Cancelled Dec. 31 – Gator Bowl or Tax Slayer, Jacksonville, Fla.: Texas A&M vs. Wake Forest, ESPN, 11 a.m.
Dec. 31 – Sun Bowl Tony the Tiger, El Paso, Tex.: Miami (Fla.) vs. Washington State -7 O/U 57.5, CBS, 12:30 p.m.
Motivation: Central Michigan – Medium High – They were screwed a bit but will want to beat the Pac 12. Washington State – Medium Low – Not exactly like beating Miami here but at least they get to play.
Injuries/Hold outs: None
SOS: Central Michigan’s is 101st and Washington State’s is 44th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Jim McElwain, Central Michigan, 2-2 and Washington State’s Jake Dickert N/A
Metrics: If you take out the SOS, these teams are pretty equal. Both about 50th in offensive success rate and both are about .3 net yards per play. Central Michigan is 39th in EPA margin while Washington State is 78th but schedule makes all the difference. Wash State should be able to find some success passing the ball as Central Michigan ranks 96th in opponent Pass EPA.
Decision: I like the over here. Central Michigan is a good defense but only from the perspective of playing the Mac. Washington State should be able to find the end zone and they scored over 30 points 5 of their last 7 games. Central Michigan ranks 28th in Tempo and they average 33 points per game themselves.
Over 57.5 – 2 stars
Dec. 31 – Cotton Bowl, Arlington, Texas: Alabama vs. Cincinnati +13.5 O/U 58 , ESPN, 3:30 p.m.
Motivation: Alabama – High – Playoffs and Cincinnati – High – Playoffs.
Injuries/Hold outs: Alabama wide receiver John Metchie, who led the team with 96 receptions, will not suit up in the College Football Playoff semifinal due to an ACL injury suffered in the SEC Championship Game.
SOS: 82nd for Cincinnati and 7th for Alabama.
Coach Bowl ATS: Luke Fickell, Cincinnati, 2-2, and Nick Saban, Alabama, 10-7
Metrics: Cincinnati has a .6 net yards per play advantage over Alabama but the SOS is a big difference. Alabama has the 5 star athletes. Cinci is number 3 in EPA Margin while Alabama is number 4. Cincinnati averages 5.4 yards per rush but Alabama only allows 2.5 yards per rush in a much harder conference. Cincinnati might be able to throw the ball a little bit tho. They use a lot of deception and average 8.8 yards per attempt while Alabama gives up 7 and ranks 41st in opponent pass EPA. So why the Big spread? Well Bryce young is an absolute beast and he signal handidly beat Georgia with great decision making, his fast speed and powerful arm. My power ratings have Alabama -8 here.
Decision: We are going to take the Bearcats plus the points for 3 reasons here. 1st is that Alabamas top WR John Mechie is out for the season from the Georgia game and only Jameson Williams has over 330 receiving yards on the whole team. Number 2, Alabama sometimes plays down to their competition as we have seen with Florida, A&M, LSU and Auburn. Finally, number 3, this very same Cincinnati team already faced an elite group of talent last year against Georgia in their bowl game and they should have won it minus some dumb coaching mistakes by Luke Fickel. I think that if Cinci is up at half, you will have some buy back/middle options as well.
Cincinnati +14 – 3 stars and sprinkle
Canceled – Dec. 31 – Arizona Bowl, Tucson, Ariz.: Boise State vs. Central Michigan, 4:30 p.m.
- Boise State – ML – Playing a MAC team in Tucson doesn’t sound so appealing.
- Central Michigan – MH – Playing Boise State isn’t bad at all.
Dec. 31 – Orange Bowl, Miami Gardens, Fla.: Michigan vs. Georgia -7.5 O/U 45.5, ESPN, 7:30 p.m.
Motivation: Michigan – High – Playoffs Georgia – High – Playoffs
Injuries/Hold outs: None
SOS: Michigan 31st and Georgia 35th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Jim Harbaugh, Michigan, 3-4 and Kirby Smart, Georgia, 5-2.
Metrics: Michigan is number 6 in EPA margin and Georgia is number 1. My power ratings have Georgia -5.25. Believe it or not, Georgia and Michigan only rank 42nd and 61st in adjusted line yards on defense. Neither team has a great stuff rate with Georgia at 43rd and Michigan at a terrible 109th. In saying that, Michigan is the better rushing team ranking 16th in Rush EPA while Georgia ranks 73rd. Georgia does have a massive 1.2 net yard per play advantage over Michigan but I also think that they got to play a lot of cake teams while Michigan’s opponents were pretty stout for the most part.
