Made a nice recovery on college basketball after a rough start to the week. 9-10-1 overall on the season. 5 Total plays for me today. 2 Free picks here and 3 plays available to premium subscribers at Theoddsbreakers.com. Let’s get to the analysis.
Towson vs Pittsburgh (-6.5) O/U 132.5
Towson visits Pittsburgh on Friday evening boasting a 2-1 record coming off a 24 points win against Hampton. Prior to that they dropped an eight point decision to Monmouth and opened with a 21 point win against Albany. Pittsburgh is 1-2 to start the season and are also coming off a win, and 8 point victory over UNCW. They lost their first two games, by 15 points to West Virginia and 15 to The Citadel
Towson labored through multiple COVID stoppages last season on their way to a 4-14 campaign. They return three starters, but It’s almost an entirely new team with 7 new faces this year. Four transfers are featured in the new rotation including three players who averaged over 10 ppg for their previous team. The best of which so far has been Cam Holden a UT-Martin transfer averaging 14.3 PPG and 10.7 RPG to start the season.
Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly been sharp to begin the year. They return 4 starters from a team that went 10-12 last season. They have been trying to push the ball inside for close looks and hoping to get to the free throw line. To that end they have had some success, but it has come at a price as they only shot four 3 point field goals their last game. They are shooting 45% from the field (22.2% from distance) and while they have gotten to they line they have not taken advantage shooting 53.2% so far. 6’9″ 280Lb Sophmore Forward John Hugley is leading the way with 19 points per game and he should have success against a small Towson interior.
I see this as a game where Pittsburgh controls the glass and keeps Towson off the score sheet very similar to how their last match-up went with UNCW. The Panthers defense is the difference here. Gimme Pitt -6.5 for 1.5 Units
Ohio vs Kentucky (-12.5) O/U 150
The Ohio Bobcats visit Rupp Arena tonight to on the Kentucky Wildcats. The Bobcats come into the game with a 3-0 record with all three wins coming by double digits against Robert Morris, Cleveland State and Belmont. Kentucky is 2-1 with a season opening loss to Duke and 2 blowout wins against Robert Morris and Mt. St. Mary’s. Very unusual to have a common opponent this early in the season, but it does provide some insights.
Last year Ohio went 17-7 and was a No. 13 seed in the tourney. They lost star guard Jason Preston to the NBA, but return four experienced starters. Ohio comes into the game putting up 81.3 PPG at 44.5% from the field including an average of 12 3-Point FGs per game (38.3% from distance) They Bobcats go 6’5″, 6’8″, 6’8″ across the front line, but have rebounded the ball well so far with just over 11 Offensive boards per game. Sophomore guard Mark Sears leads thew scoring at 19.3 PPG in the early season.
John Calipari and the Wildcats look to retool after an awful 9-16 campaign last year. They have brought in their usual crop of talented freshman, but Coach Cal has also dipped into the transfer market this year to solidify some weaknesses. Kentucky has played well since the loss to Duke and are averaging 83.7 PPG in the early going. They are shooting 48.8% from the floor and 45.1% from distance. Junior Forward Oscar Tshiebwe a transfer from West Virginia leads the team in scoring at 18.7 PPG.
I’ll take a look at common opponent Robert Morris quick, but dont read too much into it as its always really about the matchup during the game youre looking at for me. Ohio took an 8 point lead into halftime and never looked back as it never got closer than 7 in the second half. This was their worst game from distance at 8 for 24, but they dominated on the offensive glass and only had 10 turnovers which lead to 14 more Field Goal attempts than Robert Morris. They won 85-71. Kentucky dominated the entire game against RMU winning by 40 points 100-60. They shot 57.1% (52.2% from distance) and out rebounded RMU 43-24.
Kentucky for the most part has been playing small, fast lineups, but I think they’ll go a little bigger tonight and we will see more of Freshman Forward Daimion Collins. They will try and out muscle the Bobcats on the inside and I see them being able to do so. Combine that with their talent edge at guard and I can see them running away in this one. I like the Wildcats to score and score often.
Taking Kentucky -12 for 2 Units
