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San Diego State vs Boise State -1.5 O/U 134
Senior night oh what a night! Well. That is if your team has seniors. The good thing for Boise State is that they have four seniors that play meaningful minutes! These teams played earlier in the year in San Diego with the Aztecs getting a very easy win over the Broncos. One key factor in this game was that senior and point guard Marcus Shaver was injured for Boise State and didn’t play in that game. Both of these teams are very defensive oriented ranking 11th and 12th on Kenpom, but San Diego State has the higher offensive efficiency. In saying that, Boise state has the better effective FG% at 51.8% compared to 51.2% for the Aztecs. The offensive rebounding edge goes to San Diego State, but I expect a better effort in that category here at home for the Broncos. One area where the Aztecs haven’t been themselves in on the road ranking 334th away from home on haslametrics. Boise State shoots 54.6% effective FG% at home while San Diego State shoots 49.1% on the road. The Aztecs are coming off of a last shot win in New Mexico and I do not think that they can duplicate that effort. Win or lose the Aztecs are in the big Dance. Boise needs this one. Take the Broncos.
Boise State -1.5 – 2 stars
Michigan State vs Nebraska +3.5 O/U 138
Imagine being up 13 points with 90 seconds left in a college basketball game? What are your odds of winning? 99.999%? Don’t ask that question to the Spartans after blowing that massive lead to the Iowa Hawkeyes last Saturday. Michigan State at 17-11 is a very solid basketball team and they could certainly do some damage in the tournament, but Nebraska is at 15-14 is trying to make a case here to join the party. From a matchup perspective three point shooting, the mid range shots, and the rebounding goes to Sparty, but the near proximity shots and layups go to Nebraska ranking 31st on near proximity offense to Sparty ranking 129th at near proximity defense. The Corn Huskers right now in Big 10 play in February are 5-1 with huge wins vs Maryland, Rutgers and Wisconsin. I also love how Nebraska ranks 29th at home on Haslametrics while Sparty ranks 304thon the road. Let’s eat some corn.
Nebraska +3.5 – 2 stars
