Friday, Dec. 30
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: N.C. State vs. Maryland -1 O/U 48
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Bank of America Stadium — Charlotte, N.C.
- Maryland: Motivation – Medium – They should want to give it a go.
- North Carolina State: Motivation – Medium Low – Why not give it a go being so close to home but they were not rewarded much having to stay in state. The preseason expectations were so high on the Wolfpack.
- Home Field: NC State only 165 miles away.
- Dave Doeren, North Carolina State – 5-2
- Mike Locksley, Maryland – 1-0
- SOS about equal with Maryland at 49 and NC State at 53.
- Maryland has a .98 yards per play advantage here.
- Maryland
- WR Dontay Demus Jr. (Opt-out)
- WR Jacob Copeland (Opt-out)
- NC State
- QB Devin Leary (Transfer portal)
- QB M.J. Morris (Injury)
- RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (Injury)
- WR Devin Carter (Transfer portal)
- NC State has the better defense here, but Maryland is the better team as a whole.
- Maryland will be without two of their best three receivers.
- I think Maryland will be motivated for Tauli Tagovailoa who could return next year.
- I have Maryland power rated 3.75 points better than NC State. Gonna at least lean the Terps here and I probably will eventually take them.
Maryland -1 – 2 stars
Sun Bowl: Pitt vs. UCLA -5.5 O/U 53.5
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: CBS
Location: Sun Bowl — El Paso, Texas
- Pitt: Motivation – Medium – Kedon Slovis entered the transfer portal but Nate Yarnell looked pretty good.
- UCLA: Motivation – Medium – Last chance to show off to the NFL for DTR.
- Home Field: None
- Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh – 1-4
- Chip Kelly, UCLA – 2-2
- Pittsburgh
- QB Kedon Slovis (Transfer portal)
- QB Nick Patti (Injury) but might play
- DT Calijah Kancey (Opt-out)
- DE Nate Temple (Injury)
- DT Calijah Kancey (Opt-out)
- EDGE John Morgan III (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Sam Williams (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Deslin Alexandre (Opt-out)
- EDGE Habakkuk Baldonado (Injury)
- LB SirVocea Dennis (Opt-out)
- S Brandon Hill (Opt-out)
- S Judson Tallandier II (Transfer portal)
- Surprisingly, not a lot of opt outs as of yet, but this line crashed down as UCLA was at least a 6 point favorite.
- SOS is about equal with 63 for Pitt and 58 for UCLA
- UCLA has a .37 yards per play advantage over Pitt.
- This bowl should be a fun matchup of offense vs defense here, and Pittsburgh has an amazing pass rush ranking 4th in sack margin that could fluster DTR.
- I only have UCLA -1.5 on the power rating, but does the stop down from Slovis to Patti or Yarnell warrant a move past the three? I like how Pitt finished their season here, but the recent added opt outs to more defensive players hurts Pitt.
- Lean Pitt +5.5
Gator Bowl: South Carolina vs. Notre Dame -2.5 O/U 51.5
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: TIAA Bank Field — Jacksonville, Fla.
- South Carolina: Motivation – Medium High – Bad start yet they made a bowl game which is huge.
- Notre Dame: Motivation – Medium Low – Their QB Drew Pine is transferring and Notre Dame wanted something bigger in my opinion.
- Home Field: None
- Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame – 0-1
- Shane Beamer, South Carolina – 1-0
- Notre Dame
- QB Drew Pyne (Transfer portal)
- QB Tyler Buchner (Injury)
- TE Michael Mayer (Opt-out)
- DL Jacob Lacey (Transfer portal)
- DE Isaiah Foskey (Opt-out)
- DE Ositadinma Ekwonu (Transfer portal)
- DB Jayden Bellamy (Transfer portal)
- South Carolina
- RB Marshawn Lloyd (Transfer Portal)
- RB Christian Beal-Smith (Injury)
- WR Josh Vann (Injury)
- WR Antwane Wells (Injury)
- WR Corey Rucker (Transfer portal)
- TE Jaheim Bell (Transfer portal)
- TE Austin Stogner (Transfer portal)
- TE Traevon Kenion (Retirement)
- DL Zacch Pickens (Opt-out)
- DB RJ Roderick (Transfer portal)
- CB Cam Smith (Opt-out)
- CB Darius Rush (Opt-out/Injury)
- Too many opt outs to care about stats, but ND might be getting QB Tyler Buckner back so I think that this line is a free roll here for the Irish. Take ND
ND -2.5 – 2 stars
Arizona Bowl: Ohio vs. Wyoming +1 O/U 42
Start Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: Barstool
Location: Arizona Stadium — Tucson, Ariz.
