We’ve got a Thursday Free Play tonight for everyone. I’ve been home sick with the whole family all week with everyone’s favorite virus, so every evening I’ve been able to do some serious looking in at my favorite conferences. We’ve been dominating in the Summit, Big West, Big Sky, WAC and WCC. We’re up 33.60 Units on the season with a large chunk of that profit coming on Thursday in those conferences. Currently on a 25-5 Thursday run since the New Year. This week so far we are at 7-3-1 and we will look to keep Thursdays rolling along!
My Free Play features the Utah Valley Wolverines (21-6 Overall, 12-2 WAC) traveling to Stephenville, Texas to take on the Tarleton State Texans (14-14 Overall 7-8 WAC). The Line currently sits at Utah Valley -2.5 with the Over/Under sitting at 137.
This will be the first and only meeting this season between these two clubs. Utah Valley comes in riding a six game winning streak. The Wolverines have 4 players averaging double digits in scoring and are led by Junior Guard Le’Tre Darthard at 13.9 Points Per Game. Tarleton State has dropped 4 of their last 6 contests, but they have been in every game until the end. The Texans have 2 players in double digits led by Sophomore Guard Freddy Hicks who sits at 15.7 Points Per Game.
Utah Valley will try and push the pace in this one to free up their offense and get easy baskets in transition. The actual head to head numbers when the Wolverines have the ball are very even in efficiency rating with maybe even a slight edge to the Texans. What Tarleton State will have to find a way to contend with is 7 Foot Sophomore Center Aziz Bandaogo who is averaging a double-double. Tarleton State’s biggest body goes 6’7″ so they are going to have a big size issue to deal with. Utah Valley can put 3 guys up front 6’9″ or bigger so look for them to pound the rock inside when they don’t get transition chances.
Tarleton State will have to find a way to score when they have the ball. They do two things really well on offense. Number One is take care of the ball, ranking 23rd in the country in TO%. Number 2 is getting to the line as they are #4 in the country in Free Throw Attempt Rate. That being said they struggle elsewhere offensively. They shoot 47% from inside the arc and 34.6% outside of it. They’ll need those 3 point shots to drop to keep up in this one because Utah Valley is a top 40 overall defense and is by far the best defensive unit in the WAC. They hold opponents to 31.4% from distance and only 43% inside the arc. They also have the 8th best block ratio in the country. With the Texans lack of size inside look for them to be launching from distance early and often as I think they’ll struggle to get to the line.
It’s all about that Utah Valley defense here as Tarleton has struggled to score against the other top WAC defenses putting up 58 Points per Game against the other 3 Top defenses in the WAC. I’ve got this one at 71-64. This Wolverine team can actually play. Hail To The Valley Victors!
Take Utah Valley -2.5 for 2 Units.
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