We’re back with a Wednesday Free Play for everyone! So far this season we’re up 27.63 Units in college basketball thanks to a 23-4-1 seven day run last week. This week we’re 4-3 so far and looking to add some more to the bankroll tonight with three games we like on the docket.
My Free play features the West Virginia Mountaineers (11-8 Overall, 1-6 Big 12) traveling to Lubbock, Texas to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-9 Overall, 0-7 Big 12). They will tip it off at 7:00 ET.
Both these teams are struggling in the most dominant conference in the nation up to this point. They have however for the most part played competitive games and had chances to earn more victories than they have shown so far. Texas Tech only has two double digit losses in conference play, and West Virginia only one. The Red Raiders are led by Senior Forward Kevin Obanor who averages 14.7 points per game and 6.3 boards per contest. Texas Tech is very balanced in scoring with six players averaging at least 9.6 points per game. West Virginia also has great balance with 5 players scoring 10 or more points per game. They are led by senior forward Tre Mitchell at 13.1 points per game.
For me this one comes down to a few main factors. First Texas Tech cant seem to find their footing on offense since the start of conference play. Kenpom has their offensive efficiency rating at 94.1 in Big 12 play which would put them in the bottom 50 overall in the country for the season. West Virginia plays solid defense across the board checking in at 42nd on Kenpom with AdjD. The other piece of the puzzle I dialed in on is turnovers. West Virginia forces them on 22.1% of opponents possessions and is 9th in the country in defensive field goal attempt rate. Texas Tech turns the ball over on 20.5% of their trips down the court. They are 278th in points allowed off turnovers and really struggle against teams that apply defensive pressure which West Virginia does very well, especially in the half court. Both teams have opposite home/road performance splits this season as well with West Virginia better away from Morgantown and Texas Tech struggling more in Lubbock. The last piece of the equation for me is the guys behind the benches. Mark Adams went 12-6 in his first season in Lubbock, but that as mostly with Chris Beard’s players that stuck around. His head coaching record at Texas Pan-American, although a long time ago was less than stellar. Bob Huggins’ teams haven’t been great the last five years, but this is a guy with an almost .700 career win percentage and 927 career head coaching victories. The game hasn’t passed him by and I trust him to push the right buttons in this one. I think the wrong team is favored tonight. Get behind Huggy Bear.
Take West Virginia +3.5 points for 1 Unit and West Virginia ML +140 for 1 Unit
