Dec 18th. The Boca Raton Bowl, UAB vs Northern Illinois +2.5 O/U 43
Well I must say if you asked which 2 teams are the most similar this year you might say Northern Illinois and UAB. Both teams pound the ball a lot and have very good defenses. Neither team can throw the ball all that well but Northern Illinois has a knack for comebacks at the end. Now the Huskies won a lot of games for only having 4.6 yards per play but they had a much harder schedule than the Blazers who averages 5.6 yards per play. Both Defenses allow about 4.7 ish yards per play. NIUs schedule ranks 73 in the nation and UAB ranks 131. Being that this total is 43.5 points you can tell that this will really be a slow and boring kind of game. I have to lean NIU here at +2.5 because they have been to bowl games before and haven’t won in a while, but at the same time UAB may be motivated to win this one being that they didn’t even have a football team 3 years ago.
Lean NIU +2.5 and lean under 43
Dec 19th. The Frisco Bowl, Frisco Texas – San Diego State vs Ohio -3 O/U 54
Looking at these 2 teams you can easily see that they both finished completely opposite of each other. Ohio since losing to Northern Illinois ripped off 5 wins out of their last 6 games beating teams like Buffalo, Akron and Western Michigan by large Margins. San Diego State on the other hand has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams like UNLV, Hawaii and Nevada. Now the Aztecs are a lot like Northern Illinois. They have a great defense with a slight weakness against the run and a boring offense averaging just 5.5 yards per play and giving up 5 on D. Ohio Has a great offense averaging 7 yards per play and giving up 6.2. So why the low spread here? It’s because San Diego State has better wins against teams like ASU, Eastern Michigan, Boise State and Air Force. If San Diego State can run this ball then they control the game clock here making it tough on Ohio to control this game. My algorithm has Ohio by 7.5 with the total at 55 here but I do not want to take this side if the Aztecs can pound the ball well against this poor Ohio defense. This game has Live Betting written all over it. See if San Diego State can establish the run and go ahead and bet from the side there.
Lean Ohio -3
Dec 20th. The Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa Bay Florida – Marshall vs South Florida +2.5 O/U 55.5
Now this bowl should be called the “unfair” bowl similar to Wisconsin vs Miami of last year. I am not sure why the bowl committee does this but it is what it is. South Florida gets to play their bowl game at home in their own stadium while Marshall will have to hope that some of their fans will show up having to travel about 900 miles away. Now I would call Marshall a “solid” to better than average team on both sides of the ball at 5.5 yards per play and allowing 4.75. 4.4 yards per rush is pretty good as well. South Florida on the other hand has a better offense at 6 yards per play but they give up 5.75. The Bulls are a running team at 5 yards per carry but it plays into Marshall’s strength allowing only 2.9 yards per run which is top 5 in the nation. S Florida played the easier part of their schedule in the beginning racking up 7 wins in a row but then when the competition got better they lost 5 games in a row and none of them were even close. I am going to handicap this game based on complete stats with USF home field. My numbers are Marshall 28 to USF 26.5. Being that the spread is -2.5 at a total of 55.5 I really have no play in this game and lean to the under.
Lean under 55.5
Dec 21st. The Bahamas Bowl, Nassau Bahamas – Florida International vs Toledo -5.5 O/U 68.5
I have to admit that I took this one earlier at +6. This is one of those spots where you try and guess motivation. Now I know it is hard to guess that but let’s take a shot. Toledo worked hard achieving this bowl game and they really deserved it. As a matter of fact they haven’t missed a bowl game since 2009. FIU on the other hand made their first bowl game in a long time last year and are still waiting on winning one. Now FIU is a good rushing and passing team and they only struggle against the run allowing 4.9 yards per rush. The Rocket’s on the other hand are very good running the ball and stopping the pass but they are also a little suspect against the run allowing 4.6 yards per rush. There is a reason why Toledo is favored here and that is they are a Mac team who runs the ball better and stops the run more adequately. The true question to me is will they actually be motivated in this bowl game? Due to the fact that FIU’s defense is slightly better as well as in yards per point on both sides of the ball, my algorithm has this much closer to a pick-em with a slight advantage to the Panthers. Plus you certainly can’t hate the fact that FIU is a second best 9-2 ATS. I have to believe that these Ohio kids from up north in the cold do not have a ton of opportunities to be on the beach while FIU lives on the beach and is dying to win this game. FIU is all business here while Toledo will be partying under the palm trees.
FIU +5.5 and ML Sprinkle lean under 68.5
Dec 21st The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise Idaho Smurf Turf – Western Michigan vs BYU -12 O/U 48.5
Both of these teams really deserve each other. Western Michigan is probably the worst Bowl team out there this year while BYU lied to all of us and pretended to be good by beating Wisconsin and Arizona, then to get destroyed by Washington and Utah State. I bet these Cougers have cost people some good money this year and therefore deserve to have to play in Boise Idaho with uncle Rico on the sidelines watching. The Broncos went 4-8 ATS this year and very much downhill since they lost PJ Fleck to Minnesota. They also deserve this bowl. I am going to keep this disgusting game short and sweet. BYU is going to run all over this team and control the ball. The Cougars can stop the run allowing only 3.7 yards per rush and played a much harder schedule. Sharp money hit BYU early and now there is no more value for me in this game. I do think the back door will be wide open here so I lean Western Michigan +12 and Lean the under 48.5
Lean W Michigan +12 and Small lean to the under 48.5
