The Belk Bowl, Charlotte NC, South Carolina vs Virginia +5 O/U 53.5
These 2 teams are very solid teams. South Carolina was pretty disappointing coming into the season with higher hopes of being a better team in the SEC East and Virginia always flies under the radar beating teams like Duke, Miami and Ohio but they haven’t played anyone who is currently ranked. I don’t see a coaching advantage here because I like both coaches Bronco Mendenhall and Will Muschamp for what they are. South Carolina will be without their STUD receiver Deebo Samuel due to the NFL draft and Virginia may not have anyone that will be going to the NFL draft. Having said that I do believe that South Carolina plays in a harder conference and has some more impressive numbers. The Gamecocks have played 6 ranked teams, beat Missouri and should have beaten Texas A&M. I also like how they were able to put 35 points on the Clemson scoreboard. The Cavaliers are a run first team with a very average passing game. They key stat for me here is South Carolina’s strong 8.2 passing yards per attempt and having a 1/2 yard per play advantage of offense over Virginia.
I also like how Jake Bentley should be motivated here to A) Go to the Pros or B) Hold off 4 star recruit Ryan Hilinski from taking his job. Both teams average about the same on the ground at 4.6 yards per rush and both give up about 4.5. This game will go like the NC State vs Virginia game earlier in the year. If the weather holds up I like the Gamecocks here to cover!
South Carolina – 5
The Arizona Bowl, Tucson Arizona – Arkansas State vs Nevada +1.5 O/U 57.5
Can we forget that Nevada lost to UNLV their final game of the season? Well if you like Nevada then you should forget that because it really was a meaningless game for them anyways. We have 2 middle of the pack group of 5 schools playing for pride. Arkansas State finished better but Nevada has the better defense only allowing 5.3 yards per play to 5.7. Both teams are 6.2 yards per play and play but Nevada played a tougher schedule beating teams like Air Force and San Diego State while Arkansas State hasn’t beaten anybody. This is also more of a home game atmosphere for the Wolfpack being that Nevada is west coast. Blake Anderson is also only 1-3 ATS in bowl games so I am going to have to play Nevada on the Money Line and lean over 57.5. Play this one early because lots of local money in Vegas will drive this line up. If you like the Red Wolves then wait till the end.
Nevada ML and lean over 57.5
The Peach Bowl, Atlanta Georgia – Michigan vs Florida +6.5 O/U 51
Michigan will be without DT Rashan Gary and LB Devin Bush, Karon Higdon but I would think their second string is pretty darn good by now. Both teams are equal on yards per play on offense at 6.2 but Michigan is much better on Defense yards per play allowing 4.3 to Florida’s 5.1. Michigan was embarrassed the last game that they played as well as last year’s bowl game and that could motivate this team. Felipe Franks played some good football this year at 23-5 TD to interception ratio completing 58% of his passes. Shea Patterson for the Wolverines completed 64% of his passes at a 21-5 TD to interception ratio. Most Power ratings has Michigan by 8.5 points. Michigan was the only big 10 team to lose last year and I think they need to prove they can get it done.
Michigan -6 to -6.5
The Cotton Bowl, Arlington Texas – Clemson vs Notre Dame +13 O/U 55.
I look at Notre Dame as the ACC team that didn’t have to play Clemson or NC State for that fact. Both teams had easy schedules but that doesn’t not make Clemson a top 2 team. Clemson leads the League in second half points. From a pure numbers and algorithm standpoint, I have Clemson winning 28-22 but that doesn’t factor in the many times the Tigers could have run up the score. From a power ratings I have Clemson by 12. Clemson is weaker against the pass as we saw against Texas A&M, Syracuse and NC State put up 35 points. Notre Dame is a good passing team with Ian Book at the helm. I think Notre Dame will scheme in the first half well enough to cover and I think Clemson pulls away in the second half of the game.
Notre Dame first half +7 and Clemson second half -?
The Orange Bowl, Miami Florida – Alabama vs Oklahoma +14 O/U 77.
Oklahoma’s defense Ranks 95th in points allowed at 32.5 and 102nd in yards per play at 6.0. Alabama is top 7 in both categories allowing only 14.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. Oklahoma’s offense ranks first in points per game at 49.5 and yards per play at 8.7, but Alabama ranks second in both of those areas 48 points per game and 7.9 yards per play in a much tougher division but easier non conference schedule. A big factor in this game is how tight will this game be called by the officials. Oh, by the way, I just saw that Oklahoma star WR Marquise Brown will be attempting to play in this game so there’s that but that doesn’t mean he still won’t be hobbled and maybe ineffective. I could see this game being close or I can see Alabama blowing them out. I think Saben will look to the Oklahoma vs Army game here and play keep away.
Under 77 points and especially if Bama is leading at the half by double digits.
If game is single digits at half time then take the second half over.
