1/26
Michigan vs Indiana +4 O/U 133.5
What happened to this Indiana team that we thought was pretty good after keeping some bigs and Romeo Langford? They started their Big 10 conference schedule in January losing all 5 games that they have played, they turn the ball over at almost 20% and they can’t hit the 3. I do think that the 5 teams that Indiana has played were pretty tough in Michigan, Maryland, Nebraska, Purdue and Northwestern on the road. On the other hand Michigan has flat out balled this year and will be looking for a top seed in the NCAA tournament. Now 2 things stick out to me about Michigan. First they haven’t played that hard of a schedule yet and second, their last 2 game they did not cover the spread and lost straight up in Wisconsin. What’s the deal with only beating Minnesota by 2 points at home on Tuesday? I expect a bounce back here. On the other hand Indiana is plagued by injuries with D’Ron Davis out with an ankle and Devonte Green suspended by coach for some serious locker room issues. I just do not see how Langford and Juwan Morgan make up for all of this lost production.
Michigan -4 and the under 133.5
Buffalo vs Kent State +8 O/U 159
Oh Buffalo. Why are you so good at football and Basketball these last 2 years? Now Buffalo did drop their last game favored by 8 to Northern Illinois shooting only 36% from the field while they average 45%. Even after that Buffalo still is 11-6-1 ATS and 6-3 ATS as an away team. This Bulls team ranks in the top 21 on Kenpom while the Golden Flashes rank 146th. Kent State is a very average team with a good offense and a bad defense beating some pretty good teams like Vanderbilt and Oregon State and overtime vs Toledo on Tuesday. Kent State is 9-7 ATS and 6-4 ATS at home. Last year Kent state won this game at home by 3 points but then lost at Buffalo later by 12 and then by 17 in the Mac tournament. If you look at the straight raw numbers Buffalo should win this game by exactly 9 points. What makes me like Buffalo here is that they are 5-3 ATS after a loss since 2017 and Kent State just played an overtime game vs Toledo which can be a bit draining. I Like how Buffalo can run up the score at the end of a game while their opponent is basically wore out.
Buffalo -8
1/27
Ball State vs Ohio +3 O/U 140
It is quite amazing to me that a team like Ohio ranking 311th in offensive efficiency home now is 10-8. I suppose that would be due to some very good defense. Well Ohio’s defense is pretty good but looking at the numbers it isn’t fantastic by any means. Ball state ranks 63rd on Kenpom at 97 points per 100 possessions in defensive efficiency but that may have to do with having a very easy schedule because they only rank 6th in the MAC conference play at 102.5. On the other hand Ball State is a very good offensive team top 72 at 109.0 adj efficiency on kenpom but only 9th in conference play at 100.8. It’s like both these teams decided to suck when they started playing other Mac teams. Maybe they just got worse because these numbers adjust for strength of opponent. Both teams are 2-4 in the Mac straight up. Ball State has had some injury woes losing Brachen Hazen and Ishmail El Amin earlier in December but now Ohio will be without a few depth positions as well. There are really 2 factors that stick out to me here. First is the trends. Ball State is a 6-2 team ATS on the road while Ohio is 3-6 at home. Its almost like these teams are much better on the road than at home. Secondly, this is a huge revenge game for Ball State getting blown out by Ohio at home 70-52 after playing a double over time game against Eastern Michigan. Ball State is the better team and should be able to cover the 3 points.
Ball State -3
Kansas vs Kentucky -5 O/U 142
Well this is certainly going to be a good game this weekend an a much watch for me. These teams are not too different from each other. Both play great defense with Kentucky rankings 10th and Kansas ranking 11th on Kenpom while Kentucky Edges out Kansas at 20th to 27th in offensive efficiency. There really isn’t a spot play here due to the fact that both of these teams won their last game and have at least 3 days rest. Kentucky is 9-9 ATS and Kansas is 8-11. Kansas is coming into this game with the hardest schedule so far in the league while Kentucky’s schedule ranks 43rd. Now if all things were held equal here I think that this should be a 3 – 4 point spread but not today. Kansas felt a huge injury earlier in January losing their big center Udoka Azubuike and I think he is worth about 3 points to this spread. Kentucky since their Duke loss the first game of the year has ripped through teams like North Carolina, Louisville, Auburn and Mississippi State. Kansas is terrible on the road and 1-3 ATS losing to Iowa State by 17 Arizona State by 4, West Virginia by 1 and barely beating Baylor, I have Kentucky winning this game 76-68.5. Get this one early.
Kentucky -5 big and lean over
