Kentucky vs Tennessee +2.5 O/U 139
I have to think that these two teams might be the best lift in the SEC especially with Auburn and LSU out of the mix. In saying that, I have to look at these two teams from a matchup standpoint. Kentucky is fantastic near proximity ranking number 2 in the nation, but Tennessee is 14th in guarding it. Tennessee only ranks number 115th on offense near the rim and Kentucky 62nd on defense. Advantage Kentucky. From three point land, neither team is great at defending it but Kentucky ranks 14th in the nation in shooting the three vs the average opponent and Tennessee ranks 51st. Advantage Kentucky. From a coaching standpoint, Rick Barns has never been a good late season/tournament coach while John Calipari has credentials that are very hard to match. Advantage Kentucky. The most important stat to me during this game is really the home/away from homes splits. Kentucky ranks 196th away from home and Tennessee ranks 329th. That is significant enough for me to lay points under the 3.
Kentucky -2.5 – 2 stars
Virginia Tech vs Duke -6 O/U 137
It has been a pretty common theme here with the Duke boys during the tournament. They have been coming out of the gate slow. It’s hard to quantify why that is, but I think that there is value playing the recent trend. Looking at the whole season, Duke is a deserving favorite but it should be a tad under the spread at about 5 points. The reason for that is the recent trends on these teams. Duke hasn’t covered their last three games while Virginia tech has dominated and has gotten better especially from a defensive perspective. Virginia tech has also dominated the first halves in their last 5 games. They are methodical and slow the game down. The trend lines show a massive increase in all play percentage for Virginia Tech on Haslmetrics and a downslope for Duke.
Now I don’t trust Virginia Tech and the “momentum” for the full game due to Duke’s easy first two games and the Coach K farewell rally, but I like the Pokes for the first half.
Virginia Tech 1st half +3 – 2.5 stars
