Michigan vs Iowa +5 O/U 142
Ok, which Iowa Hawkeye’s team are we going to get here? The one who looks the part by destroying teams by double digits like Northwestern, Iowa State, Ohio State and Illinois? Or the one who acts big but can’t hang with the big teams like their second half crumble losing at home to Michigan State by 15 after leading at the half or getting spanked by Purdue by 16 points. The thing that gets me about this team is that they have lots of talent and should be playing with the big boys and if there is a spot to do it, it is against this Michigan Wolverines team. Iowa has the capabilities to beat tough teams with their Big center Luka Garza and 6’9 power forward Tyler Cook. As long as Jordan Bohannon is hitting those threes, this team can be unstoppable. On the other side, Michigan has been downright amazing with a defense ranking 1st in the country. The Wolverines have been able to dominate some of the top teams like North Carolina and Villanova. One thing that I did notice though is that Michigan seems to struggle against some of the momentum teams like Wisconsin and Minnesota. Iowa is a huge momentum team and if Michigan gets caught allowing some open looks they could be in a heap of trouble here. Michigan also knows how to play fast if they have to as we saw vs the Tar heels and the Gamecocks. I know that there hasn’t been a ton of situations where Michigan hasn’t controlled their game but when they have played the faster paced teams like Minnesota, South Carolina and Illinois, they couldn’t cover the spread. The Hawkeye’s need a big win against a top rated team and I think they can get it done against the Wolverines and I am not scared to look at the over 142
Iowa +5, ML and Over 142
North Carolina vs Louisville -1 O/U 155
This is a fun one. Huge game for the Tar Heels facing a Cardinals team that has been on a tear lately. Back on January 12th, Louisville beat UNC in Chapel Hill by 21 points and now revenge will be on the Tar Heels minds. Lets break this game down shall we? Both offenses and strength of schedule is too close give an edge. The Cardinals beat Michigan State and the Tar Heels beat Gonzaga. Both of those games were at home. North Carolina is the taller team with a better defense according to Kenpom but Louisville is better at the small things like turnovers, free throws, and steels. Both teams haven’t played their harder ACC schedule yet aka the Virginias, Dukes and Syracuses. UNC did get Virginia Tech at home and won but gave up a ton of points. Looking at these Kenpom numbers there are some things that do not seem to add up to me. North Carolina’s defense ranks 13th while Louisville’s ranks 24th. Looking at some of the teams that they both played, Louisville actually showed a bit better on D. If you look at adjusted defense just in conference play, Louisville ranks 2nd while North Carolina ranks 4th. This is the part where I think you can have an advantage in the line. While North Carolina scores 85 points per game on the road, Louisville only allows 66.7 at home. Louisville scores 80 at home while UNC allows 74 on the road. Going by this split you would say 77-76 in favor of Louisville. I think that the key to this handicap is the fact that Louisville is at home and UNC hasn’t had any huge road wins as of yet. I also think Louisville who plays at a slower pace should be able to slow this thing down a bit and control the game. I like Louisville up to -4 points
Louisville -1 and lean under 155
Nebraska vs Illinois +5 O/U 145
Illinois is actually a team that his a lot better than people think. You have to love how athletic Trent Frazier can be and they definitely have an inside presence with the big Giorgi Bezhanishvili who is from Georgia but not the Georgia that we know. This team is very close in putting it together showing signs of playing as a team when they beat the Gophers at home and exploited Maryland at Madison Square Garden. Nebraska is a team that is living in the past with that fat ranking of 23 on Kenpom and 13-8 record but realistically, they lost 4 games in a row and suffered a devastating blow when Isaac Copland went out a week ago. Since the bookmakers are so overly concerned with numbers over situations, this line is going to come out wrong on Friday night and it is up to you to get this early. I like Illinois down to +2
Illinois +5 and ML
Miami vs Virginia -19 O/U 127
Want to know something sad? The Miami Hurricane’s are 19 points dogs to slow playing Virginia. Want to know something even sadder? Vegas is right and may even need to make it larger. There is absolutely no way in hell that you can bet on this Hurricanes team. Miami is worst in the ACC in defensive efficiency, defensive field goal percentage, blocks and almost the worst in every other category. Miami also is mediocre at best on offense Looking at a team like this, one would think that they need to play fast to try and outscore their opponents but WRONG. The Hurricanes don’t have the depth to keep running the court and therefore rank 213th in average Tempo. We already know Virginia suffocates team with their second best D in the league and slowest play ever at 59.7 possessions per game. When Virginia is up by 20 by the middle of the second half, they will just run the clock and move to the next game. Prepare to fall asleep.
Virginia under 127
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State +2 O/U 121
Ok, let’s try this one again. This game really set up perfectly for me. Kansas State had a nice little let down last week losing to Texas A&M after beating Texas Tech while Oklahoma State secured a much needed emotional win beating South Carolina at home. One thing about this line is that it really set up well for this weekend. Oklahoma State played out of their minds proving that all the injuries that they endured will not affect them. Now it’s time to eye up their potential let down game vs a better K State team. I still do not think Kansas State’s power rating has been upgraded enough with Dean Wade back. Remember that last year, this team was Elite 8. Another thing that I notice is that Kansas State’s defense ranks top 4 in the nation while the Pokes don’t even rank in the top 80. This is a system play as well with the Wildcats coming off of a terrible shooting game. K State bounces back big on the road
Kansas State -2 big
Quick Hitter: Miss State vs Ole Miss -2 Take OLE MISS -2 up to 5 if Nick Weatherspoon’s injury keep him out. If he plays then I only like it at -1 He is the Rebels best player
