College Football Bowl Games December 22nd – December 26th Info, Plays, & Leans – Sports Betting

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Friday, Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl:  UCF vs Georgia Tech +5 O/U 66.5
Location:  Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Time:  6:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Georgia Tech’s Motivation:  High – They don’t make a lot of bowl games and this is a great opportunity to beat the Big 12.

UCF’s Motivation:  Medium High – This team will be about business and close to home.

Home:  UCF has a home field advantage being only 100 miles away.

Key guys missing:  

UCF:

• Starting CB Corey Thornton (667 snaps) is transferring.
• C Drake Metcalf (213 snaps but lost job midway through season) is transferring.
• S Jireh Wilson (447 snaps) didn’t play in finale, and fellow DB Braeden Marshall (257 snaps) left early with an injury

Georgia Tech:

• Starting EDGE Kyle Kennard (534 snaps) is transferring.
• Starting CB Kenan Johnson (521 snaps) is transferring.

Net YPP:  UCF +1.25

Basic Stats:  

	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
UCF Offense	7.13 (6)	5.65 (5)	157.87 (17)
Georgia Tech Defense	6.29 (116)	5.41 (130)	134.03 (75)
Georgia Tech Offense	6.4 (28)	5.39 (9)	139.8 (55)
UCF Defense	5.77 (79)	4.84 (114)	120.33 (21)

 

Key Stats:  UCF’s pass EPA is 30th in the nation.  It would even be higher if John Rhys Plumblee didn’t miss games due to injury.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Gus Malzahn, UCF: 4-5

Verdict:  Both offenses are good with UCF having the advantage, yet both defenses are trash.   UCF is better in pretty much every facet of the game though against a rough Big 12 schedule, but was Georgia Tech’s schedule harder having to face some of the best teams in college football?   We can’t ignore that Georgia Tech beat Miami, North Carolina and kept it very close with Louisville and Georgia.  They step up when it comes to big competition.    I have UCF by 3 points.

Play:  Georgia Tech Lean but might play it late.

Saturday, Dec. 23

Birmingham Bowl:  Duke vs Troy -7 O/U 44.5
Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
Time: 12 p.m.
TV Channel:  ABC

Duke’s Motivation:  Medium low – I think that Duke had higher aspirations this year and they also lost their coach.

Troy’s Motivation:  Medium low – Nice to play a Power 5 but it’s Duke so not all that rewarding after winning the Sun Belt.   Coach is leaving so that leaves a damper on some things.

Home:  Troy gets home field being only 145 miles from Birmingham.

Key guys missing:  

Troy:

• Head coach Jon Sumrall has agreed to take the open head-coaching job at Tulane.  Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato will serve as the interim head coach for the bowl game, and Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parker will take over full-time following the bowl game.

Duke:

• Mike Elko has left for Texas A&M. Associate head coach Trooper Taylor will serve as the interim head coach.
• Starting QB Riley Leonard (I’d expect Grayson Loftis to start; played in seven games) is transferring.
• Starting EDGE RJ Oben (404 snaps) is transferring.
• Starting DL Aeneas Peebles (443 snaps) is transferring.
• Starting LB Dorian Mausi (387 snaps) is transferring.
• Starting DB/KR Jaylen Stinson (767 snaps) is transferring.
• Starting RB Jordan Waters is transferring.
• RB Jaquez Moore (102 carries) is transferring.
• Starting C Scott Elliott didn’t play in the final few games (428 snaps) might still be injured.
• S Terry Moore got hurt late in the season (391 snaps) might still be injured.
• Duke starting DL DeWayne Carter earned a Senior Bowl invite and could sit out (548 snaps).
• OT Graham Barton is opting out.

Net YPP:  Troy +1.03

Basic Stats:

	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Duke Offense	5.68 (72)	4.94 (25)	120.51 (105)
Troy Defense	4.74 (11)	3.1 (10)	123.04 (31)
Troy Offense	6.3 (33)	4.48 (52)	151.86 (25)
Duke Defense	5.15 (31)	3.93 (53)	123.02 (30)

 

Key Stats:   Duke had the much harder SOS, but they are just missing a bunch of guys.  Losing their coach is certainly a kick in the pants.   Troy’s defense is the best unit on the field.

