Dec. 27 – Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit MI: Nevada vs. Western Michigan -6.5 O/U 56, ESPN, 11 a.m.
Motivation: Nevada – Low – Lost coach and staff. Players sitting. Western Michigan – Medium Low – Not a great season or destination for Western Michigan who goes to Detroit plenty of times. It will however be a home game for them.
Injuries/Hold outs: Coach Jay Norvell, who took the same position at Colorado State in an intraconference move. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward also left for the same position at Washington State, while offensive coordinator Matt Mumme, Nevada’s offensive line coach, wide receivers coach, tight ends coach, and special teams coach are expected to follow Norvell to Fort Collins. As a result, running backs coach Vai Taua will serve as the interim for the bowl game. Wolfpack quarterback Carson Strong, will sit out to prep for the NFL Draft. Cole Turner will also sit out as we wait to see if wide receiver Romeo Doubs decides to opt out. Nevada wide receivers Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart have also entered the transfer portal, along with starting right guard Gray Davis, second-team All-Mountain West linebacker Daiyan Henley, and reserve linebacker Lamin Touray.
SOS: Western Michigan is 90th and Nevada’s is 75th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Vai Taua, Nevada N/A and Tim Lester, Western Michigan, 0-1-1
Metrics: My PRs have Nevada -7.25 but with all the holdouts, the 14 point swing is warranted. Plus Western Michigan is number 4 in sack rate and that doesn’t bode well for an inexperienced QB.
Decision: Lay -6.5 with Western Michigan. Nevada is only showing up for optics purposes.
Western Michigan -6.5 – 2 stars
CANCLED – Dec. 27 – Military Bowl, Annapolis, Md: Boston College vs. East Carolina +3 O/U 52.5, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Motivation: Boston College – Medium Low – Bad bowl game and this team had much higher expectations for the season. East Carolina – High – This team hasn’t been to a bowl since 2013 and will play their asses off.
Injuries/Hold outs: Nothing much
SOS: Boston College is 72nd and East Carolina’s is 76th.
College Bowl ATS: N/A
Metrics: Boston College only has a .1 net yard per play advantage over ECU but we have to remember that their Jurkovech missed 4 or 5 games. ECU is 53rd in EPA Margin while Boston College is 93rd. My power ratings have BC -4.5
Decision: I think this spread i appropriate with the motivation factor. Lean Boston College.
Dec. 28 – Birmingham Bowl, Birmingham, Ala.: Auburn vs. Houston +2 O/U 51.5, ESPN, noon
Motivation: Auburn – Medium High – I think that this team with their new coach will want to end the season on a positive note. Houston – Medium – Great to face an SEC team but they blew their conference title hopes vs Cincinnati.
Injuries/Hold outs: Auburn did recently lose six players to the transfer portal, including its starting QB Bo Nix, RB Shaun Shivers, WR Elijah Canion, S Ladarius Tennison, DE Caleb Johnson, OG Tashawn Manning. Also not playing in the game is star cornerback Roger McCreary, along with other starters in linebacker Zakoby McClain and right tackle Brodarious Hamm. Starting center Nick Brahms will also be out for the Tigers after undergoing surgery. The team is also looking for a new offensive coordinator after firing Mike Bobo. For Houston, All-American cornerback and kick returner Marcus Jones has declared for the NFL Draft and will not play in the Birmingham Bowl.
SOS: Auburn’s is 2nd and Houston’s is 102nd
Coach Bowl ATS: Bryan Harsin, Auburn 3-2 and Dan Holgorsen, Houston, 1-7
Metrics: Houston has a nice .4 net yard per pay advantage over Auburn. Auburn ranks 66th in EPA while Houston ranks 9th. My power ratings has Houston -2.5.
Decision: It is really hard to do metrics here with the SOS being so different and Auburn without QB Bo Nix and 3 offensive lineman. Auburn should be able to have some success running the ball averaging 4.7 yards per rush and 37th in EPA as Cincinatti did vs the Cougs, but Houston should have some success passing the ball at 8.2 yards per pass while Auburn gives up 7.1 yards per pass ranking 78th in opponent pass EPA. I can’t bet Houston based on Holgerson’s horrible ATS but I can bet the over and I think both teams find ways to score.
