Preview:
I feel that this quadrant is the second hardest in the bracket. There will be only two games on Thursday and 6 on Friday.
Duke, the No. 1 seed, is the team to watch, led by freshman sensation Cooper Flagg. Despite a recent ankle injury, Flagg is expected to return, and his presence could be pivotal for Duke’s championship aspirations. The Blue Devils boast a balanced roster with standout players like Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor.
Alabama, the No. 2 seed, is another powerhouse in this region. Known for their fast-paced offense, the Crimson Tide is led by senior guard Mark Sears. Their depth and scoring ability make them a formidable opponent.
Wisconsin, the No. 3 seed, enters the tournament with a chip on their shoulder after a tough loss in the Big Ten title game. Star guard John Tonje has been a standout, and the Badgers’ experience could give them an edge.
Arizona, the No. 4 seed, brings a mix of talent and experience, with Caleb Love leading the charge. Their fast-paced style and strong rebounding make them a potential dark horse.
Keep an eye on potential upsets, like the matchup between BYU and VCU, which pits an elite pick-and-roll offense against a strong defensive unit. The East Region promises high-stakes drama and unforgettable moments. Here is my breakdown of leans and plays!
Thursday:
Montana vs Wisconsin -16.5 O/U 149.5 – Ball Arena in Denver CO
- Wisconsin should dominate this Montana team as they own pretty much every matchup advantage. The problem is that the Badgers have been incredibly inconsistent and they are hard to trust.
- Normally, I would want to bet on a team that is good and went 15-68 from the field in their last game, but they are just so hard to trust as big favorites.
- Lean Wisconsin -16.5
VCU vs BYU -2.5 O/U 146.5 – Ball Arena in Denver CO
- This is more of a home game for BYU with plenty of Alumni in Denver. I like this team, but they tend to falter when they play someone with a defense.
- BYU has a pretty bad defense ranking only 68th on Kenpom.
- VCU isn’t a great team, but they are also a scrappy team who screwed their chances last year by losing to Duquesne. They will be motivated.
- I don’t like how BYU matches u against VCU as the Rams have a shut down defense.
- Lean VCU
Friday:
Baylor vs Mississippi State -1.5 O/U 144.5 – Lenovo Center Raleigh NC
- Baylor’s strength on Miss State’s weakness is hitting the three ranking 66th on Haslametrics to Miss State 236th at defending it.
- Miss State’s strength is near proximity ranking 15th on Haslametrics to Baylor 215th in defending it.
- Not sure about the side, but I do like the total. The Bulldogs have been pushing the pace with that trend line going up. Baylor plays slow, but will need to keep up. They also have a pretty efficient offense ranking 165th in the nation. I see points.
- Over 144.5 – 3 stars
Robert Morris vs Alabama -22.5 O/U 165.5 – Rocket Arena Cleveland OH
- This is the 2nd largest total of the weekend. Alabama is the fastest paced team in the nation while Robert Morris is somewhere in the middle.
- No reason to bullshit here, Alabama has all of the matchup advantages, but I will say that sometimes it takes them a minute to get cooking, and playing far away from home in the cold spring could add to a slow start.
- What I like about Robert Morris is that they do rebound the ball well. They also are not the worst three point shooting team in the nation. I think they could get blown out late, but will keep it within 13.5 points the first half.
- Robert Morris 1st half +13.5 – 2 stars
Vanderbilt vs St Mary’s -4.5 O/U 136.5 – Rocket Arena Cleveland OH
- I like St Mary’s, but I do not love St Mary’s.
- Vanderbilt has struggled against great defenses this season with a loss to Drake. They did ok in the SEC, but they just can not guard the 3 ranking 337th in opponent three point percentage.
- St Mary’s plays pretty slow with Great defense. Vanderbilt likes a faster pace.
- Neither team have good matchup advantages.
- Lean Under 136.5 or 1st half under 63.5
Akron vs Arizona -14.5 O/U 166.5 – Climate Pledge Arena Seattle WA
- This overpassed Alabama for the largest total of the tournament thus far.
- Arizona does about as good as Caleb Love does. The dude is so inconsistent. One minute he looks like an NBA guy, the next he looks like he is hurting his team.
- Akron’s defense worries me some only ranking 163th in efficiency on Haslametrics, but maybe that’s just cause they let down some as they won every game but 1 since December.
- Play Akron +14.5 – 2 stars
Liberty vs Oregon -7.5 O/U 139.5 – Climate Pledge Arena Seattle WA
- Give me Liberty or give me death?
- Too bad Oregon is playing essentially at home. The line though has already factored it in.
- Liberty will have a three point advantage ranking 3rd in adjusted 3 point percentage on Haslametrics to Oregon ranking 45th in defending it. Oregon will have the advantage down low with Nate Bittle and Brandon Angel.
- The Flames rank 11th in home road splits. I do like that for their chances.
- I wonder where the public will go for the last game of the round of 64.
- Take Liberty +7.5 – 2 stars
Mount St Mary’s/American vs Duke – (More to come)
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