Coach Bowl ATS:

None

Verdict:  I think that Troy can move the ball past a team with a bunch of defensive opt outs.  Troy has the better defense and should be able to stop Duke on offense without their starting QBs and running back.  The question is, how much is too much?   I was about to bet Troy, but now that Coach Jon Sumrall took the Tulane Job, I am a little worried about motivation.

Play:   Lean Troy -7

Camellia Bowl:  Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State -2.5 O/U 54.5
Location:  Crampton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
Time:  12 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Arkansas State’s Motivation:  Medium High –  Arkansas State should want to take care of business.  Butch Jones is 6-1 ATS in Bowl games.

Northern Illinois Motivation:  Medium – Why not beat another group of 5 team?

Home:  Slight advantage to Arkansas State yet still 400 miles away.

Key Guys Missing:

Arkansas State:

• Starting LB Javante Mackey (not on bowl depth chart; 739 snaps)
• DL Kadan Lewis (not on bowl depth chart; 235 snaps)

Northern Illinois:

• None but they did lose a few WRs to injury late in the season.

Net YPP:  Northern Illinois +1.07

Basic Stats:

	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Northern Illinois Offense	5.76 (63)	5.05 (20)	121.62 (102)
Arkansas State Defense	6.19 (114)	4.76 (110)	150.79 (121)
Arkansas State Offense	5.84 (57)	4.21 (77)	132.73 (70)
Northern Illinois Defense	5.04 (26)	4.22 (73)	114.35 (11)

 

Key Stats:  NIU has a +6 Sack Margin while Arkansas State is -6.   NIU number 15th in opponent passing success rate.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Butch Jones, Arkansas State: 6-1-1
• Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois: 1-0

Verdict:  Northern Illinois and Arkansas State are basically at pickem in my numbers.  The good news for the Huskies is they do get a good WR back from possible transfer.  The numbers say that NIU should be able to run all over this team and stop the pass which is the one thing that Arkansas State does a heck of a lot.   I lean NIU for sure, but will wait on the number.

Play:  NIU if it gets to a 3 or better.  

Armed Forces Bowl:  Air Force vs. James Madison -1.5 O/U 40.5
Location:  Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Time:  3:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ABC

Air Force’s Motivation:  High – They always want to win the Armed Forces Bowl while coach Calhoun is 8-4 ATS.

James Madison’s Motivation:  High – First bowl game?  Hell yes!

Home:  None:  both over 700 miles away.

Key Guys Missing:

James Madison:

• DE Jalen Green (NFL prospect with 15.5 sacks) missed the final three games.
• Starting LT Tyshawn Wyatt was lost for the season in Week 9, causing some offensive line re-shuffling.

Air Force:

• Head coach Troy Calhoun said quarterback Zac Larrier could return for the bowl game.
• He said the same for wide receivers Dane Kinamon (309 snaps) and Jared Roznos (207 snaps).
• Starting CB Jerome Gaillard (340 snaps) missed the final four games.
• Starting SPUR LB C.J. Boyd (260 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 7.

Net YPP:  James Madison +.47

Basic Stats:

	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Air Force Offense	5.78 (62)	5.04 (21)	148.84 (34)
James Madison Defense	4.89 (16)	2.09 (1)	125.77 (40)
James Madison Offense	6.28 (34)	4.02 (91)	163.62 (10)
Air Force Defense	4.85 (15)	3.13 (11)	129.33 (58)

 

Key Stats:  James Madison ranks 5th in passing success rate and 15th in pass EPA.  This is Air Force’s weakness on defense ranking 65th in opponent passing success rate.

Bowl Coach ATS:

• Troy Calhoun, Air Force: 8-4

Verdict:  Air force is amazing at running the ball and they do have a few passing tricks up their sleeve, but is this enough against the number 1 rushing defense in football?  Probably not.  James Madison should be able to pass the ball on this team like they did against almost everyone in the Sun Belt.  I expect them to win this game even with Tory Calhoun’s amazing bowl record.

