College Basketball January 24th – 25th Free Plays

Marquette vs Butler -6 O/U 138

Butler was just a top 5 team and then, all of a sudden, dropped out of the rankings due to losing 3 games in a row.   One thing that you can’t take away from Butler is how well that they play defense ranking 20th on Kenpom and 13th against 3 point shots.   I mention the 3s because it is very important to this handicap.  Marquette shoots a lot of them and needs to hit a lot of them to keep winning.  They rank 5th in three point percentage thanks to star Marcus Howard and Sacar Amin both over 40%.   They also shoot the 3 pretty often ranking 50th in attempts.   Marquette has been on a nice run lately but they haven’t had to face a defense this good since Seton Hall where the lost on the road by 14 points.  Marquette is a terrible road team who has been outscored by Opponents by 3 points when Butler at home outscores their opponents by 18.  No I know that the Bulldogs lost roll player forward Christian David and it hurts their depth but I think that it could actually help us more getting some value in the line being that he only played 1/3 of each game and they do have some other forwards ready to step up.  Butler rolls with their ability to guard the 3 and I like them up to 7.5

Wisconsin vs Purdue -3 O/U 115

Wisconsin amazingly allows the same average points on the road than they do at home at 60.   Purdue only allows 57 at home compared to 64 on the road.

Purdue’s home road scoring split is Huge at 76 at home and only 58 on the road.  Wisconsin only shoots a terrible 26% from three on the road while Purdue shoots 36% at home.  Both teams are not good at shooting.   Purdue is a matchup nightmare for the Badgers because of how tall they are inside and the Badgers will need to score points from there.   I like Purdue here up to -4 and lean to the under.

Illinois vs Michigan -4 O/U 140

Michigan has been in free fall this month with only 1 win vs Purdue in overtime.   They are not even close to the team that they were a few years back to due to serious churn and a new coach Juan Howard.  Illinois is 4th in the nation in offensive rebounding and I think that make’s up for their ranking of 100th from three point land.   Illinois outranks Michigan in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.  The problem that I have is that it is a let down spot for the Illini after winning at Purdue and more of a get the hell up spot for Michigan who just lost at home to Penn State.

Strong lean to Illinois +4

Baylor vs Florida +2 O/U 129

I really find this game interesting because this and the Kentucky vs Texas Tech game is going to tell us a lot about these conferences and basically which one is better.  Baylor is a great team and maybe the Texas tech of last year.  They went into Texas Tech and Kansas back to back and won.  Their defense ranks 4th in the nation and they play at a slow pace.  In saying all this, they do have a weakness and that is a lower FG% only ranking 183rd.  Their offensive rebounding has helped them ranking 6th in the nation.  Florida is another slower paced team who seems to turn it up when needed as we saw vs Auburn.   They have a slightly better offense but certainly a worse defense.  Florida is a little above average in pretty much everything they do.  I can’t find a matchup advantage here for either team.  One think that I have to credit Florida with this year is their ability to win at home.  They still haven’t lost a game in the swamp and i think there is a chance that they can beat this Baylor team in a strange spot for them in the middle of conference play.  You see, Baylor doesn’t need this win to win their conference and get a number 1 seed in the tournament and Florida might need this win to make the tournament.

Kentucky vs Texas Tech -3 O/U 131

Now this may be the biggest game of the weekend.  Kentucky is still that team who beats up on the wannabee’s and loses to the little sisters of the poor in Utah, South Carolina and Evansville.  They have a very strong inside game but falter from three point land.   Texas tech is a shell of themselves from last year losing to TCU a few days back but they have played very tough at home.   I do not see a coaching advantage here because I really like Chris Beard and think he is a fantastic coach and obviously John Calipari is top 5 according to some.  Now Kentucky does get fouled a ton ranking 8th in the nation in the free throw to field goal attempts ratio but I wonder how friendly the whistles will be in Lubbock and think that this may be more of an under type game.

Washington state vs Utah -4 O/U 145

Now this is a matchup that I have been wanting to break down.  Utah is a lower level Pac 12 team who is much better than people think.   They like to score inside ranking 31st in 2 point FG percentage and they are able to score some points at home.   This team actually has the largest home road splits out of any team scoring 91 points per game at home while only scoring 65 on the road.  That’s a 26 point difference and the reason that they beat teams like BYU, Minnesota and Oregon State all at home.   As a matter of fact, they only lost to Oregon by 5 at home earlier this month.   For all the good that I said about Utah at home you can say the opposite for Washington State.  The Cougars are a below average power 5 team in height and they can’t beat anybody on the road only averaging 67 points per game with 38% shooting from the floor.   Utah has also already played a pretty hard schedule so far especially in the Pac 12 while Washington State’s schedule ranks 345th in the nation.  Utah has the number 11 home court advantage according to Kenpom.  Washington State is 1-4 ATS on the road.  This is a needed win for Utah and I like them at least 2.5 stars up to 5 points.