Once again, there is a large amount of coaching changes this year for the 2023/2024 college basketball season. As sports bettors, and/or college basketball fans, we all know how important these coaches are to projecting outcomes. Pace is a massive factor when it comes to the point differential as well as the total amount of points that are scored in a game. I categorize each team as Very Fast, Medium Fast, Medium, Medium Slow, Very Slower and NA for not enough information. Keep in mind that these are all projections based on association, and past performance. Here are the coaching changes with my projections for 2023/2024 pace of play. Follow me on twitter for more wagering content @OBKiev.
Pace Rankings:
0 – 40 Very Fast
41 – 120 Medium Fast
121 – 240 Medium
241 to 320 Medium Slow
321 to 366 Very Slow
College Coaches: Out / In
American University Eagles: Mike Brennan / Duane Simpkins – Duane Simpkins comes from George Mason as an assistant that under Kim English plays a medium pace. Last year, American ranked 352nd in pace while I project in the 210s. Very Slow to Medium
Arkansas State Red Wolves: Mike Balado / Bryan Hodgson – This will be massive. Arkansas State ranked 344th in pace while Bryan Hodgson comes from Alabama who ranked 4th last year. Before that he was at Buffalo also under Nate Oats. I project top 10 in pace. Very Slow to Very Fast
Army Black Knights: Jimmy Allen / Kevin Kuwik – Army played an above average pace over the last few years but Kevin Kuwik’s history as an assistant at Davidson and Butler show’s tempos in the low 200s and 300s. I project 290s for pace. Medium Fast to Medium slow
Austin Peay Governors: Nate James / Corey Gipson – Not hard to see that Corey Gipson was at 213th in pace last year at NW State. Under Nate James the Demons ranked 310th. I think it stays the same in the 310s. – Medium to Medium Slow
Bowling Green Falcons: Michael Huger / Todd Simon – Bowling Green’s pace was 56th last year and Todd Simon from Southern Utah averaged around 60th over the past 2 years. I project 60s and no change. – Medium Fast to Medium Fast
Bucknell Bison: Nathan Davis / John Griffin III – Bucknell was 200th in pace under Nate Davis last year and John Griffin as an assistant at Saint Josephs ranked 74th last year. I project in the 80s for pace of play. Medium to Medium Fast
Buffalo Bulls: Jim Whitesell / George Halcovage III – The pace may be the biggest slow down in all of CBB. George Halcovage came from Villanova at a pace ranking 333rd, while Buffalo ranked 12th last year. I project the pace in the 330s. Very Fast to Very Slow
California Golden Bears: Mark Fox / Mark Madsen – Cal was a very slow 343rd pace last year under Fox. Madsen will speed that up ranking 41st last year at Utah Valley. The WAC was a fast paced conference in general so I think that the pace ranks in the 70s. Very Slow to Medium Fast
Cal State Northridge Matadors: Trent Johnson / Andy Newman – Northridge ranked 284th in pace, but hard to tell what Andy Newman will do from a lower division, yet their total final scores were mainly well over 150 points. Seinfeld would say “Newman” will speed it up. I project 30s. – Medium Slow to Very Fast
Charlotte 49ers: Ron Sanchez / Aaron Fearne – Aarone Fearne was promoted to head coach yet this team was super slow paced at 362nd. I don’t think it remains that low but I would say the 320s is fair. Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Coppin State Eagles: Juan Dixon / Larry Stewart – Juan Dixon’s pace ranked 19th at Coppin State while Larry Stewart’s pace was 55th last year as an assistant at Maryland Eastern Shore. Low confidence, but I think not much changes and pace ranked in the 40s makes sense. – Very Fast to Very Fast
East Tennessee State Buccaneers: Desmond Oliver / Brooks Savage – The Buccaneers ranked 268th in pace with Oliver. Brooks Savage was an assistant there for 5 years before being an assistant at Wake forest with a faster pace of 66th. I project the pace in the 70s. Medium Slow to Medium Fast