Play:  James Madison -1.5 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl:  Utah State vs Georgia State +1.5 O/U 59.5
Location:  Albertson’s Stadium, Boise, Idaho
Time:  3:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Utah State’s Motivation:  Medium Low – This is not a rewarding place to play.  It’s almost like a prison sentence playing at a place you travel to every other year.

Georgia State’s Motivation:  Medium Low – They will be on a business trip until they actually land in Boise.  Then they will want to leave.

Home:  Utah State is only 293 miles away but let’s just home the fans show up.  2 points max.

Key Guys Missing:

Utah State:

• CB Avante Dickerson (423 snaps) didn’t play in the regular-season finale.

Georgia State:

• Stud starting RB Marcus Carroll (719 snaps) is transferring.
• Backup RB KZ Adams (82 snaps) is transferring.
• Top WR Robert Lewis (759 snaps) is transferring.
• Starting RT Montavious Cunningham (743 snaps) is transferring.
• Starting CB Bryquice Brown (566 snaps) is transferring.

Net YPP:  Utah State +1.47

Basic Stats:

	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Utah State Offense	6.17 (40)	4.83 (32)	144.73 (44)
Georgia State Defense	6.36 (120)	4.24 (75)	154.76 (128)
Georgia State Offense	5.53 (78)	4.44 (57)	137.57 (64)
Utah State Defense	5.53 (66)	4.79 (112)	125.91 (42)

 

Key Stats:  Georgia State ranks 117th in opponent passing success rate.  Not good.

Bowl Coach ATS:

• Shawn Elliot, Georgia State: 3-1
• Blake Anderson, Utah State: 3-5

Verdict:  The only advantage that I see for Georgia State is sack margin, but that is because Utah State throws the ball a lot.  Utah State should be able to move the ball at will here with a huge net yards per play advantage.   Take Utah State who also has been to Boise.

Play:  Utah State -1.5

68 Ventures Bowl:  Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama -17 O/U 44.5
Location:  Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
Time:  7 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Eastern Michigan’s Motivation:  Medium High – Chris Creighton is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and he is a massive dog here.   Great location as well.

South Alabama’s Motivation:  Medium – This program has been on the rise over the past few years.

Home:  This is LITERALLY a home game for South Alabama.   There will be a few Eastern Michigan fans there though on vacation.

Key Guys Missing:

Eastern Michigan:

• Starting QB Austin Smith to transfer.  Ike Udengwu III would start if Smith doesn’t play. Udengwu is more of a runner who came in for certain run packages during the year and even started a game.
• Starting EDGE Mikah Coleman (445 snaps) to transfer.
• DL Alex Merritt (281 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting OG Zack Conti (624 snaps) to transfer.

South Alabama:

• Top WR Caullin Lacy (91 catches, 1,300-plus yards) to transfer.
• Star RB La’Damian Webb is opting out.
• Starting LT Jordan Davis (513 snaps) missed the finale with an injury.

Net YPP:  South Alabama +2.02 

Basic Stats:

	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Eastern Michigan Offense	4.5 (129)	3.43 (115)	109.1 (123)
South Alabama Defense	5.22 (39)	3.27 (18)	138.41 (85)
South Alabama Offense	6.18 (39)	4.44 (58)	151.59 (26)
Eastern Michigan Defense	5.56 (68)	4.48 (90)	125.56 (40)

 

Key Stats:  USA is 17th in EPA margin while EMU is 95th.  

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Kane Wommack, South Alabama: 0-1
• Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan: 4-1

Verdict:  This is the 2nd largest spread in bowl season and it could end up the largest if some guys from Oregon opt out of the Fiesta bowl.   The scariest thing about this is that Chris Creighton is like 1 Billion – 3 ATS as a double digit dog.  Just in saying that, I think there is value on EMU.  They play slow and bait the other team into mistakes.   Hold your nose and play the Eagles if Austin Smith plays.

Play:  EMU +17 small but no rush

Las Vegas Bowl:  Utah vs Northwestern +6.5 O/U 41.5
Location:  Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Time:  7:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ABC

Utah’s Motivation:  Medium – This team had higher expectations but this is still a cool place to play.

