College Basketball Weekend Free Plays – 1/17-1/19

Wisconsin vs Michigan State -9.5 O/U 131.5

Big 10 home teams are 33-7 straight up this year.  Ironically, Wisconsin has 2 of those road wins themselves.  We know that Sconnie is coming off of a huge win vs Maryland.   The Badgers this year are about a top 28 or 30 team with some upside.   The problem with them is that they are highly volatile.   When they are hitting they can keep up with anybody and we have seen that vs Maryland, at Ohio State and at Indiana.    When they are missing they are cold as ice losing to teams like New Mexico and Richmond.   Wisconsin also doesn’t get much for second chance opportunities when they miss only ranking 246th in offensive rebounds.   They have fixed their free throws ranking 17th in the nation this year compared to 332nd last year but they will need to draw more fouls to capitalize on this.   Michigan State is coming off of a terrible loss at purdue where they got straight up blown out and it was their biggest loss to this team in program history only putting up 42 points to their 71.   I can see a huge bounce back spot here for Sparty.   Michigan State is 7-2 ATS as a home team this year an Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS on the road.   The key thing for me is completely matchup related.   Wisconsin needs to hit some 3s each game to be competitive while Michigan State ranks 19th in the nation at defending the 3.  Michigan State also has some bigs down low that will cause major problems for Reuvers and Potter.  Michigan State ranks 9th in defending the FG down low.  Wisconsin plays a very slow pace as we know ranking 350th in the nation but that certainly has not helped them when they are down. Cassius Winston somehow just knows how to beat up Wisconsin and it shows every game.   Wisconsin has no perimeter game and that is what it takes to take down Michigan State.  The Badgers are in a let down spot and Sparty is in a get up spot.   The fact that this line came out much higher than expected, I have to look at the under here.  The under is 3-2 in Wisconsin away games and 4-3 in Michigan State true home games.  Not a huge sample size but Wisconsin plays very slow

Dayton vs St Louis +8 O/U 138

St Louis was a team that I backed in the AAC tournament last year and it really paid off.  Unfortunately they lost some production but actually rank higher than they did last year on kenpom.   Dayton is a beastly team who still hasn’t gotten top 10 respect in the market for some reason.   They really have no weaknesses other than their defense ranking 41st on kenpom and that is why they lost in overtime both ironically to Kansas and Colorado both on neutral courts.  What should be obvious about Dayton is that they will not play another team better than VCU who they just whipped at home against Dayton.  Their only true away games were against some of the worst in their Atlantic 10 conference and now they actually have a half way decent road game vs St Louis.   Now the Bilikens haven’t haven’t beaten anyone really either but at least they kept up Auburn only losing by 6 points and won the games that they were supposed to.   Their weakness is definitely at the line shooting 56.2% ranking dead last in the whole NCAA.   The good news is that they are not a favorite meaning that if Dayton has to hack them, you probably won your bet either way.  St Louis ranks a little above average in offense at 101.3 on Kenpom but pretty close to Dayton’s rating on defense at 92.9.   I have this game a 6.5 point spread with a total of 137. I think St Louis has a shot cause they can play some Defense.   They just need to get hot at home.  Should this spread get north of 10 I might be a player on St Louis but right now they are just a lean at 8.

Lean St Louis +8

Ohio State vs Penn State +1 O/U 137

I think we all remember when Penn State went into Ohio State and got beat them by 32 points at in an embarrassing fashion.   I am sure the Nittany Lions remember it well and Ohio State probably does as well.   I think that this may be a perfect spot for Penn State to enact some revenge on this team.   Ohio State shot 57% from the field and 53% from three that game and doing the same on the road has proven to be an impossible feat in big 10 play.  Since that game, Ohio State has went a dismal 1-4 in big 10 play and I still think that they are a little over rated at 10.   Penn State is a team that is solid everywhere except the three point line.   They tend to play pretty fast and have improved on defense.  The Buckeye’s weakness has been turnovers at a 20.4% rate which ranks 239th in the NCAA.  This won’t bode well for them on the road.  Penn State on the other hand has a weakness from 3 point land but they really only need to match the Buckeye’s at that category at home to win this game.  Ohio State only shoots 29% from three point land on the road.  I gotta go Penn State with the home big 10 trend here anything under -2.

Auburn vs Florida  +1 O/U 139

I really wanted to play Florida here but now that Auburn is coming off an embarrassing loss to Alabama, it doesn’t bode quite as well.   Auburn hasn’t faced a top 40 team all year and now they get to go to a Florida team that ranks 34 on Kenpom who hasn’t lost at home since November 10th to Florida State.   Now Florida is a slow playing team who values defense and patience by waiting for an open shot.  Statistically there a a very average Power 5 team with no big wins themselves and could use this one on their resume.

Auburn is great at FG percentage and rebounding the ball.   Their weakness is that they shoot too may 3 point shots at 45% of all field goal attempts and if they get cold, it could really hurt them.  They also are not great at shooting free throws ranking 312th at 65.1%.  I think that Florida has a little bit more to lose here and will take them small.  I have them winning 70-68

Purdue vs Maryland -3 O/U 122

Big 10 home team alert!  Seeing a trend here?   Purdue has really stepped it up the past few games taking Michigan to overtime and beating Michigan State at home and you can thank Travion Williams for his outstanding play.  In Saying that, Purdue is still a very poor team in their guard play and could easily get cold again like that 38 points they put up at Illinois.   The Boilermaker’s only rank 228th in effective FG%, are very average from 3 point land and rank 304th in free throws.  Maryland on the other hand is desperate after 2 heartbreaking road losses at Iowa and Wisconsin and they will be looking for a big win.  The Terps rank 7th in experience on kenpom and have been in a bounce back situation multiple times under coach Turgeon.   Maryland’s depth isn’t great but Purdue plays at a very slow pace and fatigue shouldn’t be a huge issue.  I think the Guard play of Anthony Cowan shines here and I am going to take the home team up to 4 points.

Louisville vs Duke -8 O/U 136

Now this game is the best one of the weekend for me.   This will tell us who will win the ACC regular season in my opinion.  How pissed off is Duke right now after losing at Clemson this week?   I would say FUMING.  Louisville is now coming off of an overtime win in Pittsburgh and you wonder how much steam they have left to play defense on their 3rd road game in a row.   Louisville is top 18 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while Duke is top 5 in both.  Duke plays a faster pace game at 71.5 possessions per game and Louisville ranks 287th at 66 possessions.   Both of these teams should be extremely motivated here and if it wasn’t for Duke’s bad loss, I might have a dog play here but instead I think I want to look at the total.  The ACC is pretty bad this year with Virginia and North Carolina most likely not making the tournament and I think that Duke and Louisville.  Because this conference is so weak, I think that the defensive stats are a little bit skewed and both teams should be able to put up points.   Florida State put up 78 on Louisville and Michigan State and Clemson was able to put up over 78 points a piece.   I don’t like the fact that Wendell Moore is out for Duke for the upcoming future and don’t like Louisville’s 3rd road game in a row so I will not play the side but I will pound the over at 136 and I like it all the way to 139.

Clemson vs NC State -6.5 O/U 139

Clemson averages 43% from the field and shot a great 57% vs Duke at home just a few days ago.  They are in their biggest let down spot of the year after beating UNC and Duke these last two games.   NC State is in a revenge spot against them and their last game went to 151 points.   NC State can’t play defense but they can play fast and score.  I like this game NC State -6.5 and the over 139.