Got a Big Monday free play to kick off the college basketball week. So far this season we are now riding a six game losing streak and losing 3 flips at 6-10 and -5.65 Units. My process is fine and we’ll get back on the winning track starting tonight. We are 1-0 in our Free Play articles here at Theoddsbreakers.com.
My free play features the VMI Keydets (1-1) traveling to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) The line sits at South Carolina -22 with the Over/Under checking in at 150.
It’s season 2 of the Lamont Paris era as he looks to build the Gamecocks into a contender in the SEC. He lost NBA prospect GG Jackson to the league, but only loses two other significant contributors in his mostly eight man rotation. Guard Meechie Johnson is their leading returning piece and the Gamecocks went as he did in 2022-2023. They also have two solid pillars in their incoming transfers, both who played a huge role in their victory over Virginia Tech on Friday. B.J. Mack is a 6’8″ 270Lb monster from Wofford who looks to dominate inside and Myles Stute is a sharp-shooting wing coming in from Vanderbilt.
VMI was one of the youngest team in all of college hoops last season and it showed as they only managed to win seven games overall and just two in the SoCon. They are still one of the youngest teams with two key seniors graduating and more incoming freshman due to some upper class move outs. In fact they had some lineups in their first two contests where five Freshman were on the floor at the same time. They are led by Brennan Watkins a junior guard who has the ability to light it up from deep.
We are only a few games in, but South Carolina has shown marked improvement this year so far. They should be a more well rounded team this season with a much stronger presence around the paint. In 2022-2023 VMI was ranked 361st out of 363 D1 teams in defensive efficiency at KenPom. The offense didn’t top 300 either and just didn’t have a way to get back in games once they fell behind.
If there’s a model for Lamont Paris teams who comes from the Bo Ryan school of basketball it is play suffocating defense, don’t turn the ball over and work the clock on offense looking for the best possible shot. They were 323rd in adjusted tempo last year with VMI checking in at 209th. This setup leads me to support a scoring model in which South Carolina gets up early and slows it down and coasts to victory through defensive triumphs. If you look at the South Carolina non-conference wins from last season and this year they are 8-2 to the under of this total at 150. Look for a game similar to what happened against USC Upstate to kickoff the year. I’ve got this one at 82-62.
Take Under 150 for 1.5 Units