Northwestern’s Motivation: Medium High – What a great bowl ending a great season overcoming expectations for the Wildcats.    David Braun will have them fired up.

Home: None – Utah is closer but both teams will show.

Key Guys Missing:

Utah:

• QB Nate Johnson (expected to enter transfer portal) – QB Bryson Barns will however play if Nate doesn’t.
• WR Mikey Matthews (345 snaps) to transfer.
• CB JaTravis Broughton (434 snaps) to transfer.
• WR Devaughn Vele (669 snaps) is opting out.
• Utah lost two important defensive starters earlier this season to injury in LB Lander Barton and EDGE Logan Fano.

Northwestern:

• None

Net YPP:  Utah +.49

Basic Stats:

	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Utah Offense	5.23 (99)	4.37 (67)	123.09 (97)
Northwestern Defense	5.29 (47)	4.23 (74)	129.11 (56)
Northwestern Offense	4.71 (124)	2.95 (126)	132.02 (74)
Utah Defense	5.32 (49)	3.22 (15)	126.08 (45)

 

Key Stats:  Utah has had the harder SOS ranking 8th compared to Northwestern’s 59th on Sagarin.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Kyle Whittingham, Utah: 10-6

Verdict:   Utah has a very solid defense, but their offense certainly leaves much to the imagination.  Really rough finish to the season losing to Washington, Arizona and beating a bad Colorado team at home by 6.  NU had the much better finish winning three games in a a row.   I don’t see how the Ute’s can get margin here and the Wildcats will be very motivated.   Take the Cats.

Play:  Northwestern +6.5 

Hawai’i Bowl:  Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State -9.5 O/U 49.5
Location:  Clarence T.C. Ching Athletic Complex, Honolulu, Hawai’i
Time:  10:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Coastal Carolina’s Motivation: Low – Great destination and I doubt that these kids ever get to Hawaii that often.

San Jose State’s Motivation:  High – This team will be on a business trip and they go here every other year.  They should want to win this game and show that they are the true MW Champs.

 

Key Stats:  There is no more key than Grayson McCall missing this game.  He is their only shot in keeping it close.   SJSU is number 3 in Rush EPA while Coastal is number 101 on defensive rush EPA.

Coach Bowl ATS: 

• Brent Brennan, San Jose State: 0-2

Verdict:  I think that without Grayson McCall, Coastal has no chance.  SJSU has improved greatly and will want to prove that they are the team that should have won the Mountain West.   They should be able to run all over Coastal especially if their linebacker is out.  My issue is that backup QB Jarrett Guest did ok vs Marshall and Army.

Play:   Lean SJSU 

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl:  Bowling Green vs. Minnesota -3.5 O/U 39.5
Location:  Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Time:  2 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Bowling Green’s Motivation:  High – Not a great destination but still a good opponent to try and beat.

Minnesota’s Motivation:  Low – Ugly opponent to face and a bad destination.

Home:  Bowling Green is only 80 miles away.  Not sure how many Gophers will show up.

Key Guys Missing:

Bowling Green:

• Stud CB Jalen Huskey (624 snaps; first-team All MAC) to transfer.
• RB Ta’ron Keith (373 snaps and leading receiver) to transfer.
• Starting S Trent Simms (418 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 10 could still be injured.

Minnesota:

• Starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis (773 snaps) to transfer.
• Backup QB Drew Viotto to tranfer.  Assuming QB Cole Kramer (6 snaps) will start
• Monitor the status of Minnesota RB Darius Taylor (183 snaps).
• Starters S Darius Green (499 snaps) and LB Maverick Baranowski (372 snaps) missed the finale, but LB Cody Lindenberg did return.
• Keep an eye on future pro S Tyler Nubin (768 snaps) who I’d imagine will sit out.

Net YPP:   Bowling Green +1.1

Basic Stats:

	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Minnesota Offense	4.8 (120)	3.89 (95)	113.71 (120)
Bowling Green Defense	5.28 (44)	3.87 (47)	129.29 (57)
Bowling Green Offense	5.4 (84)	4.18 (81)	126.55 (91)
Minnesota Defense	6.01 (96)	4.72 (107)	139.52 (89)

 

Key Stats:   Minnesota’s SOS is much higher at 49th to Bowling Green’s 110th.  

