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Tennessee vs Auburn -1.5 O/U 131.5
If there is a game that Auburn needs to win, it is this one. The Tigers fought hard in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night, but it ended up being too hard to overcome a 15-20 point home court advantage for the Crimson Tide thus losing in overtime after being up double digits. Auburn isn’t a great team by any means, but they do play some good defense ranking 22nd in efficiency and 4th in opponent three point percentage. The Vols shoot a lot of threes ranking 105th at 40% of all possessions and they now have lost their point guard Zakai Zeigler to a torn ACL for the season. Bad news for Tennessee. Looking at how the Vols do on the road, it is pretty dismal. They shoot 46.1 effective FG% away while Auburn shoots 49.8% at home. Haslametrics ranks Tennessee 358th away from home and will struggle against a now bubble team like Auburn. I see the motivation here for Auburn to get this big win on Senior night and maybe they get some make up whistles do to the robbery in their last game.
Auburn -1.5 – 2.5 stars
Duke vs North Carolina -3 O/U 139
When these two teams face off for one last time, you know that it is March! UNC is playing their way into the NCAA tournament over the last few games with a big win vs Virginia and double digit win at Florida State. UNC did lose to the Dukies the last time they played in early February by six points, but I believe that the tides have finally turned. Neither of these two teams shoot well with Duke ranking 190th in effective FG% and the Tar Heels ranking 241st, but what I see is a Duke team that had it pretty easy in their last 5 wins playing four of those games at home in an easier ACC conference this year. Duke is a poor road team in General ranking 343rd away from home while UNC ranks 41st at home. One of the Blue Devil’s big problems is turning over the ball ranking 218th in the nation at 18.7% of possessions while North Carolina ranks 23rd at 15.3%. I expect the Tar Heels to be very aggressive here on Senior Night and punch their ticket into the NCAA Tournament.
UNC PK -155 – 1 star
Parlay: UNC -155 with Miami -255 +126 – 2 stars – Miami can win the ACC with this game, but so can Pitt. Miami is the much better team and playing at home. I think they take care of business and so does the market.