Dec. 30
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan +3.5 O/U 53
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Dallas
12:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This spread is flat out wrong. WROOOOOOOOOONG. I am sick of this fade the Mac shenanigans. How has that worked out for ya so far? The Mac is 3-1 ATS so far in bowl games. Western Michigan is a solid team. They have lots of Juniors and Seniors and play great offense and decent defense. This team is a net .6 yards per play and have beaten the best teams in their conference including Ohio, Miami OH, Central Michigan and Ball State. They should have been in the title game if it wasn’t for that last game hiccup vs NIU. Western Kentucky has a defense and allows only 20 points per game but their offense is almost as bad as San Diego State’s and they were only able to put up a net .3 yards per play vs a very easy schedule. This game is really a no-brainer play for me. If you don’t believe me check Sagarin and Team Rankings.
Western Michigan +3.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play and .5 star Sprinkle
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State vs. Louisville +4 O/U 63
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, Tennessee
4 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This is more of a home game for Louisville with only a 2 hour drive away. This team was actually half way decent this year beating teams like Wake Forest, Virginia and Syracuse. Their huge issue was their defense allowing 6.4 yards per play making it only a net positive .25 for the year. Mississippi State was also quite average beating up on the easy teams and losing bad against the hard teams. They were a net negative .1 yards per play because of that but definitely had a harder schedule than Louisville in the SEC West. I like Louisville’s home field advantage here but what i don’t like his how they finished the season and they way that they lost to Kentucky. Mississippi State beat Kentucky this year and they both have similar styles winning with defense and pounding the ball. Louisville should not be able to stop the run here at all but I can’t trust Mississippi State laying 4.
Lean Mississippi State -4 and lean under 63
Redbox Bowl
California vs. Illinois +6.5 O/U 43
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, California
4 p.m., FOX
This should be called the negative yards per play bowl. Clearly a home game for Cal here. There are 2 other key things here. First, Chase Garbers is back for Cal after about 6 weeks off for injury and they won their last 2 games with him vs Stanford and UCLA and Illinois finished out the season badly losing to Northwestern at home. Even after all of that, I think this spread is a tad bit too high. Illinois had some huge wins this year against Wisconsin and at Michigan State and they have some talent on that team. Everyone is looking at Illinois bad yards per play at a net -.7 but what people don’t see is that it was much worse half way through the season and had only improved. Illinois also had a hard schedule playing 4 ranked teams. Being that Illinois hasn’t been to a bowl game in a coon’s age, I think that they may have some fans show up for this game. This is too many points for a Cal team vs any decent team. Low total as well.
Illinois +6.5 2 star premium shared and sprinkle and lean under 43
Capital One Orange Bowl
Florida vs. Virginia +14.5 O/U 54.5
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
8 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I do not remember too many spreads this large in the Orange bowl. I am going to give Florida a 1 point home field advantage here but this only brings by my line to -10.5. Why am I not betting Virginia here? Its fear. Utter Fear of the way Virginia got smoked vs Clemson and the way Florida smoked Michigan in their bowl game last year. Virginia has a piss poor .1 net yards per play on the season while Florida has a 1.6 and played a harder schedule. Virginia might be the second most fraudulent 9-3 team close to San Diego State. I like coach Bronco Mendenhall and all he has done but he isn’t no Dan Mullen and Florida will be fired up and ready to go this game with extra prep time to stop Bryce Perkins.
Lean Florida -14.5
Dec. 31
Belk Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky +2.5 O/U 46.5
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Noon, ESPN/ESPN App |
This one is more of a home game for Va Tech with a 2.5 hour drive. Va Tech was the most improved team this year this bowl season who started out 2-2 with losses to Boston College and Duke only to rip through teams like North Carolina, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh. They are a positive .4 yards per play with a balanced offense and solid defense allowing 24 points per game. Kentucky on the other side is very one dimensional. They can run the ball very well averaging 6.4 yards per rush. Kentucky has only passed for 1400 yards this year and if they get down in a game they have trouble playing catchup. One thing Kentucky does have is a yards per play advantage at 1 yard per play making it a net .6. My Power ratings have Virginia Tech by 3 on a neutral field. I kinda like Virginia Tech here in this spot but I do not trust them due to their easy schedule. I think the total may be a better look for this game. Kentucky ranks 119th in pace of play while Virginia Tech ranks an average 60th. Techs D holds opponents to 24 points per game and Kentucky’s D holds opponents to 18. I’ll take a shot at the under but will wait for a little and see what the weather looks like.
