Welcome to Monday. Started off hot in college basketball last week before a tumble and crash on Thursday puts us at 4-7 to start the year. I realized I need to back off CBB a little bit later in the week as I finish my football prep. We went 197-174-5 in 2020/2021 in CBB so we’ll get it turned around.
Here’s two free plays to start your week off.
San Francisco (-20) vs Samford O/U 151
First off we take a look at The Dons of San Francisco taking on the Bulldogs of Samford in The City by the Bay. Samford has started 2-0 with easy wins over “powerhouses” Maryville TN and Springhill. San Francisco is also undefeated with wins over LIU, Prairie View A&M and Davidson. They were dominant in the first two matchups, but had to hold on after being up by as many as 14 in the second half vs Davidson.
Bucky McMillan’s Samford teams want to get out and run. The were 7th in the country last year in team possessions per game. They took 75 FG attempts vs Maryville and 67 vs Springhill. They are loaded with players who like to run coming in from transfer portal and also in a strange recruiting story landed the #60 recruit in the nation in Wesley Cardet Jr. who is averaging 14.5 ppg so far.
The Dons don’t play quite as fast, but feature one of best players out west in Jamaree Bouyea. He was all WCC first team last year averaging 17.3 PPG. This is a team that has gotten very good looks at the basket so far and are shooting 53.7%, but has also been hurt by turnovers as they are averaging just over 17 Per game to start the year. They will be more than happy to push the pace here and run with Samford.
The Total takes it all into account and is already on high side, but I like the over here in a game where I can see the Don’s getting over 90 and Samford pushing the pace enough to come along for the ride.
Gimme the over 151 for 1.5 Units.
UMKC vs Missouri (-11.5) O/U 128.5
UMKC will take on Mizzou tonight in Columbia. UMKC is coming off 2 losses to Big Ten opponents in Iowa and Minnesota and will face their third straight power 5 opponent to open the season. Missouri was able to win their season opener vs Central Michigan.
For UMKC the Fighting Kangaroos are picked to finish sixth in the Summit League this year. They are led by Josiah Allick who looked good against Minnesota putting up 21 points, but he struggled vs Iowa going only 1 of 4 from the floor. This is a team that wants to slow the pace down and try to grind out wins.
Missouri was missing 3 key players in their first game and are hoping all can be available tonight. Dajuan Gordon (suspension) should be a good role player for them coming over from Kansas St. where he averaged 9.1 ppg and 5.5 rpg last year. He is also a huge influence on defense. They had a 19 point lead against CMU before letting it get within 4. A nice finish put the final tally back at 12. Javon Pickett their only senior should emerge as a leader for Cuonzo Martin’s squad and they will need it to bring the younger players along. He put up 18 points in the opener.
After watching this UMKC team vs a Minnesota squad with basically no major conference talent I struggle to see how they keep this game anywhere close. Missouri isn’t Iowa, but they aren’t Minnesota either. I put this spread closer to -15 so I think there is value here at -11.5.
Mizzou -11.5 for 2 units
