December 29th
The Cheeze-it Bowl – Oklahoma State vs Miami +1 O/U 64 –
Capping this game is really dependent on what your true thoughts are on the strength of the ACC vs the Strength of the Big 12. Both of these teams I would argue are 3rd best in both conferences. This is a little more of a home game for Miami being only 239 miles away and they will treat this as business. On the other hand, Miami has been horrible in bowl games over the past 9 years. Jeff Sagarin has Oklahoma State’s schedule a little easier than Miami but only by 16 spots. He has Oklahoma State 3.5 points better than Miami in his power ratings. I personally have Miami better than Oklahoma State by 1 point in my power ratings. I think that Miami is live here but I will wait for a 3 or better. but I doubt that I get that. Quarterback D’Eriq King announced last week that will be returning to Miami so the team will be motivated to play for him today. Their are 3 defensive opt outs for Miami are keeping me off the play.
Lean Miami +1
The Valero Alamo Bowl
Texas vs. Colorado +7 O/U 63
This game is interesting because we do know that the Big 12 is better than the Pac 12 yet this Colorado team has certainly surprised some people this year. This is essentially a home game for Sam Ellinger and Texas being just 80 miles away from San Antonio but sharp money keeps coming in on Colorado. Part of the reason for the Sharp money is that Texas hasn’t been a good favorite only at 18-22 ATS since 2015. Another reason for the Colorado money is that they have played very tough all year with their only loss against Utah and big wins vs UCLA and at Stanford. They however did avoid playing USC and lost their last game bad to Texas. Texas is +1.1 yards per play on a harder schedule and Colorado is a +.2 yards per play on an easier schedule. Team Rankings has Texas a 16 point Favorite, Sagarin has them a 13 point favorite, I have Texas as a 6.5 favorite and give Texas 1 point home field, then I have it at 7.5. Texas has some starters opting out for this bowl game as well.
Lean Colorado +7 and slight lean over
December 30th
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest vs Wisconsin -7 O/U 51.5 –
This game is interesting because its close to a home game for Wake being only an hour or so drive to Charlottesville but at the same time, Wisconsin has performed well in bowl games vs opponents in their back yards over the years. Wake Forest has been a very solid turnover team this year ranking number 1 in the nation at +13 and has only lost 3 all year. They are a team that can certainly score the ball but they also haven’t faced a good defense since Clemson the first game of the year. Wisconsin is most likely down their top 2 WRs as usual but what I will count on them for is playing very slowly controlling the time of possession and not allowing Wake to get the ball off like they are used to. Wisconsin should hold Wake from scoring much in this game as they ranking 3rd in the NCAA in defensive efficiency. According to my power ratings, Wisconsin is only a 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field but Wake is close to home so I’ll give them a point. I don’t want to bet a side in this game but Wisconsin is 4-2 to the under this year. I see lots of ways this can go under. Wisconsin scores a lot and Wake scores little. Wisconsin scores a little and so does wake. Wake Forest will have to get past 23 points for this to go over in my opinion and and I doubt that happens being that Wisconsin has held the Big 10 to 15 PPG on average. Taking the under in this game for sure.
Under 51.5 – 2.5 star premium shared play
The Music City Bowl
Missouri vs Iowa -14 O/U 49.5 – Cancelled
The Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma vs Florida -3 O/U 72 –
This bowl is an interesting handicap because Oklahoma has really been trending up and Florida is a great team that just missed the playoffs. This one is pretty simple to me. I can’t bet Florida here. I have no idea how to gauge their motivation after all that’s happened. Both teams have a few opt outs. Kyle Pitts from Florida who is their best tight end is opting out and Cornerback Tre Brown for Oklahoma is gone. My power ratings has this game Florida by 6.5 points. Give Oklahoma 1 point for home field at AT&T stadium and take 2 points away for Florida’s potential motivation let down and I am at -3.5 which is close to the spread. The total seems a little low for 2 high powered offenses but it also says that Okahoma’s defense is pretty good under Alex Grinch and I do expect that to show up this week. I also wonder if Oklahoma wants to win in the post season for the first time in a while being that they are finally out of the playoffs. I am going to relax on this bowl game and not make a play.