Under 46.5 – 1 star
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Florida State vs. Arizona State -4.5 O/U 54.5
Sun Bowl Stadium
El Paso, Texas
2 p.m., CBS
You play to win the game! I am confident that ASU players are thinking that coming into this game. What I am not confident about is Florida State after having to buy out another coach. I wonder how it must feel to be a player there. Yards per play are pretty equal with these teams and I have ASU about a 1.25 advantage in the power ratings. One thing that I do like for next year’s Seminols team is who Florida State hired for their new coach in Mike Norvell. This guy was a stud over at Memphis and if those teams had a defense, it may have been them getting the hype over UCF. Arizona State had a strong motivated finish to the season beating teams like Oregon and rival Arizona while Florida State did well under interim coach Haggins but lost bad their final game vs Florida. This seems to be a no brainer ASU bet due to this situation right? Maybe wrong. This happened before with Haggins at Florida State and the team blew out Louisiana Monroe to make a bowl game and then blew out Southern Miss in that bowl game. This could be another big effort. Too much variance for me.
Smallest lean to ASU -4.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy vs. Kansas State +2.5 O/U 52
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, Tennessee
3:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I hope that Chris Klieman watched the Army Navy game because there was just one person besides the trenches who knew how to play football and that person was Navy QB Malcomb Perry. You have to appreciate what first year wildcat coach Klieman did for this program. beating playoff team Oklahoma and making it to a bowl game. The formula to stop Navy is to contain Malcomb Perry and force him to throw the ball. Being at 54% on the year should tell you something. It is a good thing that Kansas State has a few football players which is more than I can say for Army’s defense. The bad news for Kansas State is that they stink against the run allowing 5 yards per rush and Navy is an option team that does throw the ball for trickery and when it actually completes it turns into a big play. Navy has a solid defense but when they stepped up in class against Notre Dame and Memphis they really allowed a lot of points and a lot of yards. Because of this I look to the over. Kansas State’s offense in their strength averaging 31 points per game to Navy’s 38. Kansas State’s defense also allows 6.1 yards per play. I really don’t think that these team will be able to stop each other here and even tho Navy is an option team, i think this total might be a bit low.
Lean over 52
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Wyoming vs. Georgia State +7 O/U 49
Arizona Stadium
Tucson, Arizona
4:30, CBS Sports Network |
Now this is an interesting game due to a couple of things. First you have a smash mouth Wyoming team with a good defense playing an air it out, high paced Georgia State team. The Panthers play fast and the pokes play slow. No need to get into yards per play here within these 2 different styles and different conferences but what I do know is that Georgia State plays in a dome and this game will be outdoors in Tucson Arizona during the colder season. The real key here is that QB and second leading rusher for Georgia State Dan Ellington is playing on a torn ACL and with Wyoming’s swarming defense, I think that could spell some serious trouble for Georgia State. He has been playing on it for 4 games, and since then, the Panthers are 1-3 with their only win vs a bad South Alabama team. I also think it is a very dumb decision to play on a knee like that. Georgia State is pretty bad against the run allowing 5.3 yards per carry. Wyoming averages 4.7. My power ratings have this at -7 on a neutral field but the Injury to Ellington and the fact that this is played on the west coast makes me half to play Wyoming
Wyoming -7 – 2.5 star premium shared
Valero Alamo Bowl
Utah vs. Texas
Alamodome
San Antonio
7:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This is much more of a home game for Texas here. Will Utah have any motivation after blowing their chances at the playoff? Leaning no here but that is never guaranteed. We saw Texas beat Georgia last year and Utah is in that similar situation. What I think it can be assumed is that you are going to see Sam Ellinger play another amazing bowl game like he did vs Georgia last year. That is… If he has any players to throw the ball too. Both of his top WRs are questionable this game and there also may be some players sitting out for the draft. There are cluster injuries on defense for the longhorns and I am not sure that they can stop anybody if many of these guys have to miss this game. If you look at the Longhorns on a yards per play basis, they were dead even. Utah was a positive 2.3. Texas had the harder schedule for sure but it is hard to quantify the differences between the big 12 and the Pac 12. I feel both conferences are similar. have Utah as an 8.25 favorite here in my power ratings but I can’t make any play until we find out who is playing for Texas.
