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Gonzaga vs Kentucky -5.5 O/U 169
I do not know if they could set a total high enough in this game. Gonzaga doesn’t play good defense even though it shows that they do ranking 35th on Kenpom. Their schedule just doesn’t add up. Kentucky hasn’t scored less than 90 points at home since December 2nd. They play no defense and seem to not care much about that side of the floor in their high flying games. Gonzaga needs this game like blood. Their best win is home vs number 65 on Kenpom San Francisco. They will miss the tournament unless they win their conference. They will try to play some defense, but they will realize that it will be a score for score type game. Both teams are in the top 31 in average possession length. Both teams have advantages from near proximity and shooting downtown. Kentucky is number one in overs this year at 17-5. I see the over happening in a high flying game.
Over 169 – 1.5 stars
Providence vs Butler -4 O/U 147
This is one of those perfect spot games that I will key into. Both teams are 15-8 for the season. Providence beat Butler back in December at home. The game went to overtime, yet they eked it out. One of the Fryer’s best players in Bryce Hopkins was playing at the time before injury. I see some advantages for Butler here. This team should be able to hit from downtown at home ranking 50th in three point percentage while Providence only ranks 122nd in defending it. Providence only has a near proximity advantage over Butler, but their problem is that they shot way too many threes. Providence ranks 60th in three point rate while only ranking 254th in three point percentage. They also only rank 259th in offensive rebounds. Not a good combination at all. Butler is a solid team coming off a good loss vs UCONN by single digits. They do not turn over the ball ranking 23rd in turnover rate while they can hit their end of game free throws ranking 8th in FT%. Providence is coming off of a huge OT win at Creighton. I think they let down here.
Butler -4 – 2.5 stars
