Saturday, Dec. 24
Hawai’i Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State -6.5 O/U 48.5
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex — Honolulu, Hawaii
- Middle Tennessee State: Motivation – Low – I think they have fun in Hawaii.
- San Diego State: Motivation – Medium High – They go to Hawaii often enough and will look to do business.
- Home Field: Slight edge to San Diego State due to proximity
- Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee – 3-6 ATS in bowl games.
- Brady Hoke, San Diego State – 2-3-1 ATS in bowl games.
- Neither of these coaches have been great in bowl games.
- SDSU has a SOS advantage at 91st to 126th.
- SDSU has a .4 net yards per play advantage over the Blue Raiders.
- I would look at the under this game if it wasn’t for MTSU being number 13 in Tempo. Maybe a TT under is a good look.
- San Diego State has the best unit on the field in the defense. My power number is -6.5 but I lean them because they should take care of business.
- Lean SDSU
- Lean MTSU team total under 21.5
Monday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green -3.5 O/U 47.5
Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Ford Field — Detroit, Mich.
- New Mexico State: Motivation – Medium High – This team hasn’t went bowling in a long time.
- Bowling Green: Motivation – Medium High – They made a bowl by shopping at wish but all that they got in return was Detroit Michigan.
- Home Field: Bowling Green due to being 83 miles away.
- Jerry Kill, New Mexico State – 1-5
- Diego Pavia, QB (Transfer portal) for New Mexico state.
- Bowling green has the harder SOS at 86th to 139th.
- NMSU has a 1.5 yard per play advantage over Bowling green, but they haven’t beaten anyone with a pulse minus maybe Liberty.
- Jerry Kill will kill your ticket if you back him in a bowl game.
- Diego Pavia is the better quarterback for New Mexico State so that is another check mark against the Aggies being the he is leaving.
- I Have Bowling green -6.5 points here, but I feel more comfortable betting the ML. I also think that they will be more motivated to get a bowl win close to home.
Bowling Green ML -150 – 2 stars
Tuesday, Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo +3.5 O/U 67
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Cramton Bowl — Montgomery, Ala.
- Georgia Southern: Motivation – Medium High – They haven’t played a bowl game in a while.
- Buffalo: Motivation – Medium – Hard to gauge this team who blew their chances to get to the MAC title a few weeks back.
- Home Field: Slight lean to Georgia Southern being 300 miles away.
- Clay Helton, Georgia Southern – 1-4
- Both teams will be without a few guys but nothing that major.
- SOS isn’t too far off. 83rd for Georgia Southern to 100 for Buffalo.
- GS has a .63 net yard per play advantage over the Bulls.
- The big matchup advantage for the Eagles is their passing offense ranking 21st in the nation to Buffalo’s passing defense at 95th, but I am worried that Southern can’t get their defense off of the field giving up 5.77 yards per rush ranking 127th in the nation.
- My power ratings have buffalo a 2 point dog so I will put a small play on them to cover and especially being that Clay Helton has had such bad bowl performances.
Buffalo +3.5 – 1.5 stars
First Responder Bowl: Utah State vs. Memphis -7 O/U 61.5
Start Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, Texas
- Utah State: Motivation – Medium – Not a bad place to go to get away.
- Memphis: Motivation – Medium – Medium season with a medium bowl game.
- Home Field: None
- Ryan Silverfield, Memphis – 1-1 ATS in bowl games.
- Blake Anderson, Utah State – 3-4 ATS in bowl games.
- Utah State
- RB Robert Briggs (Injury)
- CB Ajani Carter (Injury)
- CB Michael Anyanwu (Injury)
- Utah State will be without backup running back and some starting corners..
- SOS favors Memphis here slightly at 74th to 87th for Utah State.
- Memphis has a 1.37 net yards per play advantage.
- Memphis has the best unit on the field on offense and should be able to run all over Utah State who averages 4.92 yards per rush on defense.
