It’s March baby, and the madness has already started. I think that there is some value in some of the futures on these smaller conference tournaments. There are situations where there are home teams and situations where the whole tournament is played on a neutral court. Here are some of my thoughts and plays.
The Horizon League: Robert Morris +270 to win – This tournament is first played at home, and then moves to Indianapolis for the semi-finals and finals. The Favorite Milwaukee is a solid team, but they have faltered more away from home. The Panthers also lost to the Colonials of Robert Morris twice this year. Cleveland state was at one time the top team, but they faltered down the stretch losing five of their last eight games. Give me the to seed here.
The Summit League: Omaha +450 to win – This lovely tournament will be played at the Denny Sanford PREMIER Center in Sioux Falls South Dakota. Now this might give a little edge to the Dakota teams, but it isn’t like this conference is not used to travel. There is literally nothing better to do than watch college basketball if you live in these parts. The top seed is Omaha, and they only have the 4th best odds of winning it at +450. St Thomas has been the strongest team in this conference, yet a win doesn’t get them to the big dance as they are ineligible. The Omaha Maverick’s have beaten all three of the top seeds once this year, so I can’t see why they would not do it again as they have an efficient offense and play quite well on the road.
The CAA: Towson +450 to win – This tournament will be played at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C. This is another situation where the one seed is quite disrespected. The Favorite UNC Wilmington had lost to Towson in their only matchup back on January 2nd. The Seahawks certainly have improved since, but so did the Tigers who rank 189th in offensive efficiency and 143rd in defensive efficiency. The other seed to worry about is Charleston who has been deemed the third luckiest team in college basketball.
The WCC: St Mary’s +130 to win – This conference tournament is in Vegas at the Orleans Arena starting on Thursday. The only two teams that can contend are Gonzaga at -125 and St Mary’s at +130. I honestly have no clue why Saint Mary’s is only the second favorite here behind a Gonzaga team that the Gaels had beaten twice this year during the regular season. This is where efficiency sites tend to get it wrong. Just because a team with a solid fast paced offense puts extra points up on the bad teams doesn’t make them any better when finally playing a good defense. Gonzaga might be playing for their post season homes, but Saint Mary’s is very disrespected here. Take the Gaels.
