Saturday:
North Carolina vs Louisville -11 O/U 146
UNC really had Duke on the ropes a few weeks back and just blew it. Cole Anthony has been the player that tells you if they are going to win or not. Anthony takes 1/3rd of their shots and doesn’t exactly do much on defense. UNC later had 2 games that they almost won at home vs Virginia and away at Notre Dame losing at the last seconds of the game. Louisville had a little run of bad play and lost a few games but just had their slump buster against Syracuse on Wednesday winning by over 20. Louisville is clearly better than North Carolina and every stat line would tell you that, but I am not sure that Louisville is better by over 10 points at home. This game to me will depend upon what kind of effort I see from UNC in the start. This should show up on how they play defense in the first few possessions. If UNC looks like they came to ball then I think live betting them could be an option but if they look like the UNC that has given up on the season then hit Louisville live.
Live bet situation
Michigan vs Purdue -2.5 O/U 134
Michigan is so hot right now and Purdue definitely is not but what I do know is that Livers didn’t play against Rutgers and may not play in this game either. Purdue has went in the opposite direction losing their last 3 games to Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. This is just one of those buy low sell high games. The Boilermakers are not the best shooting team on the road as we know but they have a nice 48% at home. the Wolverine’s have actually stepped it up on the road lately shooting a nice 45.5%. These teams already played this year going into double overtime in Ann Arbor. Purdue almost had them and choked it away. The way to look at this game is the outlook of each team. Michigan is in the big dance for sure this year and do not need this win nearly as much as bubble team Purdue. I also like how Purdue is better at offensive rebounding the ball at 34.7% to Michigan’s 26%. The Boilermakers are 54-27-2 ATS at home since 2014 which is 67%. This is almost a do or die game because Purdue’s last 2 home games are against Indiana and Rutgers.
Purdue -2.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Florida vs Kentucky -5 O/U 139
Both of these teams are very good lately with Florida winning 5 of their last 6 games and Kentucky winning 13 of their last 15 and on a 5 game winning streak since Auburn. Personally, I really do not think that Kentucky should have lost to Auburn due to some extenuating zebra type circumstances but that in my opinion gives me more strength to this handicap. Kentucky to me is that team who really let’s down against the smaller teams with losses against South Carolina and Evansville and and gets up against the tougher teams like Michigan State, LSU and Texas Tech. Florida on the other hand is only 3-5 ATS on the road and I think that they might not be quite as good as the record shows. Their best win overall is against a very lucky Auburn team who actually ranks number 2 in Luck. Florida’s best true road win was against number 73 South Carolina back on January 7th. Florida has a pretty good stat line but they are actually a bit weak on defense compared to other Gator teams of the past. They are also kind of a shorter team down low compared to Kentucky with their only real threat being Blackshear who is the only starter over 6’5. Kentucky has EJ Mongomery and Nick Richards down low who should be able to at least slow down Blackshear. I think that Florida will come back down to earth this game and Kentucky will show why they are legit contenders
Kentucky -5 – 3 star premium play
Oregon vs Arizona -5 O/U 143
- This is the game that will decide the Pac 12 being that Colorado has 3 road games to finish off
- What is interesting to me is that both teams play Thursday night and will be on short rest here.
- Oregon shoots 51% at home but only 42% on the road. Arizona shoots 47.8% at home.
- Arizona lost in Overtime at Oregon earlier this year
- Both teams play faster than their Tempo by a lot if you look at seconds per possion
- I have the score Arizona 79-72 So i really like the over unless Oregon implodes
Over 141 – 2 star
Gonzaga vs BYU + 3.5 O/U 162
- Not sure how the committee will look at BYU playing in a weak conference with only one good win against Houston and 7 losses. This makes this a huge game for them.
- I like BYU cause they are at home and shoot the best 3 point shot in all of basketball at 42.3%. Gonzaga doesn’t defend the 3 as well ranking 96th in opponent 3 point percent. Zaga is a taller team for sure but Yoeli Childs is a beast and he missed half of their games that they have played.
- This is a HR spot for the Zags and I have to be on them.
BYU +5 – 2 star premium and sprinkle
Kansas vs Baylor -2 O/U 127
This game is larger than HUGE. Not only is it for a share of the Big 12 regular season but in my opinion, this game will dictate which team has the best chance as a 1 seed or at least the top one seed in the NCAA tournament. Kansas hasn’t lost since they played Baylor back on January 11th and they have some huge wins vs Dayton, BYU, West Virginia and Colorado. The Jayhawks rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. Their only weakness is Free Throws. Baylor is obviously amazing and undefeated in the Big 12 conference play with just 1 loss in the season to Washington way back when we were wondering if LSU can beat Alabama. Baylor beat Kansas in Kansas already and has handled the rest of the competition in their division. They rank 22nd in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency. Their only weakness is their lower effective FG% of 49.6 and seem to struggle sometimes in the paint. I think that the way to beat the Bears is to beat them at their own game of rebounding the ball and playing great defense. Udoka Azubuike who is the 7 foot center for the Jayhawks will play a huge part in this game. Kansas has the ability to shoot the ball much better than they do. The edge that I actually have found in this game is that, for some reason, Baylor shoots better on the road at 44.8% rather than at home at 41.5%. Kansas shoots well on the road at 47.3% and if they can do anything over 44% they have a chance this game to win. I like the Jayhawks here to keep the March madness seeding interesting.
Kansas +2 – 2 star premium shared
Sunday:
Maryland vs Ohio State -3 O/U 131
What a huge game and another huge spot for Maryland. This Maryland team has really caught their stride and will be on a nice 4 day rest. Ohio State will be only on a 2 day rest after running up and down the court vs Maryland. The Buckeye’s have shown to be vulnerable at home with losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota. Maryland has really stepped it up lately on offense and their defense is better than Ohio State’s. I have to go with the Terps here cause they are motivated to win the Big 10 regular season and Ohio State with 7 losses is out of that contention.
Maryland +2.5 – 1 star premium shared
