We have a Tuesday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a solid slate of games returning from the holidays. Today is always the day I look at where my handicapping calendar officially flips over to being almost entirely College Basketball. With Bowl season behind us and only the NFL playoffs on the horizon my focus is now 90% CBB and this is usually when we get hot every year. In January and February last year we went 109-81-8 +25.79 Units. Overall record here early on the CBB year is 54-55 dropping 8.82 Units so the big turn around is coming. Free picks record here at TheOddsbreakers.com sits at 3-1 on College Hoops this season. We have 3 CBB selections on the card tonight.
My free play today takes us to Fort Collins, CO for some late night KNAction featuring the New Mexico Lobos (12-1) stopping to visit the Colorado State Rams (12-1). This is the Mountain West conference opener for both teams and the current line sits at CSU -3.5 with the over/under checking in at 158.
The New Mexico Lobos come into this game winners of eleven straight contests. The Lobos also got some good news this afternoon as both leading scorer Guard Donovan Dent (Quad) and Guard Tru Washington (illness) sound like they are good to go tonight. This will be one of the few times this year where Jamal Mashburn Jr., Dent and Guard Jaleen House will be on the floor together and it should help them out long term, but I do have some concerns with how the points and time on the floor gets distributed. On defense this group is a heavy pressure team that tends to foul a lot. Both KenPom and Haslametrics rank NMU’s offense right around 50th overall in the country. While they are certainly a top tier offense their effective FG% is lower than some other squads putting up the points they are as a lot of their success has been through pressing and pushing the ball to get solid looks in transition. Their average possession length is only 15.3 seconds. Their only blemish on the season was at the hands of a good St. Mary’s team who slowed the game down and really got the Lobos out of their rhythm.
Colorado State is led by Senior Guard Isaiah Stevens who is putting up 17.3 PPG, dishing out 7.3 APG, and only 2.5 Turnovers per contest. He is shooting 45.8% from 3-point land and 53.6% overall. The rest of the team is no slouch when it comes to shooting either as they are #3 in the country in effective field goal percentage. They are also #3 in the nation in assists per field goals made. This team is also cashing in at the charity stripe where they are hitting 77.6% of their free throws. If they have a weakness it is on the defensive side of the ball where they are 202nd in defensive effective FG%. Their only loss was also to the St. Mary’s Gaels in a 64-61 defensive battle.
Both these teams have outpaced early expectations with UNM 9-3 and CSU 8-3 against the spread respectively. I had CSU as one of my teams to watch early this season and have been rewarded on their side a few times. I am actually looking to fade them in the right situations as the public and Vegas starts to weight them a little too heavy. That being said I am back on the Rams tonight. My concerns for UNM are three-fold. First, I think when two fairly evenly matched teams play the one who dictates their style usually comes out ahead, and I believe CSU will actively slow this game down and get into the half court whenever they can. They are 16th best in the country in taking care of the ball so the UNM pressure should be something they can handle. Plus being the conference opener for both teams there is usually some familiarity which tends to lead to slower starts which will favor CSU. Second, UNM hasn’t dealt with any opponent with the offensive skill set of Colorado St. In fact they haven’t played a Top 100 offense yet on the season. Their defense will be getting it’s first real test and I don’t think they can hold up. Finally third, Colorado State will win this game and cover at the charity stripe. New Mexico only hits on 68.9% of attempts while UNM averages 18.9 fouls per game. With CSU hitting over 77% from the stripe the over aggressiveness of UNM will be tough to overcome if they collect fouls instead of CSU turnovers.
Take Colorado State -3.5 for 1.5 Units