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights: Tobin Anderson / Jack Castleberry – King of the Castleberry was promoted to head coach and over the last few years, pace averaged in the 70s. That looks good to me in the 70s. – Medium Slow to Medium Slow
George Mason Patriots: Kim English / Tony Skinn – Kim English ranked 225 in pace while Tony Skinn comes from the Big 10 as an assistant from a few schools around 280th. I project pace at the 250s – Medium to Medium Slow
Georgetown Hoyas: Patrick Ewing / Ed Cooley – Patrick Ewing did have this team playing faster before his last year ranking 100th in pace. Ed Cooley is around the 200s and that is where I will stay for my projection. Great hire though! – Medium Fast to Medium
Georgia Southern Eagles: Brian Burg / Charlie Henry – Brian Burg ranked 208th in pace last year while Charlie Henry comes from Alabama. I project 20s in pace – Medium to Very Fast
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Josh Pastner / Damon Stoudamire – Pastner ranked 212th in pace last year at Tech. Damon Staudamire’s time with Pacific was about 300th in pace. That looks good to me in the 290s – Medium to Medium Slow
Green Bay Phoenix: Will Ryan / Sundance Wicks – Will Ryan was at 292nd in pace while Will Ryan as an assistant at Wyoming was around the 280s himself. No change and I will say in the 280s in pace. – Medium Slow to Medium Slow
High Point Panthers: GG Smith / Alan Huss – GG Smith ranked 20th in pace at Highpoint while Alan Huss was in the middle as an assistant at Creighton over the past few years, however I believe he goes back to his faster roots in Creighton’s earlier years. I say they rank in the 70s in pace.. – Very fast to Medium Fast
Holy Cross Crusaders: Brett Nelson / Dave Paulsen – Coach Nelson was at 89th in pace while Dave Paulson at Fordham last year as an assistant ranked 53rd. Gonna go with 60s this year – Medium Fast to Medium Fast
Idaho Vandals: Zac Claus / Alex Pribble – Idaho last year ranked 257th in pace while Alex Pribble at Seattle as an assistant ranked 86th. I am going to say 100s in pace for 2024. – Medium Slow to Medium Fast
Incarnate Ward Cardinals: Carson Cunningham / Shane Heirman – Carson Ranked 192nd in pace for the Cardinals while Shane Heirman ranked 179th as an assistant at Central Michigan. I think he goes back closer to his roots as an assistant at Depaul and ranks around 130s in pace. – Medium to Medium
Iona Gaels: Rick Pitino / Tobin Anderson – No change here at all. Rick Pitino ranked 103rd while Tobin Anderson ranked 106th last year at Fairleigh Dickinson. 100s is the answer. – Medium Fast to Medium Fast
Kennesaw State Owls: Amir Abdur-Rahim / Antoine Pettway – Kennesaw ranked 121st in pace but Antoine Pettway was an assistant at Alabama who plays lighting speed. By the way, how many assistants did Nate Oats have over there last year? I project top 10s. Medium to Very Fast
Lafayette Leopards: Mike Jordan / Mike McGarvey – No change here at 349th in pace. Jordan was fired and McGarvey takes over. Tempo in the 340s is a good projection. – Very Slow to Very Slow
Manhattan Jaspers: Steve Masiello / John Gallagher – Masiello ranked 186th in pace before he was canned in Manhattan. Gallagher crushed a few watermelons and ranked about the same in Harford who isn’t in the Division 1 anymore. Gonna project 180s. – Medium to Medium
McNeese St. Cowboys: John Aiken / Will Wade – A bit of a downgrade from LSU for the Will Wade slowed it down some in his last year at LSU, but this still should be looked at as an upgrade in pace from 232nd. I will say the pace will be 70s. – Medium Slow to Medium Fast
Montana State Bobcats: Danny Sprinkle / Matt Logie – This team was 221st in pace under Danny Sprinkle the money-line, but Matt Logie coming from Point Loma is hard to find info on. Their website doesn’t even work. – NA
New Hampshire Wildcats: Bill Herrion / Nathan Davis – This team played very slowly ranking 329th in pace. Nathan Davis’s 8 years at Bucknell showed around 200th for pace. I project the pace to rank in the 190s. – Very Slow to Medium
