michigan State lose to Rutgers by over 30 points and then to Ohio State by 18 points tells me that they are really struggling lately and we should keep riding the fade wave. If CJ Fredrick plays to night it will be a bonus to this line. I think that Iowa could easily cover this spread but there is also a safeguard play that I like. If Michigan State has any chance in covering this line, I think that the over hits here. I aslo think that there is a much better chance that Iowa covers and the over hits than if Iowa doesn’t cover and this game goes under. The only chance that Michigan State has is if they can put up some serious points. I have Iowa winning this game 87-73.
Iowa -1.5 – 1.5 star premium play and over 155 – 1 star play
Baylor vs Texas +5.5 O/U 144.5
Who’s not excited for this game? The best team in the Big 12 plays the second best team in the Big 12 at their house. I am very high on this Texas team here because they are tall, athletic and very experienced. They are coming off a loss 1 week ago to an Oklahoma team who was “gifted” 34 free throws. Texas had their SEC game cancelled on Saturday due to Covid so they are dying to get back on the court and prove something. Andrew Jones leads this team with 14.3 points per game while 3 other guys average double digits. Baylor is the best team in the nation according to my power ratings and somehow they play with speed and amazing defense. You usually do not get both. One advantage that Texas will have is rebounding the ball and scoring down low due to their size. Baylor should have the shooting the ball averaging an amazing 50.2% FG. Both of these teams play much faster than their Tempo shows. They both rank around 130-150 in Tempo while both teams are in the top 62 in second per possession. This is where I see an edge on the game. Both teams will be desperate to put up points and defense will take a backseat to offense and speed. I have this game Baylor winning 77 to 73 but I would not be shocked if it is neck and neck at the end.
Over 144.5 – 2 star premium shared