- Ohio: Motivation – Medium High – Tucson isn’t much different than Tombstone Arizona but at least it’s warmer.
- Wyoming: Motivation – Medium – Not sure what these kids will do against a MAC team here.
- Home Field: None
- Craig Bohl, Wyoming – 11-3 ATS
- Ohio
- QB Kurtis Rourke (Injury) for Ohio
- Wyoming
- RB Titus Swen (Transfer portal)
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- RB Joey Braasch (Transfer portal)
- RB Dawaiian McNeely (Injury)
- RB D.Q. James (Injury)
- WR Joshua Cobbs (Transfer portal)
- DE Oluwaseyi Omotosho (Transfer portal)
- Ohio looked terrible vs Toledo without Rourke, and I can’t see them looking any better this game all the way in Tucson.
- Wyoming lost all their running backs and their best WR and Defensive end.
- Both teams about equal in yards per play close to even.
- Craig Bohl is too good at bowl games to ignore playing Wyoming here for something.
Wyoming PK – 1 star
Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs. Clemson -5.5 O/U 63.5
Start Time: 8:00 P.M. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.
- Clemson: Motivation – Medium High – Dabo is a great coach and they have a new life with their young QB in Cade Klubnik.
- Tennessee: Motivation – Medium low – They still get to play Clemson even after the rough loss to South Carolina with the injury to Hendon Hooker that took them out of the Playoffs.
- Home Field: None
- Josh Heupel, Tennessee – 1-3
- Dabo Swinney, Clemson – 12-6
- Tennessee
- QB Hendon Hooker (Injury)
- WR Jalin Hyatt (Opt-out)
- WR Cedric Tillman (Opt-out)
- WR Jimmy Calloway (Transfer portal)
- Clemson
- WR Beaux Collins (Injury)
- WR Decari Collins (Transfer portal)
- WR EJ Williams (Transfer portal)
- DT Myles Murphy (Opt-out)
- DE Xavier Thomas (Injury)
- LB Trenton Simpson (Opt-out)
- Let the Cole Klubnik Era begin.
- It’s hard to know the upgrade from Cole Klubnik when he lost two of his top 4 receivers.
- At the same time, how good is Joe Milton who had to do essentially nothing at Vanderbilt and is without two of his top four receivers.
- I trust Dabo here more than Heuple, but I think that the under might be a good look in this game.
Under 63.5 – 2 stars
Saturday, Dec. 31
Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky +2.5 O/U 31.5
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Nissan Stadium — Nashville, Tenn.
- Iowa: Motivation – Medium – Fun destination for these kids in Nash-Vegas, but by the way that they play offense, I don’t expect them to do much.
- Kentucky: Motivation – Medium low – I don’t think Kentuckians like Tennessee. I might be wrong.
- Home Field: Kentucky somewhat only going 212 miles away.
- Kirk Ferentz, Iowa – 11-6-1
- Mark Stoops, Kentucky – 3-2-1
- Kentucky
- QB Will Levis (Opt-out)
- RB Chris Rodriguez (Opt-out)
- RB Kavosiey Smoke (Transfer portal)
- Iowa
- QB Alex Padilla (Transfer portal)
- QB Spencer Petras (Injury)
- Iowas QB Joey Labas, has never attempted a pass.
- QB Keiya Sheron will be at the helm for the Wildcats.
- Both teams are without a quarterback but I think Kentucky lost more without their two main running backs.
- This is the lowest total in college football, but I sure as hell am not taking the over.
- Neither offense is any good, but I think Iowa wins by 2 points. Kirk Ferentz is too good in bowls.
Iowa PK -125 – 1.5 stars
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State +6 O/U 56
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.
- Kansas State: Motivation – High – Playing Nick Saben and Alabama really says it all.
- Alabama: Motivaiton – Medium – But Don’t count out Nick Saben here. Same thing happened in 2019 where they put a whooping on Michigan. (phyliss)
- Home Field: Alabama should have more fans here 288 miles away from Tuscaloosa.
- Chris Klieman, Kansas State – 1-1
- Nick Saban, Alabama – 11-8 (at Alabama)
- So far, no major transfers or opt outs affecting this bowl minus maybe Alabama’s starting guard who went to TCU in Javion Cohen.
- Alabama has a 1.4 net yard per play advantage here.
