Purdue vs Iowa +7.5 O/U 154.5
Matchup Details
- Date: Tuesday, February 4, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, Iowa
- Broadcast: Peacock
Team Overview
- Purdue Boilermakers: Ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll and No. 8 in KenPom rankings. They are 17-5 overall and 9-2 in Big Ten play. Purdue has won nine of their last ten games and is known for their strong defense, allowing only 67.9 points per game.
- Iowa Hawkeyes: Ranked No. 66 in KenPom rankings. They are 13-8 overall and 4-6 in Big Ten play. Iowa has struggled recently, losing four of their last five games. Unfortunately, their leading scorer, best defender and rebounder, Owen Freeman, is out for the season due to a hand injury.
Key Players
- Purdue: Trey Kaufman-Renn (18.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG), Braden Smith (15.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 8.8 APG), Fletcher Loyer (14 PPG).
- Iowa: Payton Sandfort (16 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Josh Dix (13.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.0 APG).
Prediction
Given Purdue’s strong defense and Iowa’s recent struggles, it might seem like a low-scoring game. However, both teams have efficient offenses. Purdue is 28th in the nation in three-point percentage, while Iowa is 12th. This suggests that both teams can score from beyond the arc, potentially leading to a higher-scoring game. I also like how Iowa ranks 8th in home/away splits on Haslametrics. Iowa ranks 4th in effective FG% and 58.1%. Purdue ranks 20th at 56.5%.
Argument for the Over 14.5
- Efficient Offenses: Both teams have efficient offenses, with Purdue ranking 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa ranking 26th.
- Three-Point Shooting: Both teams shoot well from three-point range, which can quickly add up points.
- Purdue’s Defense: While Purdue has a strong defense, they have allowed an average of 67.9 points per game, which is much lower than Iowa’s average points per game of 85.7.
- Home Court Advantage: Iowa will have the home court advantage, and sometimes a high-scoring game can be expected in such scenarios. I also think that Iowa will dictate the pace in this game at home. I expect over 71 possessions per team in this game.
Verdict: I know that Owen Freeman is out, but the Hawkeyes will miss him more on defense than they will on offense. I can see Purdue getting plenty of points here, but the Hawkeyes will rally in a spot where they must win.
Over 154.5 – 2 stars