- I have Memphis -9 so strong lean Memphis.
Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina +8 O/U 63
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Protective Stadium — Birmingham, Ala.
- East Carolina: Motivation – High – They get to beat up the talk of the town.
- Coastal Carolina: Motivation – Low – They lost their coach and most likely their quarterback Grayson McCall for this game.
- Home Field: None
- Coastal Carolina
- C Willie Lampkin (Transfer portal)
- DE Josaiah Stewart (Transfer portal)
- CB Manny Stokes (Transfer portal)
- CB Zxaequan Reeves (Transfer portal)
- S Dre Pinckney (Injury)
- East Carolina
- TE Ryan Jones (Opt-out)
- C Avery Jones (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Elijah Robinson (Transfer portal)
- S Shawn Dourseau (Transfer portal)
- Both teams are without their starting Center and good pass rushers
- Very weird how Grayson McCall will play in this bowl game. I advise strongly against it.
- Either way, East Carolina has a better SOS at 72nd to 114th.
- East Carolina has a +.76 net yard per play advantage over Coastal.
- Coastal will be giving up large amounts of points this game, but what the spread could comedown to is the back door for Coastal. East Carolina only ranks 97th in defensive success rate.
- MY Power ratings have East Carolina by -7.5 points, but I really am not too keen on Coastal here with all of the uncertainty and I also think that the coaching loss is much greater for Coastal. Eastern Michigan should be able to run all over this team regardless.
- I have East Carolina -10.5 in this situation.
East Carolina -7.5 – 2 stars
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State +3 O/U 43
Start Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Chase Field — Phoenix, Ariz.
- Wisconsin: Motivation – Medium Low – New coaching, lots of transfers and no quarterbacks.
- Oklahoma State: Motivation – Medium High – Why not beat the big 10? Not sure who plays QB for either team
- Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State – 11-5
- Oklahoma State
- QB Spencer Sanders (Transfer portal)
- RB Dominic Richardson (Transfer portal)
- WR Jaden Bray (Injury)
- WR Bryson Green (Injury)
- DT Brendon Evers (Opt-out)
- DE Trace Ford (Transfer portal)
- DE Tyler Lacy (Opt-out)
- LB Mason Cobb (Transfer portal)
- S Thomas Harper (Transfer portal)
Wisconsin
- QB Graham Mertz (Transfer portal)
- QB Deacon Hill (Transfer portal)
- RB Isaac Guerendo (Transfer portal)
- WR Stephan Bracey (Transfer portal)
- WR Markus Allen (Unknown status)
- TE Jaylan Franklin (Transfer portal)
- TE Clay Cundiff (Injury)
- TE Cam Large (Injury)
- OL Logan Brown (Transfer portal)
- OG Michael Furtney (Transfer portal)
- OG/TE Tyler Beach (Opt-out)
- OC Joe Tippman (Opt-out)
- NT Keeanu Benton (Opt-out)
- LB Tristan Monday (Transfer portal)
- LB Nick Herbig (Opt-out)
- CB Semar Melvin (Transfer portal)
- CB Jay Shaw (Opt-out)
- CB Justin Clark (Opt-out)
- S Titus Toler (Transfer portal)
- Wisconsin has a 1.43 net yard per play advantage, but I really don’t want to play this high variance game.
- The Badgers will have Chase Wolf or Myles Burkett start this game. How many times can this team hand it off to Braylon Allen?
- This total probably has gotten too low. Lean over.
Wednesday, Dec. 28
Military Bowl: Duke vs. UCF +3 O/U 62.5
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, Md.
- Duke: Motivation – Medium – Making a bowl was impressive for Mike Elko.
- UCF: Motivation – Medium Low – Maybe if this was basketball it would be higher.
- Home Field: Slight edge to Duke at 300 miles away.
- Gus Malzahn, UCF – 4-4
- UCF
- QB Mikey Keene (Transfer portal)
- QB John Rhys Plumlee (Injury)
- WR Ryan O’Keefe (Transfer portal)
- SOS about equal.
