Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga -5 O/U 137
Revenge is a dish best served Cold. Gonzaga is having an off year certainly by their standards, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t win the West Coast Conference Title and revenging their overtime loss at Saint Mary’s. The Bulldogs have one big weakness, and that is playing defense only ranking 87th in adjusted efficiency, but in the past, their offense has always made up for it ranking 1st in adjusted efficiency with a fast pace of play, and 2nd in effective FG%. They are ok at rebounding the ball and could use a little work at the charity stripe ranking 245th. Saint Mary’s is the complete opposite. The Gaels rank 7th in defensive efficiency, play slow, and 80th in effective FG%. Saint Mary’s rebounds the ball pretty well, but they also can’t shoot free throws ranking 263rd in percentage, and they don’t seem to block many shots. The big thing here for me is strength of schedule. The Best team that Saint Mary’s has beaten was Gonzaga in overtime at home. They lost when stepping up to Houston, New Mexico, and three lower class teams. Gonzaga on the other hand has some good wins vs Michigan State, Kentucky, Xavier, and Alabama. with just one bad loss to Loyola Marymount whom also got the Gaels I might add. This is a big spot for the Zags as they want to prove that they are the best team in the West Coast Conference while getting even with their rival.
Gonzaga -4 – 2 stars (wait for a 4 but I like it up to 5)
* If this doesn’t get back down to 5 then it is a no play. Vandy -3.5 is solid instead.
Michigan State vs Iowa -5 O/U 148
Sometimes it feels like Tom Izzo and Fran McCaffery were made for each other. Watching their heads turn bright red with anger every game before exploding into a whistle blowing Zebra turns big 10 games into reality shows. In saying that, this game isn’t hard to figure out. The Hawkeyes had two bad games in a row vs Northwestern and Wisconsin, but that’s the big 10 for you. Iowa still plays a good game on offense ranking 9th in efficiency and a decent 52.5% from two. They also do not turn the ball over ranking 8th in turnover percentage. Iowa’s defense isn’t good ranking 151st in efficiency but that won’t matter when the other team tires. Michigan State on the other hand has been playing some good ball and some good defense, but they just can’t seem to win on the road losing four of their last five road games. Sparty shoots a dismal 48.3 effective FG% away from East Lancing, while Iowa shoots 57.1% effective FG% at home. Michigan State’s weakness is defending the two ranking 148th in near proximity defense and that is where Iowa has an advantage ranking 48th. Michigan State is a great three point shooting team but can they do it on the road? At 33% no they can not. The Big 10 is 114-84 ATS at home which is a nice 57.6%. Big 10 away teams are 44-80 which is 35.4% Wow. Take the Hawkeyes
Iowa -5 – 2.5 stars
