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Arkansas vs Kentucky -5.5 O/U 139.5
This game isn’t hard for me to figure out. Since Kentucky’s loss to South Carolina, they have regained form beating teams like Tennessee, Texas A&M, and most recently, Florida. In saying all of that, we can’t forget that Arkansas was one of the favorites to win the SEC, and they will be motivated here in this game. The Hogs will have some big advantages down low where they rank 3rd in near proximity points to Kentucky’s defense ranking a dismal 231st. Their size alone with Jalen Graham, and the Mitchell brothers at 6’9 a piece should cause some havoc for Oscar Tshiebwe, and Jacob Topin who is also 6’9 but nothing like his older brother from a basketball sense. Looking at the coaching, you have to give the nod to Eric Musselman over John Calipari. The Wildcats do not shoot good free throws ranking 252rd in the nation which is bad for a favorite when it comes to end of game fouling. Take the Hogs with the points.
Arkansas +5.5 – 2 stars
Toledo vs Akron -2 O/U 148
This will be one of your classic offense vs Defense matches. I have seen this many times, and when it’s the home team that has the defense, you have to look in that direction. Toledo is a solid MAC team that can shoot the ball well. They rank 17th in effective FG%, but their big issue is defending ranking a bad 287th in opponent effective FG% themselves. Akron ranks 197th in effective FG% and 92nd from their opponents which is more trustworthy if their opponents aren’t dialed in. The Zips haven’t lost a home game all year ranking 32nd in home court performance compared to Toledo ranking 264th away from their city. Why is this spread so close? Well, Toledo is a good at keeping their possessions ranking 7th in turnovers. Akron could lose the turnover battle some, but they should win the rebounding where Toledo only ranks 134th in offensive boards to 249th on defense. I expect the Zips to play well at home here and D up the Rockets enough to get the short cover.
Akron -2 – 2.5 stars