NJIT Highlanders: Brian Kennedy / Grant Billmeier – Brian Kennedy’s Highlanders ranked 229 last year in pace while Grant Billmeier as an assistant at Maryland and Seton hall under Kevin Willard before ranked 326th in pace. I however project 310s in pace in this AEC conference. – Medium to Medium Slow
New Mexico State Aggies: Greg Heiar / Jason Hooten – Greg Heiar had the Aggies ranked 77th in pace while Jason Hooten at Sam Houston State ranked 314. I expect pace in the 300s. – Medium Fast to Medium Slow
Nicholls Colonels: Austin Claunch / Tevon Saddler – Austin Claunch had this team running ranking 36th in pace. Now Tevon Saddler takes over and when he was an assistant at McNeese State, he ranked 232 in pace. I expect him in the 230s. – Very Fast to Medium Slow
North Carolina A&T Aggies: Phillip Shumpert / Monte Ross – The Aggies ranked a pretty fast 45th in pace while Monte Ross over at Temple as an assistant under Aaron McKie ranked 251st. I expect pace in the 230s. – Medium Fast to Medium Slow
North Texas Mean Green: Grant McCasland / Ross Hodge – The Mean Green have been amazing over the past few years with an amazingly slow pace ranking 363rd. Ross Hodge is promoted with Grant McCasland heading over to Texas Tech and I expect the very same pace in the 360s – Very Slow to Very Slow
Northwestern State Demons: Corey Gipson / Rick Cabrera – The Demon’s ranked 213th in pace while Rick Cabrera was at a Tallahassee community college the last two years, but before that he ranked around 170th in pace as an assistant at Arkansas State. I say it stays in the 170s for Rick – Medium to Medium
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Mike Brey / Micah Shrewsberry – Not much of a pace change from Mike Brey slowing down every last few seasons to 304th in pace to Micah Shrewsberry ranking 320th in pace at Penn Sate. I will however say that sometimes they would place fast and efficient. I project 290s. – Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Ole Miss Rebels: Kermit Davis / Chris Beard – Leave it up to a desperate Ole Miss to hire the baggage of Chris Beard. Either way, the pace stays the same from 239th to about 236th over his careers. Should be in the 230s. – Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles: Paul Mills / Russell Springmann – This team was awesome and Paul Mills deserves his mid-major job at Witchita State. Pace should remain the same being on top over the past few years averaging about 40th with promoted assistant coach Russell Springmann. Pace should be in the 30s. Very Fast to Very Fast
Penn State Nittany Lions: Micah Shrewsberry / Mike Rhoades – As mentioned earlier, Micah Shewsberry was at 304th in tempo last year at Penn State while Mike Rhoades was at 130s over the past few years at VCU. Now Mike Rhoades has his kids playing great defense so be careful. I suspect 200s in pace in the Big 10. Medium Slow to Medium
Providence Friars: Ed Cooley / Kim English – Also as discussed earlier, Ed Cooley was too cool for the Friars school and ranked around the 200s for pace while Kim English ranked around 225th at George Mason. I expect 240s in pace in the Big Easy. – Medium to Medium
Quinnipiac Bobcats: Baker Dunleavy / Tom Pecora – Out comes baker and in comes Tom Pecora who was his assistant. The Pace ranked 54th for the Bobcats and I expect the same in the 50s. Medium Fast to Medium Fast
St. John’s Red Storm: Mike Anderson / Rick Pitino – Mike Anderson wins the pace award at number 1 but too bad that doesn’t hold his Job. Rick Pitino comes in with even more baggage than Chris Beard. He should play a medium fast pace in the 90s. Very Fast to Medium Fast
Sam Houston Bearkats: Jason Hooten / Chris Mudge – The Bearkats were a hoot last year and ranked 314th in pace during Hooten’s tenure while Chris Mudge gets promoted to run the show. I expect 310s but please change your last name Chris. Medium Slow to Medium Slow
South Florida Bulls: Brian Gregory / Amir Abdur-Rahim – Brian Gregory is out after ranking 133rd in pace at the Bulls while Amir Abdur-Rahim ranked about 121st in pace. I project 120s in this anti-climatic situation. – Medium to Medium
