Friday, Dec. 16
Bahamas Bowl: Miami OH vs. UAB -11 O/U 44
Start Time: 11:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Thomas Robinson Stadium — Nassau, Bahamas
- UAB: Motivation – Medium High – This team shows up for bowl games and now they have a new coach in Trent Dilfer to try and impress.
- Miami (OH) – Medium High – This team usually shows up to bowls, but it took a lot to get bowl eligible.
- Home Field: None
- SOS about equal
- Chuck Martin, Miami (Ohio) – 3-0 ATS in bowl games
- UAB has a +1.83 net yard per play advantage
- Miami Ohio is bad on offense and in the red zone.
Small lean Miami OH and the under
Cure Bowl: Troy vs. UTSA +1 O/U 54.5
Start Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Exploria Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
- Troy: Motivation – Medium Low – They won their conference and should still be partying.
- UTSA: Motivation – Medium Low – They won their conference again and are probably Christmas shopping.
- Home Field: None
- Jeff Traylor, UTSA – 1-1 ATS in bowl games.
- Troy had the harder SOS ranking 92nd to UTSA’s 123rd.
- Troy has a .48 net yard per play advantage over UTSA.
- Both teams are top 10 in all red zone categories.
- UTSA’s defense ranks 128th in giving up explosive plays to Troy’s 12th.
- My power rating is a pickem, but I kinda like Troy here controlling the clock with that defense.
LEAN Troy -1 – 2 stars
Saturday, Dec. 17
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Louisville PK O/U 43.5
Start Time: 11:00 a.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Fenway Park — Boston, Mass.
- Cincinnati: Motivation – Medium Low – Coach Fickell being gone puts them in a slight pickle.
- Louisville: Motivation – High – Coach Satterfield leaving for Cincinnati should put a fire under their asses.
- Home Field: – None
- Strange situation here with Satterfield going to Cincinnati yet neither will coach bowl game.
- Malik Cunningham won’t play for Louisville, but Cincinnati has a few transfers themselves.
- For me, there is just too many questions to even look at the stats here. Strong lean to Louisville for motivation.
Celebration Bowl: Jackson State vs. N.C. Central +14.5 O/U 56
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Ga.
- Jackson State: Motivation – Medium Low – They lost Prime baby!
- N.C. Central: Motivation – High – Let’s beat Prime’s team.
- Home Field: None
- Motivation and disrespect is a big thing for me in this bowl. NC State had to watch Jackson State get all the media hype over the last two years.
- Sagarin has this only a 9 point spread. I trust him and I also think the Deion thing has been a massive distraction.
NC Central +14.5 – 2 stars
New Mexico Bowl: BYU vs. SMU -4 O/U 71
Start Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: University Stadium — Albuquerque, N.M.
- BYU: Motivation – Medium – Not a great bowl for them, but what the hell.
- SMU: Motivation – Medium High – End the season on a high note.
- Home Field: None
- Kalani Sitake, BYU – 2-3 ATS in bowl games.
- My power rating actually has BYU favored by 1.5 points.
- Both SOS is pretty equal on Sagarin at 64 for BYU to 62 for SMU.
- BYU has a .63 net yard per play advantage.
- QB Jaren Hall is questionable for this game and hasn’t been practicing.
- Neither defense is really any good and both rank pretty low in opponent QBR at 92 for SMU and 116 for BYU.
- Lean BYU and play it if Jaren Hall plays.
LA Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington State +3.5 O/U 54.5
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
- Fresno State: Motivation – Medium High – They get to beat Power 5.
- Washington State: Motivation – Medium – Good matchup for them.
- Home Field: Small edge to Fresno being 220 miles away but WASU will travel.
- Jake Dickert, Washington State – 0-1 ATS in bowl games.
- Jeff Tedford, Fresno State – 5-5 ATS in bowl games.
- Washington State’s top WR is transferring in De’Zhuan Striblin, WR (Transfer portal)
- SOS greatly favors Washington State at 24th to 111.
- Stats favor Fresno State having a .74 net yards per play advantage and that is using 4 games without Jake Haener.
- My power rating has Fresno a slight favorite, I make this number Fresno -2.
- Lean Washington State +3.5
LendingTree Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Rice +6.5 O/U 46
Start Time: 5:45 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium — Mobile, Ala.
- Southern Miss: Motivation – High – They wanted to get to a bowl this year.
- Rice: Motivation – High – They wanted to get to a bowl this year and were the only 5-7 team to make it. These teams used to be rivals.
- Home Field: Southern Miss being only 97 miles away.
- First bowl game for both coaches.
- SOS is pretty close with Southern Miss at 99 while Rice is 90th.
- Southern Miss has a .45 net yards per play advantage here.
- The best Unit on the Field is Southern Miss’s defense here and that is why you see a larger spread.
- My power ratings as Southern Miss, but Rice is a bit injured and the Home field takes it over for Southern miss.
Southern Miss -6.5 – 1.5 stars
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. Oregon State -10.5 O/U 52
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Allegiant Stadium — Las Vegas, Nev.
- Florida: Motivation – Low – Anthony Richardson won’t play the bowl game.
- Oregon State: Motivation – High – Beat an SEC team? 11 against a 6? SURE, and may I double down?
- Home Field: Slight edge to Oregon State who might travel some.
- Billy Napier, Florida – 1-3 ATS in bowl games.
- Jonathan Smith, Oregon State – 0-1 ATS in bowl games.
- Gonna call this the opt out bowl.
Oregon State
- Chance Nolan, QB (Transfer portal)
- Ron Hardge, CB (Transfer portal)
- Luke Musgrave, TE (Opt-out)
Florida
- Anthony Richardson, QB (Opt-out)
- O’Cyrus Torrence, OL (Opt-out)
- Gervon Dexter, DT (Opt-out)
- Josh Braun, OL (Transfer portal)
- Diwun Black, LB (Transfer portal)
- Kamar Wilcoxson, DB (Transfer portal)
- Lorenzo Lingard, RB (Transfer portal)
- Trent Whittemore, WR (Transfer portal)
- Nick Elksnis, TE (Transfer portal)
- Florida’s backup only threw the ball 14 times mainly against a terrible FCS school.
- Oregon’s Ben Gulbranson looked ok when he played due to the Chance Nolan Injury.
- This is probably a good spread.
Frisco Bowl: Boise State vs. North Texas +10 O/U 56.5
Start Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Toyota Stadium — Frisco, Texas
- Boise State: Motivation – Medium High – Not a power 5 but still will do nice with a young quarterback.
- North Texas: Motivation – High – They will want to beat Boise:
- Home Field: Huge for North Texas PLAYING PRETTY MUCH AT HOME.
- North Texas getting rid of Seth Litrell makes for more uncertainty.
- Most of the players here are not opting out.
- Boise has had the harder SOS 98th to 122nd for North Texas.
- Boise has a .38 net yards per play advantage. Boise definitely has the best unit on the field with their defense.
- My power ratings has Boise -12.25 so I think -10 is fine with the home field