Slightest lean to Utah
Jan. 1, 2020
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Alabama -7 O/U 58.5
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida
1 p.m., ABC/ESPN App |
Alabama may not be motivated here but Michigan should be very motivated due to their bowl performance from last year. Alabama is in Georgia’s position from last year missing the playoffs and it is difficult to see if they will get up for this game. Believe it or not, Michigan has no bowl sit outs this year. Alabama will be without a few players. Outside linebacker Terrell Lewis and cornerback Trevon Diggs have both decided to not play in the game; both of these players were absent from practice on Monday. In addition, freshman defensive tackle DJ Dale is ‘doubtful’ for the game due to the knee injury he sustained late in the regular season; Saban says Dale has not been responded well to treatment and medications. What we do know is that some of the Bamma studs Najee Harris, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs and QB Mack Jones are all going to play this game and we should see some scoring here. Even though there are some people missing here, Bama is still 4th in my power ratings and Michigan is 10th making a 7 point spread. Take away 1.5 points for Bama’s injuries and players sitting out and I have the game -5.5. I am nervous to bet a Jim Harbaugh team so I am going to wait and see if a 7.5 pops for now. Alabama also has a net 3 yards per play over Harbaugh’s 1.4 although Michigan certainly had the much harder schedule this year. I think the better play may be the over here. We have seen Bama score 40-50 points against some of the best defenses in football. You have to think that Michigan will put up some points as well against a battered Bama defense.
Weather permitting – Over 58 – 2 star premium shared
Outback Bowl
Minnesota vs. Auburn -7 O/U 53 Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
1 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
Auburn Defensive tackle Nick Coe and Minnesota Linebacker Kamal Martin will sit out this game for the NFL Draft. Both teams should be motivated to win this game. Maybe even a little more motivation for the Gophers for having such a great season and getting to play such a great team. According to my power ratings, this spread should be around 4.5 but some of the other ones that I trust have it larger than 7. Both of these teams are at 1.2 net yards per play Auburn had the much tougher schedule for sure here playing Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Oregon while Minnesota avoided Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State this year. I want to recommend betting Minnesota at this number but I can’t forget what Auburn did to poor Purdue last year when they beat them 5000 to 0 or something like that and that and the Gophers schedule makes me lean to Auburn. I think Minnesota will put up some points against this team but I also think Minnesota should give up at least 32 to points here against a running QB like Bo Nix.
Lean Auburn and lean over 53.5
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
Oregon vs. Wisconsin -3 O/U 51
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California
5 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
Well I must stay that this looks like the 3rd best game in all of college football bowl games behind Ohio State/Clemson and the National Championship. These 2 teams are very good and both deserve to be in the top 10 in my opinion. Wisconsin blew their last game against a strong Ohio State team while Oregon took care of business in winning the Pac 12. Oregon has a slight yards per play edge at .1 net over Wisconsin but the Badgers had a harder schedule playing 5 top 25 teams over Oregon’s 3. Both of these teams are top 12 in sacks per game. Oregon has the passing edge here for sure but Wisconsin has the running edge. My power ratings has the game Wisconsin by 2.25 points so I am not far off of the spread here. I know I sound like a broken record here when I say that Wisconsin needs a great game from Jack Coan to win this one but the truth is that anyone playing a top 15 team needs good QB play in order to win. Just running the ball isn’t good enough like it used to be years ago. This game may be won by the team who applies the most pressure on defense to the quarterback. Wisconsin can not let Justin Herbert pick them apart like he did against Utah. Oregon is another team who likes to get the ball to their players in space so Wisconsin needs to be ready. Being that I am so close to the spread here I would like to take a look at the first half here. Oregon is a very good team and they have a solid defense but they haven’t seen a team quite like Wisconsin with their huge offensive line and counter rushing plays. They can do some misdirection rushing plays and Jet sweeps that may catch Oregon off guard. Deception will be key. Coan needs to draw in Safety Brady breeze with some pump fakes in order to get over the top. They seem to play action well to their tight end Ferguson and Coan has shown some ability to hit Quintez Cephus in the quick slants. Wisconsin seems to start out great every single game as we saw both games vs Ohio State as well as Michigan, Michigan State and most of the rest. I think Wisconsin has a chance to Jump Oregon here and I may look to the first half. I also think this total is a bit low for a Rose Bowl so I may have to look to the over weather permitting.
Wisconsin 1st half -2 – 2 star premium shared and lean over 51
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Georgia vs. Baylor +6 O/U 41
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans
8:45 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This should be called the salt bowl because both of these teams should be a bit salty for blowing their playoff chances last game. Home game for Georgia but no real reward for the season. They just played here and lost bad to LSU. Players may sit out here. We do know that their offensive Tackle Andrew Thomas will sit this one for the draft. Georgia has also been depleted in their receiving department losing Lawrence Cager and Dominick Blaylock. Georgia is about a net 1.9 yards per play this season with a hard schedule and Baylor had a very easy schedule with their only losses to Oklahoma. The Bears had a 1.6 net yards per play. I have Georgia a 9.5 on a neutral field but adjusting for motivation and their injuries I have to down grade this spread to 6.5. We also do not know who will be quarterbacking for Baylor being that Charlie Brewer had a concussion in the Big 12 championship and we do not know how serious it is. I do think he plays but will Baylor be motivated here after having their dreams crushed as well?
No Play but a very slight lean to Georgia