- YPP about equal at .6 ish.
- If Plumblee isn’t playing, then Duke and the under! It will be a 3rd stringer. Wait to see how he is. If he is playing, bet UCF. He is worth 6 points to the line.
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. Kansas +3 O/U 69
Start Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium — Memphis, Tenn.
- Kansas: Motivation – High – SEC and finally made a bowl game after many many years.
- Arkansas: Motivation – Medium low – I don’t like the Hogs much here being that they had higher aspirations preseason, but I certainly would not bet the under.
- Home Field: None
- Lance Leipold, Kansas – 4-1
- Sam Pittman, Arkansas – 1-0
- Arkansas
- QB Malik Hornsby (Transfer portal)
- WR Jadon Haselwood (Opt-out)
- WR Ketron Jackson (Transfer portal)
- C Ricky Stromberg (Opt-out)
- LB Drew Sanders (Opt-out)
- LB Bumper Pool (Opt-out)
- S Myles Slusher (Transfer portal)
- DB Chase Lowery (Transfer portal)
- Arkansas has more transfers out than Kansas.
- Kansas has a 1.08 net yard per play advantage.
- Kansas also had a hard SOS just like Arkansas.
- I like Kansas here and the over.
Kansas +3 – 2 stars
Over 69 – 2 stars
Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina +14 O/U 73.5
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: FOX
Location: Petco Park — San Diego, Calif.
- Oregon: Motivation – Medium – I feel this team wanted something better, but they still might put up a big effort.
- North Carolina: Motivation – Medium – This team choked their last 4 games but that doesn’t mean that they don’t finally wake up here.
- Home Field: None
- Mack Brown, North Carolina – 1-2 * Only counting North Carolina tenure
- Oregon
- CB Christian Gonzalez (Opt-out)
- North Carolina
- RB Devon Lawrence (Transfer portal)
- RB British Brooks (Injury)
- WR Josh Downs (Opt-out)
- DT Jahlil Taylor (Transfer portal)
- DT Keeshawn Silver (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Chris Collins (Transfer portal)
- LB Noah Taylor (Injury)
- CB Tony Grimes (Transfer portal)
- CB Storm Duck (Transfer portal)
- CB Dontae Balfour (Transfer portal)
- S Cam’Ron Kelly (Transfer portal)
- Looks like both QBs will play this game, but the opt out of Josh Downs and many others really ravaged this UNC offense.
- Oregon has a .77 net yards per play advantage on a tougher SOS of 25th to 66th.
- This number is starting to get a bit out of hand in my opinion being that my number is -10.5, but I will say that it’s hard to bet on UNC right now after the way that they finished the season.
- Lean UNC +14.5
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss -3.5 O/U 69.5
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: NRG Stadium — Houston, Texas
- Texas Tech: Motivation – High – They get an SEC team that plays fast like them.
- Ole Miss: Motivation – Medium – Lane Kiffen still there which is nice.
- Home Field: None – Texas is huge.
- Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss – 2-3
- CB Miles Battle (Transfer portal) for Ole Miss
- Ole miss has been a fraudulent team this year and it showed when they stepped up in competition. I see a good effort from the Red Raiders who has a solid pass defense ranking 24th in success rate.
- My power numbers have Ole miss by just 1 point.
Texas Tech +3.5 – 2 stars
Thursday, Dec. 29
Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota vs. Syracuse +10 O/U 42
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, N.Y.
- Minnesota: Motivation – Medium High – Why not play in the Big Apple?
- Syracuse: Motivation – High – Chance to beat a Big 10 team
- Home Field: Syracuse for sure being in NY.