Decision: Gotta go with Michigan here. I know that Georgia has been big and bad all year but Stetson Bennet is a much better game manager than a come back quarterback. If Georgia is down this game, I could see him struggling to bet back into the game. If Georgia is winning my Margin is where Kirby Smart dials up some plays to throw Michigan off balance where they may expecting run. This is why Bennet ranks number 4 in pass EPA in the first place at only 64% completion percentage. I think live betting the team that is winning in the middle of the second quarter might be the best bet.
Michigan +8 – 2 star and sprinkle and live bet the team that is winning in the middle of the second quarter.
Jan. 1 – Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fla.: Arkansas vs. Penn State +1.5 O/U 48.5, ESPN2, noon
Motivation: Arkansas – High – The team did great this year and will want to beat Big 10. Penn State – Medium – I think this team had higher asperations and the lost some kids to prep for the draft.
Injury/Hold outs: Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry, who left to take over as head coach at Virginia Tech. Penn State’s two leading tacklers, linebackers Brandon Smith and Ellis Brooks opt out. Safety Jaquan Brisker has opted out as well. WR Jahan Dotson and defensive end Arnold Ebiketie opt out as well. Arkansas top WR Treylon Burks, but he has declared for the NFL Draft. The Razorbacks also lost defensive end Tre Williams, who has declared for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Arkansas 9th and Penn State 12th
Coach Bowl ATS: James Franklin, Penn State, 6-3, and Arkansas N/A
Metrics: Arkansas has about a .35 net yard per play advantage over Penn state. Arkansas is 25th in EPA Margin while Penn State is 60th. We also have to remember that Sean Clifford wasn’t able to participate in some of these games. Penn State has just a medium offense and a good Defense. Arkansas has a good offense and a medium defense. My power ratings have Penn State -2.5.
Decision: The SEC has been pretty bad so far in bowl games. Both teams are missing their share of players. I will lean Penn State and hope for a better number. I also lean under.
Jan. 1 – Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State +2 O/U 45, ESPN, 1 p.m.
Motivation: Notre Dame – Medium – Continuity with their defensive coordinator becoming coach yet was still kinda weird. Oklahoma State – Medium Low – They thought they might get into the playoffs.
Injuries/Hold outs: Newly-appointed head coach Marcus Freeman will take over the Irish. Safety Isaiah Hamilton and running back Kyren Williams will skip the Fiesta Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Notre Dame is 41st and Oklahoma State is 13th. These are the 2 most incomparable schedules in all the bowl matchups in my opinion.
Coach Bowl ATS: Notre Dame, Marcus Freeman N/A and Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State, 9-6.
Metrics: Both teams are equal at about 1 net yard per play. Notre Dame lost their coach but some say he was an A-hole anyways. Notre Dame is 10th in EPA margin while Oklahoma State is 16th. The Irish have the better offense and the Pokes have the better defense. My power ratings have Notre Dame -2.25 so I am right on the number. My concern for the Irish is that their offensive line ranks 108th in sack rate while Oklahoma State’s defensive line ranks 4th.
Decision: Lean the Pokes due to their pass rush.
Jan. 1 – Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Fla: Iowa vs. Kentucky -3 O/U 44, ABC, 1 p.m.
Motivation: Iowa – Medium High – losing the Big 10 championship is standard for this team but so is kicking ass in bowl games. Kentucky – Medium High – I think they will try and beat a team with no offense here.
Injuries/Hold outs: Hawkeyes running back Tyler Goodson has declared for the draft and will skip the Citrus Bowl. Kentucky’s number 2 WR Josh Ali was involved in a car accident and won’t be able to play.
SOS: Iowa 22nd and Kentucky 68th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Kirk Ferentz, Iowa, 10-5 and Mark Stoops, Kentucky, 3-2
Metrics: Kentucky has a massive 1.3 net yards per play over Iowa but Iowa has had the much harder schedule. Iowa has a terrible offense ranking 120th in EPA while Kentucky ranks 29th but Kentucky’s defense ranks 46th and Iowa ranks 12th. Iowa bad offense, great defense and Kentucky good offense and ok defense. Neither defense really gets to the quarterback which might be an issue.
Decision: You can’t ignore Kirk Ferentz’s ATS bowl success. I also think SEC is overrated some. I’ll play Iowa at 3 but will hope for a 3.5
Iowa +3 – 2 stars
Jan. 1 – Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.: Ohio State vs. Utah +4 O/U 64, ESPN, 5 p.m.
