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FAU vs Air Force -4.5 O/U 51.5
This game is more about matchup than power rating. Air Force had a nice start to the season beating Navy until they faced a team that could pass the ball in Utah State. Now Utah State wasn’t supposed to be good this year but they are certainly exceeding expectations. In Saying that, FAU played Florida pretty tough week 1 and they blew out another option team in Georgia Southern 38-6. FAU had a bad offense bad offense last year but N’Kosi Perry who transferred in from Miami won the starting job and his balling at 63% completions and a 7-0 TD to interception ratio. The most important thing to me in this handicap is that FAU returns 6 of their front 7 from last year and they know how to stop the run allowing only 4.15 rushing yards per attempt last year. I think that FAU can stop the option here and they hand Air Force their second loss of the season.
FAU +4.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Texas A&M vs Arkansas +5.5 O/U 47
This handicap slapped me in the face when I dove into it. It’s kinda simple to me. Who played the harder schedule? Both were pretty easy, but Arkansas had to play Texas while Texas A&M got Colorado. Slight advantage Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a massive +3.27 net yards per play and Texas A&M is at 2.67. Advantage Arkansas. Which team still has their starting quarterback in and which team doesn’t due to injury? Pig Pig Pig. Arkansas proved that they can stop the run vs Texas and Georgia Southern. They have a better EPA per rush at -.125 over Texas A&M at +.026. I think that the Razorbacks win this game outright and I think that this money line should be seasoned quite well here. Woo Pig Sooooi!
Arkansas +5.5 – 3 stars and fat sprinkle
Notre Dame vs Wisconsin -6.5 O/U 45
This is really going to be a fun game at Soldier Field and I was wondering why the heck it starts so early. These 2 teams are trying to creep into the top 10 and this big win might be good enough to get them in. Wisconsin has that loss to Penn state which isn’t a bad loss at all but at the same time, they should have won that game and they consistently blew their shot in the Red Zone. Notre Dame on the other hand keeps squeaking by team that are either bad or mediocre and last week vs Purdue showed some weakness in their secondary as well as in their overall offense. Let’s face it. Wisconsin’s problems have been in the Red zone over the past two seasons now and they need to get that monkey off of their back in order for me to really trust them. The good news for the Badgers is that they might get their second best player back from injury in LB Leo Chenal being that Jack Sanborn has been their leader and best player by far. On the other side of the coin, if you know the story, Notre Dame starting quarterback Jack Coan was a Badger and quite simply lost his job over a small injury last year and off the hype over quarterback Graham Mertz. I am certain that Coan wants to make a big statement this game but I am not sure that he has the talent to do so. Jack doesn’t have the arm strength to throw it deep over the defense as Clifford did for Penn State and I also do not think that they have the speed to beat out safeties. Graham Mertz himself has made many mistakes by fumbling RPOs and tripping our running backs and if that doesn’t get cleaned up, Wisconsin will not score many points against this Notre Dame defense. My Algorithm has the game 24.22 to 20.51 or the Badgers by about 3.75 points. My power ratings have the game Badgers by 3.5 points on the nose but factoring in Notre Dame’s injuries, I can understand it being around 6. I think that there is more upside with Mertz and the Badgers but no lean on this 6.5 spread tho I think Wisconsin wins this game. I also think points will be at a premium here so small lean to the under. I think if you tease both of these sides it could create a winning bet.
Tease the Under to 51 with Wisconsin to -.5 – 1.5 stars