Verdict:  Bowling Green plays in the MAC while Minnesota plays in the Big 10 so SOS does matter.   The Gophers are on their 3rd string QB in senior Cole Kramer, but I do not think that he is any good at all.  In saying that,  Minnesota should find success running the football against a team ranking 110th in opponent rushing success rate.   The Gopher’s only highlight of the year was beating Iowa in a very ugly game.   Both teams play very slow and I see some value here past the three to the Falcons in an ugly game.

Play:  Bowling Green +3.5

First Responder Bowl:  Rice vs Texas State -6 O/U 59.5
Location:  General J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas
Time:  5:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Texas State’s Motivation:  High – Playing an in state rival.

Rice’s Motivation:  High – Playing an in state rival.

Home:  None as both teams are about 245 miles from Dallas.

Key Guys Missing:

Texas State

• Offensive starters LG Dorion Strawn (727 snaps) and WR Joey Hobert (579 snaps) didn’t dress for the finale.
• DE Chance Main (285 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 11 and may still be injured.

Rice:

• QB JT Daniels has medically retired. AJ Padgett will likely start at quarterback.
• Starting LB Chris Conti (359 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 9.

Net YPP:  Texas State +.18

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
Texas State Offense	6.37 (29)	4.68 (36)	154.07 (21)
Rice Defense	5.61 (69)	4.17 (65)	134.49 (78)
Rice Offense	5.94 (49)	3.79 (102)	146.1 (42)
Texas State Defense	5.86 (89)	4.11 (61)	148.72 (116)

 

Key Stats:  Both teams turn the ball over frequently.   TO margin is -8 for Texas State and -7 for Rice.

Coach Bowl ATS:  

• Mike Bloomgren, Rice: 0-1

Verdict:   JT Daniels is done with football and Freshman AJ Padgett should get the nod here.   He has actually done ok this year at a 63.5 completion percentage.  I feel like this spread is a bit high even with the backup in but I am not quite ready to fire just yet.   Strong lean.

Play:  Lean Rice +6

Guaranteed Rate Bowl:  UNLV vs Kansas -13 O/U 64.5
Location:  Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Time:  9 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

UNLV’s Motivation: High – Get to play a power 5 team is always nice.

Kansas’s Motivation:  Medium – Not a great opponent but we shall see because Lance Leipold is 5-1 ATS in bowl games.

Home:  UNLV is only 300 miles away so I think they show up.   1 point advantage.

Key Guys Missing:

Kansas:

• Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has taken the OC job at Penn State.
• Starting RT Bryce Cabeldue (688 snaps) missed the final regular-season game.
• Starting OG Michael Ford Jr. (698 snaps) left the finale with an injury.

UNLV:

• S Cameren Jenkins (381 snaps) to transfer.
• RB Courtney Reese (209 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting S Jett Elad (578 snaps) didn’t play in the conference championship game due to injury.

Net YPP:  Kansas +1.27

Basic Stats:

Both teams	Yard /Play	Yard per Rush	QBR
UNLV Offense	6.11 (44)	4.54 (46)	138.23 (60)
Kansas Defense	5.7 (74)	4.48 (89)	132.58 (69)
Kansas Offense	7.01 (8)	5.51 (8)	158.61 (16)
UNLV Defense	6.07 (103)	4.33 (81)	141.42 (98)

 

Key Stats:  Kansas’s strength of schedule is much harder at 21st compared to UNLV’s at 91st.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Lance Leipold, Kansas: 5-1
• Barry Odom, UNLV: 0-2

Verdict:   Don’t be fooled by UNLV’s darling season.  This team should struggle against an amazing coach like Lance Leopold.   Kansas ranks 24th in offensive explosiveness while UNLV ranks 115th in allowing explosive plays on defense.  I would like more info on Kansas’s injuries, but I am ok with firing on this below 14 points.

Play:  Lean Kansas -13

References:

https://fansided.com/betsided/posts/every-college-football-head-coachs-against-spread-record-bowl-games-01hgtsm2jmen

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023-college-football-news-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more