Auto-nation Cure Bowl in Orlando Florida – Tulane vs Louisiana +3.5 O/U 59
Well here we go right out of the gates here with a game between an option team in Tulane with a decent defense against a high powered Louisiana offense at 6.7 yards per play with a very bad defense. The reason that you see a spread of 3.5 is because of the fact that Louisiana plays in the Sun belt which is looked at as less of a conference and the Ragin Cajun’s defense should allow Tulane to almost score at will giving up 6.4 yards per play. Now we said this about the Sun Belt and how they all sucked last year and then they of course went ahead and went 5-0 in bowl games upsetting the hell out of teams. Being that Tulane also gives up a healthy 5.6 yards per play I really do not think Louisiana will be short of any points here. One would think that Louisiana isn’t the better running team against an option team but they do average 5.7 yards per rush over 4.6 for Tulane. I like the fact that the Ragin Cajuns have about 2 weeks to prepare for this team. I really can’t bet the over in good conscious when Louisiana ranks 115th in plays per game and Tulane ranks 70th but i’ll take the hook.
Louisiana +3.5 and lean over 59
New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque NM – N Texas vs Utah State -9 O/U 66.5
So this spread was at 11 and sharp money hit the N Texas side due to Utah State’s coach Matt Wells going to Texas Tech and will not be coaching the bowl game. For a while some people were calling this Utah State team the best group of 5 team, but in my opinion, that Michigan State close loss isn’t really looking quite as good at the end of the season. Now Utah State was a very nice team to bet on at 9-3 ATS this year and led by a very good quarterback Jordan Love but looking at their schedule I believe it was pretty easy. North Texas on the other hand is in an inferior division (or supposed to be) and hasn’t even played a ranked team so you can’t exactly give them much there. Both of these teams are pretty equal on defense allowing 5.1-ish yards per play but Utah state has the slight edge on offense at 6.9 yards per play over 6.4. Power ratings have Utah State by 10 but I think this bowl game could be a bit closer that that due to losing Matt Wells and facing a motivated team.
Lean N Texas +9
The Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas NV – Arizona State vs Fresno State -4.5 O/U 53.5
You play to win the game! Right Hermy? Well Herm Edwards has done a fantastic job this year going 7-5 straight up as well as 7-5 ATS. Nobody thought this team would be in the mix this year for the Pac 12 south and they just missed making it in losing to Oregon by 2 points. ASU is well coached and they have a solid defense allowing only 4.6 yards per play. Their offense isn’t too shabby either. Fresno State on the other hand also had an amazing season sealing the Mountain West championship and cashing our 6-1 ticket. AT 9-4 against the spread this team was very under appreciated. I am actually surprised that Jeff Tedford hasn’t gotten any big offers from power 5 schools. Fresno State has a very solid offense at 6.2 yards per play and a similar defense to ASU allowing 4.7 yards per play. Now the big news here to ASU that hit them pretty hard was that N’Keal Harry isn’t going to play this game and hold out for the NFL draft. Harry was the Sun Devil’s best WR by far with over 1000 receiving yards. This is definitely a big hit to this team but I also think the spread too big at -4.5 being that ASU had a harder strength of schedule. The only ranked team that Fresno State played is Boise State and they went 1-1 this year against them. I am going to watch this spread go up and up and most likely take ASU.
Strong Lean to ASU+4.5
The Camellia Bowl, Montgomery Alabama – Eastern Michigan vs Georgia Southern -1 O/U 47.5
All I have to say is “Go Eagles!” So I do not understand this line so much. I think it is more because of the bias against the Sun Belt honestly. My Power ratings have Georgia Southern as a 2.5 favorite and Sagarin has them as a 1 pointer. I must be wrong right? Well what I am definitely not wrong about is not too many people from Michigan are excited to go to Montgomery Alabama for a bowl game and I am also sure of the fact that Georgia Southern is only a little 4.5 hour drive away. I am also sure that Eastern Michigan is great against the pass in beating Purdue, Toledo and keeping up with Buffalo this year but they are bad against the run giving up 4.4 yards per carry losing to San Diego State, Northern Illinois and another option team Army by 15 points. The Georgia Southern Eagles this year average 5.3 on the ground and should be able to run all over this team.
Georgia Southern -1
New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans LA – Middle Tennessee St vs Appalachian State -7 O/U 50.5
Ok, this line got bet a bit down due to a few things. Scott Satterfield is moving on from Appalachian State to Louisville and this is Brent Stockstill’s last game playing for his dad at Middle Tennessee State. Now this line is also about perception here. Like I said before, the Sun belt hasn’t been getting the props it deserves and I think that it is WROOOOOOONG. The Mountaineers have played great against passing teams such as Arkansas State, LA Lafayette, and of course taking Penn State down to the wire. This team’s only weak spot is against the run. Did I mention that the Blue Raiders are not a polished running team? The Blue Raiders also only average 5.5 yards per play on offense to the Mountaineers 6.4. The Mountaineers also are much better on D allowing 4.3 yards per play to 5.4. This is a full 1 net yard per play difference and it will come up big in this game. Now I know that there is an interim coach for the Mountaineers and his Name is Mark Ivy. He has been with the Organization for 7 years now and I do not think the players will all of a sudden take a dive because of him. There is no real home field advantage in this bowl for anyone so I am going against the motivational narrative for the Blue Raiders and lean Appalachian State -7
Lean Appalachian State -7
