We have a Thursday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a nice slate of games. Current CBB record on the season is a mundane 46-50-1, hoping to get on track here coming toward February.
My free play today takes us to Santa Clara, CA for some WCC KNAction featuring the Santa Clara Broncos (13-7 Overall, 5-2 WCC) hosting the Washington State Cougars (15-5 Overall, 5-2 WCC). The line checks in with Santa Clara as a slight favorite at -4.5 and the over/under sits at 158.5.
After a rough 3-5 start to the season, Santa Clara has taken ten of its last twelve games, and the Broncos come into this home match-up after a split on the road last week in WCC play losing to Loyola and beating Gonzaga in Pullman. Transfer Elijah Mahi has provided a spark this season for Santa Clara as the forward is averaging 11.9 points per game, the second-most on the team behind Adam Alpha Bal. Overall, Mahi is shooting 50.3 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from distance. Down low they feature 7-footer Christopher Tilly. Averaging 13.2 PPG, he is a threat from the post or behind the arc making him a very difficult big to guard. Bal however is the key to their offense with his ability to get to the rim.
Washington State comes into the game off a sweep last week as they squeaked by San Diego on the road and hammered Portland at home. The Cougars lost top scorer Cedric Coward for the season in November and have been without Isaiah Watts since Mid-December. It is possible Watts returns tonight. Nate Calmese has picked up the slack in their absence averaging 17.3 PPG on 48.6% shooting. He has been attacking the rim and causing a ton of defensive problems. 6’11” Forward Dane Erikstrup has been the other key piece on both ends of the floor. He can stretch the interior defense with his 3-point shooting ability.
I think the offenses will thrive tonight. Both these teams can create defensive match-up issues. Wazzou is 8th in the country in 2-Point Field Goal percentage and that is something Santa Clara will struggle with. Wazzou will constantly be attacking off the dribble and in the post. The Broncos allow 34 Post points per game and ranks 227th defending the 2 point shot. Santa Clara will run a lot of ball screen action and then try and get to the rim off of that or off the dribble. Wazzou is only in the 26th percentile in defense off the dribble and should have plenty of trouble stopping the Broncos
The books have accounted for this with the 158.5 total and I can’t say they are wrong. I think the difference in this game will come down to Washington State not taking as good of care of the rock as Santa Clara. The go fast and are turning the ball over on 20.8% of their possessions. They are also 344th in the country in Non-steal turnover percentage. It’s a big let down spot for Santa Clara following the win at Gonzaga, but Washington State has a big look ahead game next with WCC leading St. Mary’s coming to Pullman.
Gimme the Broncos at home who have the better defense, better free throw percentage and are better at taking care of the basketball.
Santa Clara -4.5, 1.5 Units