Motivation: Ohio State – Medium – Ryan Day will get his team up but they had playoff aspirations even with some of the players holding out. Utah – Medium High – They won the Pac 12 and this would be the icing on the cake.
Injuries/Hold outs: Ohio State’s Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Nicholas Petit-Frere, and Haskell Garrett will not play in the Rose Bowl against Utah. Quite Possibly more to come.
SOS: Ohio State is 21st and Utah is 34th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Ryan Day, Ohio State, 1-2 and Kyle Whittingham, Utah, 9-5.
Metrics: Ohio State has a big 1.1 net yard per play advantage over Utah. Ohio State is number 2 in EPA margin and Utah is number 7. Ohio State’s strength has been passing the ball at 9.8 yards per attempt while Utah is 64thi in opponent pass EPA. Utah is number 1 in rush EPA while Ohio State ranks 26th in opponent rush EPA. My power ratings have Ohio State -8 but Jeff Sagarin’s recency power rating just has Ohio State at 91 and Utah at 90.
Decision: Ohio State losing their top 2 wide receivers and best offensive tackle is massive. Cameron Rising has been a fantastic QB for Utah and he has been very dangerous running the ball as well. Utah should be able to run against Ohio State but I wouldn’t doubt it if Ohio State can rush the ball some themselves being that Utah only ranks 53rd in opponent rush EPA. I think we have a close game here and I have to take the points. I took 6 earlier but still like it over the 3.
Utah +4 – 2 stars.
Jan. 1 – Sugar Bowl, New Orleans LA: Baylor vs. Mississippi -1 O/U 55.5, ESPN, 8:45 p.m.
Motivation: Baylor – Medium – They won the Big 12 and should want to show up here. Ole Miss – Medium High – Playing for Matt Corral’s draft stock.
Injuries/Hold outs: None but Gerry Bohannon should be back for Baylor
SOS: Baylor 36th and Ole Miss 24th
Coach Bowl ATS: Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss, 2-2 and Dave Aranda, Baylor, N/A
Metrics: My power ratings has Baylor -1.25. Ole miss is a fast pace air raid offense type team but their defense is very suspect ranking 104th in success rate. Ole Miss at least can also run the ball ranking 21st in rush EPA. The big issue is that metrically, Baylor has a massive rushing advantage ranking 33rd in rush EPA and has a massive 5.2 rushing yards per attempt. They will win this game on the ground and by playing great D.
I like Baylor here. I think that Bohannon will take out his aggression in missing his Big 12 championship here vs Ole Miss.
Baylor +1 – 2.5 stars
Jan. 4 – Texas Bowl, Houston TX: Kansas State vs. LSU +3.5 O/U 48, ESPN, 9 p.m.
Motivation: Kansas State – Medium High – Will want to beat an SEC team. LSU – Low to very low – Kids could sit out and Coach O is gone. QB Max Johnson is transferring.
Injuries/Hold outs: *Kansas State expects quarterback Skylar Thompson, who missed the regular-season finale with an injury, to be back for the Texas Bowl. LSU has major questions at quarterback after Max Johnson recently announced he will enter the transfer portal. Fellow QB Myles Brennan did the same back in November but announced he would be staying in Baton Rouge. Brennan is not expected to play, leaving only one scholarship quarterback on the roster in true freshman Garrett Nussmeier, who has already used up his allowable games to maintain his redshirt. Quarterback questions remain for LSU, which could start a true freshman, walk-on, or converted wide receiver. It appears that LSU offensive line coach Brad Davis will serve as the interim head coach for the bowl game during the transition from Ed Orgeron to Brian Kelly. A few assistants have also departed since the end of the regular season. LSU wide receiver Trey Palmer has entered the transfer portal. Meanwhile, linebacker Damone Clark and defensive lineman Neil Farrell Jr. have opted out.
SOS: LSU 3th and Kansas State 28th
Coach Bowl ATS: LSU, Brad Davis, N/A and Chris Klieman, Kansas State, 0-1.
Metrics: Kansas State is 48th in EPA margin while LSU is 73rd. Kansas State has a .9 yards per play margin over LSU.
Decision: LSU is a total mess and I do not understand why they are even playing this bowl. Bet Kansas State Alt Line.
Kansas State -3.5 – 3 stars
*Per the Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2021-college-football-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-injuries-coaching-changes
Special thanks for injury information from The Action Network
