We have a Friday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a nice slate of games. Current CBB record on the season is a mundane 51-51-1, hoping to get on track here coming toward February.
My free play today takes us to Highland Heights, KY for some Horizon League Action featuring the Northern Kentucky Norse (9-11 Overall, 4-5 Horizon) hosting the Milwaukee Panthers (14-7 Overall, 7-3 Horizon). The line checks in with Milwaukee as a slight favorite at -1.5 and the over/under sits at 142.
The Norse started the season 0-4, and have also dropped their last 4 games. Those eight losses are sandwiched around a 9-3 stretch. Their best win in that stretch was against Purdue Fort Wayne at home in OT on New Years Day. They’ve struggled against the best teams in the Horizon league with 3 of their 4 conference wins coming against the worst teams in the league. The Norse are led by Trey Robinson who is averaging 15.7 PPG. They’ve struggled to find him a supporting cast with only two other Norse averaging in double figures.
Milwaukee is 2-2 away from home in Horizon League play so they can be beaten. They had a nice bounce back on Wednesday night winning at Wright State after dropping a heartbreaker at home vs Robert Morris last weekend. Milwaukee junior Jamicheal Stillwell has played well of late. Stillwell put on a show, scoring 26 points and shooting 62.5% from the floor against Robert Morris on Sunday. Following this match-up, he was honored as the Horizon League Player of the Week for his efforts, which was a program first. Themus Fulks leads Milwaukee with 15.4 PPG and they feature five players who average in double figures.
Here’s the keys to tonight:
Northern Kentucky likes to play slow, and Milwaukee will look to push. In games against top tempo teams thus far the Norse have not played well losing to Akron by 13, Charleston by 15 and Youngstown State by 11. Milwaukee isn’t quite as talented as those first two teams, but they thumped Youngstown State by 15 a few weeks back. Milwaukee should be able to run on the Norse and get some easy looks.
The biggest key metric will be on the glass. Milwaukee is 5th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage and 6th in second chance points conversions. Northern Kentucky is at 288th in giving up offensive rebounds and 353rd in allowing second chance point conversions. On the Flip side Milwaukee is 27th in offensive rebounds allowed percentage.
The Panthers should win this game on the boards and with easy buckets and handily cover the 1.5
Milwaukee -1.5, 2 Units
