Friday:
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State -5 O/U 154.5
Here is a little rival for you on Friday night. These 2 teams are in a conference that is really bunched up with no real front-runner except maybe Little Rock. These teams played earlier at Georgia Southern with the Georgia State Panthers winning 82-77. Both of these teams rank in the top 40 for Tempo but neither team’s defense is all that great without breaking in the top 100 in efficiency. Being that this game is so big to both of these teams, I feel like the over may be worth a look but I really think Georgia State wins this by 7 to 10 points. The Eagles rely on the three point game too much and they can’t seem to rebound the ball ranking 263rd in offensive rebounds in the nation. Also being an away game will hurt their shooting percentage some as well.
Georgia State -5 – 1.5 star premium shared
Saturday:
Michigan State vs Maryland -3 O/U 137
These two teams both had massive comebacks their last game. Michigan State was losing to Iowa and won in the last few minutes and also covered at home and Maryland went on a 10-0 run and won on a huge buzzer beater at Minnesota. This game is huge for Maryland because they clinch the Big 10 regular season title with this win. Michigan State however needs to win to have a shot to tie for the Big 10 regular season but looking at their schedule, they still have @ Penn State and against Ohio State after this game. I personally disagree with Kenpom and Bart Torvik’s ratings on Michigan State. I think some of Sparty’s stats have been padded on some blowout games which is something that is hard to normalize. I think they are a bit high but I also don’t love Maryland’s shooting percentage at only 41.6 % and 43% at home. Heck Michigan State actually shoots 43.6% on the road. These teams played already in East Lansing and Maryland won that game because of their great defense. I think it is their defense that keep them winning most of these games and that is where Kenpom and Torvik is a bit short on them. Maryland allows only 60 points per game at home while Michigan State allows 68 on the road. In saying this, Michigan State has had a harder schedule. What will Maryland do in this situation is what could be hard to quantify under Mark Turgeon. Maybe the under would be a good look being how big this game will be.
Lean Maryland and Under 137 – 1.5 star premium shared
Pittsburgh vs NC State -8.5 O/U 135
I think this is one of those situations where you see a desperate bubble team playing at home vs a team that may have mailed it in. NC State has some very good wins vs Wisconsin, Virginia and Duke this year but they are also coming off of 2 losses and a poor 8-9 conference record. The Wolfpack is definitely not in the tournament as of yet, and I think that they know that they can’t afford to drop this one. The Wolfpack is one of those very average ACC teams that had some lucky wins. They have some good leadership with seniors like Markell Johnson and CJ Bryce, but they do not shoot the 3 ball too well. One positive is that they still average over 44% from the field. Pittsburgh is one of the worst shooting teams at 40.8% ranking 310th in the nation. This team just got blown out at home by a below average Syracuse team and now they have to go on the road and show up for basically no reason. The Panthers only have 2 away wins this year and one in conference way back vs a very ailing North Carolina team. The other was Robert Morris. I think that NC State takes care of business here and wins by a double digit margin.
NC State -8.5 – 2 star premium shared
Duke vs Virginia +4 O/U 124
- Believe it or not, Virginia is still a bubble team because their best non-conference win is against ASU.
- Virinia won 8 of their last 9 games
- Mamadi Diakite will be on Vernon Carey and if he can slow Carey down, then look out.
- Duke does shoot a 3 much better than last year ranking 78th compared to 324th in 2019.
- I really do not want to go against duke after they just lost 2 out of 3 but Virginia looks like the right side.
Lean Virginia
Auburn vs Kentucky -5.5 O/U 140
I have harped on Auburn a lot this year already but I can safely say that they are the second best team in the SEC. Sorry Florida and LSU. Auburn certainly has their deficiencies. They can be very hot and cold and you can see that from 3 point land. They shoot a lot of threes but they do not make a lot of them ranking 330th and 30%. The good news is that they can rebound very well and they clean up by hitting a very high percentage 2 point shot. Kentucky doesn’t shoot many 3s at all ranking 349th in attempts because they are so big inside that they can usually muscle their way to the hoop. Kentucky can shoot free throws very well as we saw them cover because of it last weekend vs Florida. Auburn doesn’t shoot FTs well but the fact that they are a dog bothers me less for that fact. When it comes to big games like this I usually like to look at the dog, but the fact that Auburn’s home road splits are so bad makes me look towards the other side. Auburn only shoots 39% on the road which is quite bad. Kentucky should be able to clean up a lot of those rebounds with their height. One angle that I did find in this game is that Kentucky plays faster than their tempo ranking 170th in possession length compared to 213th in adjusted tempo and Auburn the same ranking 69th in possession length while 169 in tempo. Both of these teams also are top 15 in free throw attempts so I have to look at the over and lean to Kentucky
Over 140 1.5 stars and lean Kentucky
San Diego State vs Nevada +7 O/U 141
- Nevada has been playing much better lately but they do not have any top 75 wins and this win won’t put them on the 2 seed
- San Diego State needs this win more
- I do wish that San Diego State didn’t lose Nathan Mensah. Now they are small down low and can get beat up in the tournament.
Lean San Diego State
Sunday:
Colorado vs Stanford -1 O/U 129
Stanford is a much better team than their record shows and I think they still have a shot of making the tournament. They need to win their last 3 games against Colorado, Oregon State and Oregon. Stanford had a terrible skid in the pack 12 this year losing at one point 8 out of 9 games. Part of that was because they had some random injuries popping up including their best player Oscar Da Silva. Colorado is in the tournament with wins vs Dayton, Clemson and most of the Pac 12, but I think that their home road splits tell the story. Colorado is a great home team shooting 47% but they only can hit 40% on the road. Stanford is a great shooting team averaging 48.3% at home. They also play great defense ranking 7th in the nation on Kenpom. Their only weakness is holding on the the ball and rebounds but they are taller than Colorado and great at stealing the ball as well which will help even that out. With Stanfords hight percentage and great defensive play, it is shocking to me seeing them where they are at in the Pac 12 and I think this could be a great spot making it a large play on the Cardinal.
Stanford -1 – 3 star premium shared