Over 51.5 – 1.5 stars
Dec. 28 – First Responder Bowl, University Park, Tex.: Air Force vs. Louisville -1.5 O/U 55.5, ESPN, 3:15 p.m.
Motivation: Air Force – High – They would love to beat an ACC team. Louisville – Medium – They are probably content to make a bowl game and they want Malik Cunningham to shine.
Injuries/Hold outs: Louisville lost their first- and fourth-leading receivers to the transfer portal in Jordan Watkins and Justin Marshall.
SOS: Air Force is 92nd and Louisville’s is 39th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Scott Satterfield, Louisville, 3-1 and Troy Calhoun, Air Force, 6-4
Metrics: Louisville has a .3 net yard per play advantage in a harder conference. Louisville actually averages more rushing yards per attempt than Air Force at 5.4 to 5.2. My power ratings has this game Louisville -6.5.
Decision: Neither team is great against the rush but Louisville but I will trust Scott Satterfield here being that he has faced the option multiple times at Appalachian State.
Louisville -1.5 – 2 stars
Dec. 28 – Liberty Bowl, Memphis TN: Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech +9.5 O/U 59, ESPN, 6:45 p.m.
Motivation: Mississippi State – Medium – They are content to be in a bowl. Not a great destination but something different. Texas Tech – Medium High – Kids are motivated to show up to fight for a position next year, and they will try and beat an SEC team.
Injuries/Hold outs: Interim head coach Sonny Cumbie will still lead the Red Raiders in their bowl game despite already accepting the head job at Louisiana Tech. Potential first-round offensive tackle Charles Cross from Mississippi State will miss game and has declared for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Mississippi State is 10th and Texas Tech’s is 29th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Texas Tech N/A and Mike Leach, Mississippi State, 3-7
Metrics: YPP on these teams are quite equal but Mississippi State has had the harder schedule. Miss State ranks 37th in PASS EPA and 24th in EPA margin while Texas Tech ranks 122nd in opponent pass EPA and 92nd in EPA Margin.
Decision: Mike Leech wants to beat his old team bad because he says that they owe him money. My power ratings only has this Miss State -4.5 but the metrics see the passing mismatch. Strong lean to Miss State -9.5
Dec. 28 – Holiday Bowl, San Diego CA: North Carolina State vs. UCLA +1 O/U 60, Fox, 8 p.m.
Motivation: UCLA – Medium High – UCLA is on business in San Diego. NC State – Low – I think NC State wanted bigger things and blew it vs Wake Forest. Nice vacation for them though.
Injuries/Hold outs: None
SOS: NC State 64th and UCLA is 49th
Coach Bowl ATS: Dave Doeren, North Carolina State 5-2 and Chip Kelly, UCLA, 2-2
Metrics: NC State has a .4 net yard per play advantage over UCLA. NC State ranks 32nd in EPA Margin while UCLA ranks 20th. NC State is 80th in offensive success rate while UCLA ranks 86th on defense while UCLA ranks 23rd in offensive success rate and NC State ranks 3rd on defense.
Decision: This is a great game and might tell us which conference is better but my power ratings have this game UCLA -1.5 and give them a point for home field, I think -2.5. Other power ratings slighly lean NC State. It’s hard for me to bet against Dave Doeren in a bowl game here so I will lean UCLA and watch the line but I think the over has a good shot of hitting being that UCLA has such a great offense and they might struggle to stop NC State.
Dec. 28 – Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Phoenix AZ: Minnesota vs. West Virginia +4.5 O/U 44.5, ESPN, 10:15 p.m.
Motivation: Minnesota – High – I think the Gophers will continue to row boats after their Wisconsin win. West Virginia – Medium High – Good matchup for them and I think there will be motivation.
Injuries/Hold outs: RB Leddy Brown for West Virginia
SOS: West Virginia is 25th and Minnesota’s is 57th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Neal Brown, West Virginia, 2-2 and PJ Fleck, Minnesota 4-1
Metrics: Minnesota played in a tougher conference. They have a .4 net yard per play advantage over West Virginia and they rank higher in EPA Margin by a pretty significant amount at 40th to 72nd. The Gophers are better passing, rushing, against he pass and against the rush than the Mountaineers. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS away from home and West Virginia is 2-4. Lay the points.
Minnesota -4.5 – 3 stars
