We have a Friday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a small slate of games. In January and February last year we went 109-81-8 +25.79 Units. We’ve had a good run to start 2024 gaining just over 8 units. Overall year record here in CBB year is 71-70 dropping 5.83 Units so the big turn around is coming. Free picks record here at TheOddsbreakers.com sits at 4-1 on College Hoops this season. We have 1 CBB selection on the card tonight.
My free play today takes us to Charlotte, NC for some Atlantic Sun Action featuring the Queens Royals (7-10 Overall, 1-1 ASUN) hosting the visiting Stetson Hatters (10-7 Overall, 2-1 ASUN). The line checks in with Stetson as a slight favorite at -1.5 and the over/under sitting at 158.5
The Stetson Hatters are a squad led by upperclassman with only one underclassman averaging more than ten minutes per contest. They lost in their last game 88-70 to Kennesaw State, but have put together some solid efforts so far this season including wins over UCF and Charlotte. On offense they go as Junior Shooting Guard Jalen Blackmon goes. He is averaging 22.4 points per game while shooting it at 45.8% overall and 41.2% from distance. He is also a 93% Free Throw shooter. They are 8-4 when he gets to 20 points and 2-3 when he comes up short. On the defensive end they feature a pair of twin tower rim protectors in 6’11” Aubin Gateretse and 7’0″ Treyton Thompson clogging up the lane.
The Royals enter the game coming off a home win against FGCU 78-75. Prior to that they also fell to Kennesaw State 80-77. Queens likes to play an up tempo pace checking in at 19th in adjusted temp and 21st in average possession length at 15.4 seconds. They run out a deep bench to keep pushing that tempo and keep guys fresh with eleven players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Junior guard Deyton Albury leads them at 16.6 points per game. The Royals typically will run out a four guard lineup and rely on their pressure and speed to drive their defense and turn it into offense. They are subject to getting in some foul trouble as well especially when playing from behind.
Stetson is 8-6 against the spread and Queens is 6-9. This is going to be a battle of styles as Stetson will look to control the game in the half court and Queens will look to force turnovers and push the pace with getting easy transition points. Both these teams struggle keeping opposing teams off the score sheet. Queens is 307th in defensive efficiency according to Haslametrics while Stetson checks in at 313th.
The difference in this game however isn’t going to be decided at that end of the floor. The difference in this contest will be in how these teams attack those weak defenses. Both of these teams rank high in the percentage of their points coming from distance as Stetson is 23rd in percent of points coming from 3’s while Queens is 47th. First and Most Important, Stetson is rocking an effective field goal percentage of 51.6% while Queens is 335th defensively in that category allowing 54.5%. Stetson should have a distinct advantage there. Both of these teams rank high in the percentage of points coming from distance as Stetson is 23rd in percent of points coming from 3’s while Queens is 47th. Stetson shoots from distance much better at 35.8% while Queens checks in at 31.9%. Queens does defend the three better than Stetson, but in this clash of styles most of the Queens 3-point attempts will come in quick transition and it shouldn’t be as much of a factor as far as how the Hatters defense plays. The final factor in the outcome of this game will be free throws. Stetson is hitting an NCAA best 83.6% of their attempts from the charity stripe, with their top three players in minutes per game all over 90%. Queens is at 70.2% from the line. Stetson only gets to the line 15.3 times per contest, but with a pressure team as their opponent that number should be higher tonight as Queens will likely get them to the bonus in both halves.
Queens has been very good at home holding down a 6-1 record while Stetson is only 2-6 on the road. Stetson has been very inconsistent this season, but when both teams bring their best games Stetson has an advantage that should be more than enough to overcome the home court magic the Royals have enjoyed so far this season. The only way Queens stays relevant in this one is if they shoot the lights out from three, as Stetson should hold and edge in the lane and in the half court on both ends of the floor.
Take Stetson, -1.5 for 1.5 Units