- Bama will lose some guys to transfer, but QB Bryce Young, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, EDGE Will Anderson, CB Malachi Moore, S Jordan Battle, and S Brian Branch are all in right now.
- Will Howard will quarterback once again for Kansas State, but he isn’t all that experienced like Bryce Young is in big situations.
- Remember when people thought Alabama wouldn’t be motivated to beat Michigan in 2019? How did that go?
- I have Alabama -9.5.
Alabama -6 – 3 stars
Fiesta Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal): Michigan vs. TCU +8 O/U 58
Start Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Ariz.
- Michigan: Motivation – High – Playoffs
- TCU: Motivation – High – Playoffs
- Home Field: Michigan has more fans than TCU so slight advantage Blue.
- Jim Harbaugh, Michigan – 3-5
- Sonny Dykes, TCU – 2-2
- Michigan
- RB Blake Corum (Injury)
- TE Colston Loveland (Injury)
- TCU is coming into this game relatively healthy, but they haven’t faced a defense like Michigan’s all year long ranking 3rd in EPA per play and 8th in success rate.
- Max Duggan has a ton of heart and this team very much deserved to make it this far by the way that they finished, but I think that they were also fortunate this year to win some of the game that they have, and it could all catch up to them this game.
- Michigan has a .7 yards per play advantage over TCU and they rank higher in success rate.
- I am not really worried about the Blake Chorum injury as Donavan Edwards has been sensational at 7.45 yards per carry.
- Michigan is the experienced team here and a Trust them more than TCU.
- I have Michigan -11, but I like the first half more due to TCU’s magic at the end of games.
Michigan 1st half -4 – 2.5 stars
Peach Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal): Georgia vs. Ohio State +6.5 O/U 62
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Ga.
- Ohio State: Motivation – High – Playoffs
- Georgia: Motivation – High – Playoffs
- Home Field: Slight lean to Georgia being in their own State.
- Kirby Smart, Georgia – 7-2
- Ryan Day, Ohio State – 1-3
- Georgia
- WR Ladd McConkey (Injury)
- OL Warren McClendon (Injury)
- Ohio State
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Injury)
- RB TreVeyon Henderson (Injury)
- RB Miyan Williams (Injury)
- OG Matt Jones (Injury)
- LB Teradja Mitchell (Transfer portal)
- I think that Ladd McConkey does play for Georgia but I haven’t heard his status.
- Georgia has had a slightly harder schedule ranking 32nd to Ohio State’s ranking 44th
- Ohio State has a .22 net yard per play advantage, but I also think that Georgia shut it down early against a lot of the teams that they have played.
- Ohio State has some big running back issues with Henderson out, and they will have to rely some on their young backups.
- My number is Georgia -7 in this game. Something is wrong with Ohio State and I feel that CJ Stroud isn’t the same without a clean pocket.
Monday, Jan. 2
ReliaQuest Bowl: Illinois vs. Mississippi State +1 O/U 46
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN2
Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.
- Mississippi State: Motivation – High – They will want to win this for Mike Leach.
- Illinois: Medium High – Illinois first bowl game in a while. Getting to play SEC is nice, but Illinois blew their chances to win the Big 10 West. Let’s hope Brett doesn’t hit it too hard in Tampa!
- Home Field: None
- Bret Bielema, Arkansas – 5-4
- Illinois
- RB DD Snyder (Transfer portal)
- RB Chase Brown (Opt-out)
- TE Luke Ford (Opt-out)
- LB Ezekiel Holmes (Injury)
- CB Devon Witherspoon (Opt-out)
- CB Tahveon Nicholson (Injury)
- S Sydney Brown (Opt-out)
- Mississippi State
- RB Dillon Johnson (Transfer portal)
- RB Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
- RB J.J. Jernighan (Transfer portal)
- RB Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
- WR Rara Thomas (Transfer portal)
- WR Zavion Thomas (Transfer portal)
- S Collin Duncan (Declared for the draft)
- Illinois has a .78 net yard per play advantage here.
- The death of Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach was devastating, but I think it rallies this Bulldogs team to try and win one for the gipper.
- Mississippi State has had the harder SOS ranking 17th to Illinois at 52nd.
- Illinois defense is the best unit on the field even with the loss of DC Ryan Walters, but they might have some opt outs.
- If Illinois keeps it together, I like them to win the game, but their transfers are really decimating this defense.
- Lean Illinois -1, but the Mike
Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Purdue +15 O/U 56.5
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
- LSU: Motivation – Medium – Lost chances to get into playoffs and some kids will sit out.
