Navy vs Army +2.5 O/U 32.5
The big day is almost here at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia PA, where Army and Navy for the 123rd time in history. This game is a tradition unlike any other that takes place as a stand alone Saturday game before the bowls. I will have to say there that this game has had it’s back and fourth’s over the years, and the biggest trend to date is that the under has hit an amazing 16 TIME IN A ROW! The very reason for the low total is that time flies during this game being that both teams are triple option based teams, with long drives that run the clock thus preventing a lot of stoppages. I believe last years game only took around 2 hours and 15 minutes to finish. Now I want to warn you about this situation, and the under trend here. Over the last 16 years, the total was usually much higher than the 32.5 that you see here, and nine of those games would have went over that total had the market decide on a number as low as it is this year. There is no algorithmic position that predicts this low of a total. Both teams just looking at points alone average above 22 and give up above 23.
The Handicap on this game is simple. Both teams will try and mix it up some with a few passing plays to try and catch each other off guard but the most important thing is opponent rushing success rate. Navy gives up a ton of passing yards to average teams but they only allow 3.07 yards per rush to Army’s 5.12. Navy ranks 14th in opponent rushing success rate while Army ranks 125th. Navy’s defensive line is much more stout than Army’s and I can trust the Midshipmen to stop the run much more than I can Army. The Black Nights at least rank higher in rushing the ball at 5.58 to 4.05 respectively, but the strength of schedule that Army had ranking 125th in the nation on Sagarin pales in comparison to Navy’s ranking 60th while playing in the American Athletic conference. I Have navy winning this game by 3 points so I like them on the money line at -135 but I also lean to the over. Navy wins 19-16.
Navy -135 – 2 stars (this lines moved since I wrote this don’t take over -150)
