Jan. 2
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Boston College vs. Cincinnati -7 O/U 55
Legion Field
Birmingham, Alabama
3 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
This spread opened up rather small for most power ratings at -4.5 and that is when I made a large play on the Bearcats. Boston College actually had a decent finish to their season beating Pittsburgh but that game was to become bowl eligible. This team hasn’t beaten anybody with a pulse and their best player AJ Dillon will be sitting out. The Eagles are 6-6 with a net yards per play at -.5. Cincinnati on the other hand does not have a good offense but they have a very solid defense and they have a .3 net yards per play. Cinci has done great by upsetting some big names such as Central Florida and UCLA. As long as they are not playing Memphis or Ohio state they looked good. I think that even at -7 this spread is a bit low but I wouldn’t take it at -7.5.
Cincinnati -7 – 1 star premium shared
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Indiana vs. Tennessee -1.5 O/U 52.5
TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville, Florida
7 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
I don’t see many power ratings with Tennessee better than Indiana but they certainly finished their season better. Indiana lost 2 of their last 3 games and Tennessee went on a 5-0 run. The difference here is that Indiana had to play Penn State and Michigan and Tennessee essentially played the worst in the whole SEC. Both of these teams are about equal in yards per play and on defense. Motivation should be about a tie here. I think I am going to go with the Big 10 here getting a little points. My power ratings have this game at Indiana -2.5. I also like how coach Tom Allen knows how to motivate this team and how hard they have played all year long.
Indiana +1.5 – 2 star premium shared
Jan. 3
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio vs. Nevada +8 O/U 58.5
Albertsons Stadium
Boise, Idaho
3:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
More of a home game for Nevada but not a good reward for either team.Well I don’t know how excited these kids are to go to Boise Idaho for their bowl game but what I do know is that it is going to suck. Nevada is a net negative 1.2 yards per play while Ohio is a positive .8. That is a 2 yard per play difference here. Normally when I see this I jump at any spread below 10 points but the issue that I have is how Motivated will Ohio be for this game and the fact that Nevada actually beat some decent teams such as Missouri and San Diego State. I think that when looking at both of these teams, their defenses are pretty bad and they should be some points being scored here. Ohio averages 6.7 yards per play and 35 points per game. If Motivated, they should be able to get over 40 here. The question is will Nevada score over their average of 21.
Lean Ohio -8 and over 58.5
Jan. 4
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane -7 O/U 56.5
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, Texas
11:30 a.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
Southern Miss is just another one of those bowl teams that isn’t very good at all. They beat all of the easy teams and lost to the harder teams by a margin. Tulane ended their season horribly by losing 5 out of 6 games but at least those teams were great and all bowl teams. Tulane has a .2 net yard per play advantage and you wouldn’t think that is much but their schedule ranked 60th while Southern Miss’s schedule ranks 111th. My power ratings have this more of a 10 point spread. I like Tulane at the 7 for a little.
Tulane -7 – 1 star premium shared
Jan. 6
LendingTree Bowl
Louisiana vs. Miami (Ohio) +14 O/U 55.5
Ladd-Peebles Stadium
Mobile, Alabama
7:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App |
Well this is a pretty big spread for a group of 5 game especially when the dog has won theri conference championship game. Louisiana has a fantastic rushing offense averaging 6.4 yards per rush. They also have a pretty good defense allowing only 20 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. Miami has won their conference based on defense but they have a net negative yards per play at -.2 while Lousiana has a monster 2.5 net yards per play. I think that Miami has had the harder schedule here and I am not exactly rushing to the window due to this. The Mac is doing well in bowl games. Louisiana should have a slight home field advantage here being only a 3.5 hour drive but My power ratings have this at 12 so there is no play for me but a slight lean to Louisiana
Lean Louisiana Laffayette -14