- Purdue: Motivation – Medium – They get to try and beat an overrated SEC team but Jeff Brohm is going to Louisville.
- Home Field: None
- Brian Kelly, LSU – 5-9
- LSU
- QB Jayden Daniels (Injury)
- WR Jack Bech (Transfer portal)
- WR Kyren Lacy (Injury)
- WR Jaray Jenkins (Opt-out)
- EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Opt-out)
- LB Phillip Webb (Transfer portal)
- CB Jay Ward (Opt-out)
- DT Maason Smith (Injury)
- NT Jaquelin Roy (Opt-out)
- EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Opt-out)
- EDGE Ali Gaye (Opt-out)
- EDGE Desmond Little (Transfer portal)
- LB Kolbe Fields (Transfer portal)
- LB Phillip Webb (Transfer portal)
- CB Jay Ward (Opt-out)
- CB Sevyn Banks (Injury)
- CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (Transfer portal)
- CB Damarius McGhee (Transfer portal)
- CB Mekhi Garner (Opt-out)
- S Derrick Davis Jr. (Transfer portal)
- Purdue
- RB Kobe Lewis (Transfer portal)
- LG Spencer Holstege (Transfer portal)
- CB Cory Trice (Opt-out)
- QB Aidan O’Connell (Opt-out)
- RB King Doerue (Injury)
- WR Charlie Jones (Opt-out)
- WR Elijah Canion (Injury)
- WR Broc Thompson (Injury)
- TE Payne Durham (Opt-out)
- CB Cory Trice (Opt-out)
- This line shot up after Jeff Brohm announced that he is moving to Louisville and it got much worse when O’Connell opted out, but I have to wonder if it has went up too much. Jeff’s brother Brian will be the interim coach for this game. LSU only as a .73 net yard per play advantage, and they lost their best corner and edge rusher to the NFL.
- I don’t like Chip Kelly’s bowl ATS here at 5-9. Lean Purdue.
Cotton Bowl Classic: USC vs. Tulane +2.5 O/U 62
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
- USC: Motivation – Low – The shank protectors blew their chances at the playoffs and Pac 12 title in 1 day. Kids are leaving as well.
- Tulane: Motivation – Medium High – Keep the good feelings going!
- Home Field: None supposedly, but I think the crowd goes for Tulane so there’s that.
- Willie Fritz, Tulane: 12-8
- Lincoln Riley, USC -2-2
- USC
- QB Caleb Williams (Injury)
- C Brett Neillon (Injury)
- OG Andrew Vorhees (Injury)
- LB Ralen Goforth (Transfer portal)
- USC has the SOS at 46th to 73rd and they have the talent, but Tulane’s defense is certainly better ranking 59th in success rate to USC at 127th.
- Tulane has the net yards per play advantage at .68, but they haven’t quite had the schedule like USC has.
- My pure power ratings have it at -7, but with the offensive line issues I would make it more at -4 if USC was motivated and healthy.
- I also think that more opt outs are coming for USC like WR Jordan Addison and Tahj Washington so that would be really rough if that is the case.
- If I am Kaleb Williams, I do not play this game because I have nothing really to gain by it. Lean Tulane.
Rose Bowl Game: Utah vs. Penn State +2 OU 52
Start Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Rose Bowl — Pasadena, Calif.
- Utah: Motivation – High – It’s the Rose Bowl.
- Penn State: Motivation – High – It’s the Rose Bowl.
- Home Field: None
- James Franklin, Penn State – 6-4
- Kyle Whittingham, Utah – 10-5
- Penn State
- WR Parker Washington (Opt-out)
- DL Rodney McGraw (Transfer portal)
- CB Joey Porter Jr. (Opt-out)
- Utah
- RB Tavion Thomas (Opt-out)
- TE Dalton Kincaid (Opt-out)
- DB Malone Mataele (Transfer portal)
- CB Clark Phillips III (Opt-out)
- Both teams without their best pass catcher and their best cover corner.
- Both strength of schedules about equal at 41 ish.
- Penn State has a .4 net yards per play advantage.
- Utah has the best unit on the field in their offense, but how much does it downgrade with Kincade out?
- From a side perspective, who do you trust more? Franklin or Whittingham? Clifford or Rising?
- I remember seeing Utah struggle against running quarterbacks over this year against Florida, UCLA, Oregon and USC until Williams got hurt. I think I see a lot of points here.
Over 52 – 2.5 stars
Monday, Jan. 9
College Football Playoff National Championship Game: TBD What is the teams and the spread?
- Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Location: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
