Jacksonville State vs Belmont -7.5 O/U 146
Here’s the deal. Jacksonville state hung with this Belmont team losing by 7 at home and later only by 4 on the road. I am not saying that 3rd time is the charm or anything, I am just going by what I know about these teams. Jacksonville State has the better defensive adjusted effective FG% at 48.1% to 48.8%, and they shoot the 3 ball when needed just about as good as can be. Nick Muszynski for Belmont is just coming off of an injury and played a few minutes last game so I have to wonder if he might still be ailing a bit. In these team’s last game, Jacksonville State did a great job in slowing it down to 64 possessions. That is part of the formula for beating Belmont. Part of the reason that this line is so high is that the Gamecocks are coming off of an overtime win. I factor that in when it comes to regular season play but elimination games are different. These kids are young and they can hang for a few days in a row in these situations. Either way, Bart Torvik has this line at 5.4, Kenpom has it at 5 and I have it at 6.5. I think it is worth taking a shot here in such an important game with the disrespected barking dog.
Jacksonville State +7.5 – 1.5 star and sprinkle ML