- Dino Babers, Syracuse – 2-0
- PJ Fleck, Minnesota – 3-0
- Syracuse
- RB Sean Tucker (Opt-out)
- DT Terry Lockett (Injury)
- EDGE Stefon Thompson (Injury)
- CB Garrett Williams (Injury)
- CB Darian Chestnut (Transfer portal)
- Minnesota
- QB Tanner Morgan (Injury)
- WR Chris Autman-Bell (Injury)
- LB Braelen Oliver (Transfer portal)
- S Michael Dixon (Transfer portal)
- Great coaching records here.
- Both teams hit by some injuries and opt outs.
- Tanner Morgan QB is quetionable for Minnesota. If Morgan can’t go, QB2 Athan Kaliakmanis will start in his 4th game.
- Syracuse has the better SOS at 47th to 67th
- Both teams about equal in YPP at +1 ish.
- Minnesota has a huge matchup advantage rushing the ball at 18th in success rate to Syracuse’s ranking 118th in opponent rushing success rate.
- My power numbers have the Gophers winning this game by only 7 points right now, but with the rushing advantage and opt outs on Syracuse’s defense, i understand the line move to 10.
- There should be a sizable home field advantage for Cuse here in NY. If Morgan can’t play at all here, bet Syracuse.
Cheez-It Bowl: Florida State vs. Oklahoma -+9 O/U 65
Start Time: 5:30 p.m ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
- Florida State: Motivation – Medium – I think they could have done much better this year and they know it.
- Oklahoma: Motivation – Medium High – Pending hold outs, I think they rally around Brett Venebles.
- Home Field: Florida State but not as much because OU travels well and it’s 250 miles from Tallahassee
- Mike Norvell, Florida State – 0-4
- Florida State finally got it together mid-season and has been on a tear lately.
- Oklahoma
- QB Nick Evers (Transfer portal)
- RB Eric Gray (Opt-out)
- WR Theo Wease (Transfer portal)
- OT Wanya Morris (Opt-out)
- OT Anton Harrison (Opt-out)
- DL Jalen Redmond (Opt-out)
- LB Joseph Wete (Transfer portal)
- OT Harrison and OT Morris were the team’s starting offensive tackles, RB Gray was its bellcow running back and WR Wease had 19 catches so that hurts.
- Florida State
- WR Winston Wright Jr. (Injury)
- WR Darion Williamson (Injury)
- DE Shambre Jackson (Transfer portal)
- DE Darrell Jackson (Transfer portal)
- DB Sam McCall (Transfer portal)
- FSU QB Jordan Travis announced he will be returning next season which is a big boost for the Semis.
- YPP is about equal yet the what have you done for me lately question really leans Florida State.
- Mike Novell’s bowl record is horrible tho and even tho I bet Oklahoma, I kind of regret it.
- Lean Florida State -8.5
Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Texas -4 O/U 67.5
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Alamodome — San Antonio, Texas
- Washington: Motivation – High – They will want to beat a Big 12 Team like Texas.
- Texas: Motivation – Medium High – They get a good program in state.
- Home Field: Texas for sure only a few hours away from San Antonio.
- Texas
- QB Hudson Card (Transfer portal)
- RB Bijan Robinson (Opt-out)
- RB Roschon Johnson (Opt-out)
- WR Troy Omeire (Transfer portal)
- WR Jaden Alexis (Injury)
- LB Prince Dorbah (Transfer portal)
- LB DeMarvion Overshown (Opt-out)
- Texas has a much harder SOS here at 3rd to 57th for Washington.
- YPP is practically the same at about 1.5 net yards per play for both teams.
- The Longhorns lost Bijan Robinson and a few others to the NFL, but Washington’s secondary is terrible ranking 75th in opponent passing play success rate so Quinn Ewers, should be able to move this ball some.
- Texas on the other hand lost their best linebacker while their defense hasn’t been great against the pass ranking 48th in opponent passing success rate.
- I am concerned some for more opt outs in this bowl game.
- My power ratings has Texas -6 here, but the drop outs are really hurting Texas here and more might be coming. I think taking 4 with washington is a good move.
Washington +4 – 2.5 stars