The late opt-outs for Florida changed this handicap so no play or lean.
December 31st
The Armed Forces Bowl
Mississippi State vs Tulsa -2.5 O/U 48
This lower total tells me a few things. For one, defense will be the deciding factor and for two, Mike Leach is playing slower. I think that this is a very interesting spread because you have an SEC team that had a terrible middle of their year and finished well vs a Tulsa team who has gotten lucky but still has an amazing 2 loss year. The Bulldogs only have 1 guy sitting out in Safety Marcus Murphy who is only 9th in tackles. Mississippi state is -.5 yards per play and Tulsa is +.85 in an inferior conference. My question here is how inferior is it? Alabama has destroyed every team except Florida and Ole Miss early. You have seen how poor the defense is in the SEC. My power ratings has Tulsa a -3.75 favorite but if you are going to bet either side, it means you believe that there is a misconception in the strength of the conference. I think the SEC is little bit weaker than people think. Lastly, Mike Leach is a bad 2-8 ATS in bowl games. He doesn’t seem to care as much from what I can see. I will lay the points with Tulsa.
Tulsa -2.5 – 2 star premium shared
The Arizona Bowl
Ball State vs San Jose State -9 O/U 62.5
Wow did this spread creep up. San Jose state has been cashing quite frequently this year at second best 6-0-1 ATS. I think you are paying a premium to bet this team at this point. I actually have San Jose State -7.5 in my power ratings but I am a little worried about the let down after they won the Mountain West conference. On the flip side, they are undefeated and do want to keep it that way. You also have to question Ball State’s motivation after winning the Mac and I also wonder if these kids are going to take this bowl seriously being so far away from home. The biggest thing for me to look at here is that San Jose State is a positive 2 yards per play in a harder conference while Ball State is somehow a -.2 yards per play yet has only lost 1 game in the MAC. The +7 turnover differential has helped them.
Lean San Jose State
The Liberty Bowl
West Virginia vs Army +7 O/U 41 –
Well this is the lowest total in the bowl games and it is because our boys from Army is playing their triple option game. Army is a very disciplined team that runs hard and hits hard. West Virginia has played well all year minus that last game vs Iowa State. The key to this game is how they do in the running game. The Mountaineers are great against the run only allowing 3.6 yards per rush. I think that they can stop the option. Army is solid on defense but they are a net negative .1 yard per play in an easy schedule while West Virginia is +.65 in a harder schedule. I think that Neal Brown has faced Georgia Southern enough when he coached at Troy in the Sunbelt to know how to stop the option. Brown has beaten Georgia Southern enough times by double digits to give me that confidence. My power ratings have West Virginia by 6.25 points but I am looking to them. My only concern is if Army limits their possessions so much that the mountaineers can’t get margin. Lean West Virginia and hoping for a better number later.
Lean West Virginia -7
The Texas Bowl
TCU vs Arkansas +5.5 O/U 56.5
TCU is a decent size favorite vs Arkansas here and if there is any side in a bowl game that I want to avoid, it is this one. TCU has been Jekyll and Hyde all year long beating teams like Texas and Oklahoma State and then losing to teams like Kansas State and West Virginia. On the other hand. Arkansas has been quite the Ying and Yang themselves beating both Mississippi teams and Tennessee while losing to Missouri and the rest of the SEC West. The good news for the Arkansas side is that they have been in every game in their schedule minus Bama and Florida of course. Even with the 3-7 record, Arkansas is somehow net .1 yards per play to TCUs net .7. The Razorback’s strength is the pass and Horned Frogs strength is the run. TCU has a pretty good defense this year and Arkansas has a below average D. I have TCU a 3.75 favorite on a neutral field. This game is located in Texas and about a 5 hour drive for TCU and their few fans so they get a little bump for home field moves it to about 5 as it is. In saying all this, I think that the under is in play. Both teams play below average possessions per game.
Under 56.5 – 2 star premium shared play