Southern Jaguars: Sean Woods / Kevin Johnson – Sean Woods was so fast that he lost fast ranking 27th in pace while Kevin Johnson coms from being an assistant at Tulane who played lightning fast themselves ranking 2nd in pace. I will say their pace will rank in the 10s. – Very Fast to Very Fast
Southern Utah Thunderbirds: Todd Simon / Rob Jeter – The Thunderbirds played light the Lightning Birds last year ranking 16th in Tempo while Rob Jeter comes in from Western Illinois ranking 207th. I project pace ranking in the 200s. – Very Fast to Medium
Syracuse Orange: Jim Boeheim / Adrian Autry – Jim Boeheim finally hung up his many final 4 nets to walk off into the sunset. Assistant Adrian Autry gets promoted and should play at a faster pace. He will abandon the 2-3 zone. I project pace in the 80s – Medium to Medium Fast
Temple Owls: Aaron McKie / Adam Fisher – So Aaron ranked 251st in pace last year while Adam was an assistant at Penn State that ranked 304th in tempo. I think the Tempo stays close to the same in the 240s. The Big 10 is just slower. – Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders: Steve Lutz / Jim Shaw – Pretty easy here. Jim Shaw was promoted from assistant while the Islanders ranked 88th in pace. I project 80s. Medium Fast to Medium Fast
Texas Longhorns: Chris Beard / Rodney Terry – Not much change here as Rodney Terry holds on to the starting job after winning the Big 12 tournament keeping pace in the 90s. – Medium Fast to Medium Fast
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Mark Adams / Grant McCasland – This team was all kinds of Medium with Mark Adams ranking 180th in pace. Grant McCasland from North Texas is slower than Molasses in January. Projection is 360s and the slowest team in basketball. Medium to Very Slow
UT Arlington Mavericks: Greg Young / K.T. Turner – Turner has hopped around as an assistant but this team ranked 260th with Greg Young and Turner may not change that. Projection is 250s. Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Utah State Aggies: Ryan Odom / Danny Sprinkle – Danny Sprinkle the Money-line should slow this team down some from 111th in pace. I project 220s. Medium Fast to Medium Slow
Utah Valley Wolverines: Mark Madsen / Todd Phillips – Ranking at 41st in Pace with the Mad man Mark Madsen, Todd Phillips is promoted to play a pace ranking about the same in the 40s. Medium Fast to Medium Fast
Valparaiso Beacons: Matt Lottich / Roger Powell – Matt Lottich ranked 150th in pace last year with the Beacon’s while Roger Powell comes from the Zags. Pace should move up to the 30s. – Medium to Very Fast
VCU Rams: Mike Rhoades / Ryan Odom – Mike Ranked 130th in pace at VCU with Ryan Odem was 111th at Utah State. I think this team trends up in the 90s. – Medium to Medium Fast
Western Illinois Leathernecks: Rob Jeter / Chad Boudreau – Rob Jeter ranked 207th in pace with the Leathernecks (awesome name by the way), while Bordreau got promoted from assistant here and should rank about the same. I project 200s in Pace. – Medium to Medium
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Rick Stansbury / Steve Lutz – While Rick Stansbury worn out his welcome at Western Kentucky with a medium pace at 165th, Steve Lutz should speed it up some to the 110s from his tenure at Corpus Christi. – Medium to Medium Fast
West Virginia Mountaineers: Bob Huggins / Josh Eilert (interim) – Huggy Bear is gone while Josh Eilert gets a temporary promotion to prove himself. Pace was at 116th last year and I think that stays the same with the full court press. – Medium Fast to Medium Fast
Wichita State Shockers: Isaac Brown / Paul Mills – It wasn’t a shocker to see Isaac Brown fired who ranked 230th in pace. Paul Mills from Oral Roberts will really speed it up here into the 30s. – Medium Slow to Very Fast
Wofford Terriers: Jay McAuley / Dwight Perry – I do not expect a ton of change here with Jay McAuley’s assistant moving in to take the reigns. the Terriers ranked 291st in pace and I project pace in the 260s. – Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Thoughts from Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterSports
