College Football Bowl Games December 29th – January 1st Info, Plays, & Leans – Sports Betting

ALL information and spreads subject to change!

Friday, Dec. 29

Gator Bowl:  No. 22 Kentucky vs Clemson -5 O/U 46
Location:  Everbank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
Time:  12 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Kentucky’s Motivation: High – Great game selection for this undeserving team.

Clemson’s Motivation:  Medium – Dabo gets his guys up for games even if they are not playoffs.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Clemson

• WR Beaux Collins (636 snaps) to transfer.
• OL Mitchell Mayes (352 snaps) to transfer.
• Stud starting S Andrew Mukuba (581 snaps) to transfer.
• CB Nate Wiggins (494 snaps) to transfer.
• LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (689 snaps) to transfer.
• DL Ruke Orhorhoro (409 snaps) to transfer.
• DT Tyler Davis (436 snaps) to NFL draft.

Kentucky:

• Starting EDGE Keaten Wade (371 snaps) to transfer.

Net YPP:  Clemson +.05

Basic Stats:

Key stats:  Clemson’s D is top 4 in success rate in both against the run and the pass.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Dabo Swinney, Clemson: 12-7
• Mark Stoops, Kentucky: 3-3-1

Verdict:  Clemson has many guys sitting out, but we still have to respect the fact that the next guys up are highly talented and highly ranked individuals.   Kentucky was kind of the Penn State of the SEC.  They would bully the bad teams just to get smoked against the good teams.  This team had a nice signature win vs Lousiville to become bowl eligible at the end of the season, but the loss to South Carolina the week before is certainly a head scratcher.  I have a very strong lean to Clemson, but will wait too see if there are more holdouts.

Play:   Lean Clemson -5

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame -6.5 O/U 41.5
Location:  Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas
Time:  2 p.m.
Channel:  CBS

Oregon State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Coach is gone and this team has no conference.

Notre Dame’s Motivation:  Medium – They lost some guys but some will stay and try and ball for next year.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Oregon State:

• Coach Jon Smith has left to Michigan State while Passing game coordinator Kefense Hynson takes over in the interim, while cornerbacks coach Anthony Perkins will serve as the interim DC.

Transfer Portal

• Starting QB DJ Uiagalelei (704 snaps)
• Backup QB Aidan Chiles (100 snaps)
  • Confirmed QB Ben Gulbranson will start after starting final eight games of 2022.
• Stud starting LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (741 snaps; leading tackler)
• Stud starting S Akili Arnold (664 snaps)
• CB Jermod McCoy (410 snaps)
• PK Atticus Sappington (13-of-14 on FGs)

Opt-Outs

• WR Anthony Gould (517 snaps)
• Starting RT Taliese Fuaga (700 snaps)
• RB Damien Martinez (488 snaps) is unlikely to play in the bowl game despite being eligible after being arrested.

Injuries

• Starters LT Joshua Gray (682 snaps) and LG Heneli Bloomfield (619 snaps) both missed the finale.

Notre Dame:

Coaching Changes

• Offensive coordinator Gerad Parker will take the head-coaching job at Troy.

Transfer Portal

• WR Rico Flores (404 snaps)
• WR Tobias Merriweather (378 snaps)
• TE Holden Staes (369 snaps)
• WR Chris Tyree (276 snaps)
• WR Braylon James (22 snaps)
• Starting C Zeke Correll (558 snaps; injured since Week 10)
• DE Nana Osafo-Mensah (252 snaps)
• S Ramon Henderson (304 snaps)
• S Antonio Carter (72 snaps)

Opt-Outs

• QB Sam Hartman (678 snaps)
• LB Marist Liufau (595 snaps)
• OT Blake Fisher (710 snaps)
• OT Joe Alt (713 snaps)
• CB Cam Hart (three FF, four PBUs)
• RB Audric Estime (388 snaps)

Injuries

• Starting RG Rocco Spindler (559 snaps) went down in Week 10 with a season-ending injury. Billy Schrauth (196 snaps) served as his replacement.
• Stud starting TE Mitchell Evans (425 snaps) was lost for the year in Week 9.

Net YPP:  Notre Dame +1.24

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   Notre Dame is number 2 in EPA margin while Oregon State is 25th

Bowl Coach ATS:

• Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame: 1-0

Verdict:  They should call this the opt out bowl because we really won’t recognize much of either team here.   I do know that Notre Dame still has more talent on the roster which is why they are favored here still in the first place.

Play:   No Play

Liberty Bowl:  Memphis vs. Iowa State -10 O/U 57.5
Location:  Nissan Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
Time:  3:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Memphis’s Motivation:  High – Nice to play a power 5 team in a nice bowl.

Iowa State’s Motivation:  Medium Low – Not sure what to think of the Clones here.  I would personally rather checkout Nash-Vegas myself.

Home:  Memphis is playing at home!   I think we get some Iowa State fans there though.

Key Guys Missing:

Memphis:

• Starting RG Davion Carter (852 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting LT Makylan Pounders (673 snaps) to transfer.
• Backup QB Tevin Carter to transfer.
• CB Julian Barnett (322 snaps) didn’t play in the finale due to injury.
• EDGE Andres Fox (181 snaps) missed the final two games due to injury.

Iowa State:

• RB Eli Sanders (195 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting S Malik Verdon (496 snaps) missed the finale with a fractured forearm but might play in the bowl.
• S Ben Nikkel (267 snaps) didn’t play in the finale due to injury.

Potential Opt-Outs to Watch

• Starting CB TJ Tampa (747 snaps)

Net YPP:   Iowa State +.85

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   Iowa State’s strength of schedule ranking 16th is much harder than Memphis’s at 109th.

Bowl Coach ATS:

• Ryan Silverfield, Memphis: 2-1
• Matt Campbell, Iowa State: 3-5

Verdict:  Iowa state’s offensive numbers haven’t been great, but their defense is really what made this team win some big games vs Kansas State and Oklahoma State.  They improved as the year progressed.  I really do not like the fact that Memphis will be without two starting offensive lineman.    I could see Iowa State’s D shutting this offense down, but no play at 10.

Play: No Play

Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio State -4.5 O/U 49
Location:  AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Texas
Time:  8 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Missouri’s Motivation:  High – They get a BCS Bowl vs Ohio State.  Nice reward for a great season.

Ohio State’s Motivation:  Medium – Careful here.   Everyone thought Ohio State would not be motivated a few years ago in a Rose Bowl vs Utah.   What happened?

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Missouri:

• None – Head coach Eli Drinkwitz expects everyone on the team to be available

Ohio State:

• Starting QB Kyle McCord (703 snaps)
  • Devin Brown (72 snaps) should be healthy enough to start.
• WR Julian Fleming (552 snaps) to transfer.
• CB Jyaire Brown (48 snaps)
• RB Chip Trayanum (85 carries)

Opt-Outs

• RB Miyan Williams (107 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8)
• WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (649 snaps)
• Starting DT Michael Hall Jr. (368 snaps)

Potential Opt-Outs to Watch

• TE Cade Stover (581 snaps)
• S Josh Proctor (552 snaps)
• DE JT Tuimoloau (621 snaps)
• DT Michael Hall Jr. (368 snaps)
• LB Tommy Eichenberg (607 snaps)

Net YPP:  Ohio State +1.26

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Ohio State’s defense ranks 3rd in opponent yards per play.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri: 2-0
• Ryan Day, Ohio State: 2-3

Verdict:   In a perfect world, Ohio State would probably be favored by 10 points or so, but the whole motivation and opt out thing has really brought this line down.   Now this line would be about Ohio State -5 or so if we knew if Marvin Harrison and a few other guys were playing because the drop-off from Kyle McCord to Devin Brown sure as heck isn’t this much.   What is taking them so long to decide?   I remember when everyone question Ohio State’s motivation against Utah a few years back when they missed the playoffs.  How did that work out?   Not good.   I will lean Ohio State and fire on this when it gets closer to gameday.

Play:  Ohio State -2 but wait.  

Saturday, Dec. 30

Peach Bowl:  No. 11 Ole Miss  vs. No. 10 Penn State -4.5 O/U 48.5
Location:  Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Time:  12 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Ole Miss’s Motivation: High – Penn State is a good matchup in a great bowl.

Penn State’s Motivation:  High – Great bowl for the Bullies of the Big 10.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Penn State:

• DE Chop Robinson (303 snaps) is opting out.
• CB Johnny Dixon (497 snaps)

Potential Opt-Outs to Watch

• CB Kalen King (481 snaps)
• TE Theo Johnson (615 snaps; declared for NFL Draft)
• OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (722 snaps; declared for NFL Draft)

Ole Miss:

• Starting RT Micah Pettus (608 snaps) was lost for the year in Week 10.
• Starting EDGE Cedric Johnson (526 snaps) to opt out.

Net YPP:  Penn State +.35

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Penn State’s defense is number 1 in defensive success rate.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss: 2-4
• James Franklin Penn State: 7-4

Verdict:  This is a perfect number for these two teams playing each other at 3.5 or 4, however, I do expect this number to drop if a few more guys opt out for the Lions.   The truth is that Penn State should be able to run all over this team with Ole Miss only ranking 86th in defensive rushing success rate.  Ole Miss however will be quite motivated this game and they have beaten good defenses like Texas A&M

Play:  None right now

Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn -6.5 O/U 47
Location:  Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Time:  2 p.m.
TV Channel:  ABC

Maryland’s Motivation:  High – Great bowl game for this school.

Auburn’s Motivation:  High – Hugh Freeze is 6-1 ATS in bowl games.  He will get his kids up.

Home:  None

Auburn:

• WR Malcolm Johnson Jr. (312 snaps) is transferring.
• CB DJ James (691 snaps) to opt out.
• CB Nehemiah Pritchett (471 snaps) to opt out.
• DT Marcus Harris (533 snaps) to opt out.

Maryland:

• Starting TE Corey Dyches (467 snaps) to transfer.
• RB Antwain Littleton II (244 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting LB Jaishawn Barham (478 snaps) to transfer.
• CB Corey Coley (305 snaps; lost job late in year)

Opt-Outs

• Starting QB Taulia Tagovailoa (780 snaps).  Expect QB Billy Edwards Jr. (45 snaps) to start with Cameron Edge (7 snaps) also getting some looks.
• Starting CB Tarheeb Still (574 snaps)

Net YPP:  Maryland +.97

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Maryland quietly has a pretty darn good defense ranking 19th in net yards per play, but nothing is more key than their quarterback opting out.

Bowl Coach ATS:

• Hugh Freeze, Auburn: 6-1
• Mike Locksley, Maryland: 2-0

Verdict:  I think that playing in this bowl game would hurt Taulia Tagovailoa’s draft stock more than it could help him, so smart move to opt out.   He just needs to hope that his backups that have limited experience struggle against a suspect Auburn defense.   This number has grown too big for my tastes as both coaches are pretty good against the number.

Play:   Take Maryland past the 7 if/when it happens.

Orange Bowl:  No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 5 Florida State +20 O/U 44.5
Location:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Time:  4 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Georgia’s Motivation:  Medium High – They didn’t accomplish their goals but Kirby might want to prove something here.  He has a good Bowl ATS at 8-3.

Florida State’s Motivation: Medium – The only way to save face here to prove the committee wrong is to play your asses off.  Sadly, they now have a bunch of guys opting out.  The biggest concern here for me is that Mike Norvell is 0-5 ATS in bowl games.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Georgia:

Transfer Portal

• WR/PR Mekhi Mews (750+ all-purpose yards)
• OLB Marvin Jones Jr. (247 snaps)
• LB Xavien Sorey Jr. (188 snaps)
• Starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (336 snaps; missed final four games)

Opt-Outs

• TE Brock Bowers (520 snaps)
• OT Amarius Mims (297 snaps)

Potential Opt-Outs to Watch

• OG Tate Ratledge (682 snaps)
• CB Kamari Lassiter (678 snaps)
• DL Nazir Stackhouse (388 snaps)

Florida State:

Injuries

• QB Jordan Travis (649 snaps) is out for the year
• Backup QB Tate Rodemaker (141 snaps)

Transfer Portal

• Starting LB DJ Lundy (403 snaps)
• Starting DL Joshua Farmer (427 snaps)
• OT Bless Harris (390 snaps)
• TE Markeston Douglas (210 snaps)

Opt-Outs

• Starting WR Johnny Wilson (459 snaps)
• Starting WR Keon Coleman (672 snaps)
• Starting TE Jaheim Bell (451 snaps)
• Starting RB Trey Benson (413 snaps)
• Starting DE Jared Verse (586 snaps)
• Starting DT Fabien Lovett (337 snaps)
• Starting S Akeem Dent (446 snaps)
• Starting CB Renardo Green (651 snaps)
• Starting CB Jarrion Jones (453 snaps)

Injuries 

• Starting WR Rara Thomas (391 snaps) wasn’t dressed for the SEC title game.
• Starting OT Amarius Mims (297 snaps) left the last game with an injury and did not return.
• RB Lawrance Toafili (361 snaps) isn’t on depth chart following surgery.
• CB Julian Humphrey (168 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 11.

Net YPP:  Georgia +.55

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   Nothing is more key than the Jordan Travis injury and the potential opt outs of these games.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Kirby Smart, Georgia: 8-3
• Mike Norvell, Florida State: 0-5

Verdict:   This should be called the potential opt out bowl.  If I am Florida State, I would rather not play in it.  What a mess.   Both teams you would think should be motivated, yet both teams should have probably been in the playoffs.   This is a large spread for such a great defense in Florida State and I give them the edge on defense.   Georgia obviously has a large edge on offense being number 5 in success rate and 4th in EPA, but it is hard to get a good read on who will play in this game.  Mike Norvell has a terrible bowl ATS against Kirby Smart who has been phoenomenal at 8-3, but can Tate Rodemaker grow up a bit over these past 4 weeks.  Will be tough with all the opt outs.  No play.

Play:  No Play

Arizona Bowl:  Wyoming vs. Toledo +3.5 O/U 44.5
Location:  Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona
Time:  4:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  Barstool’s freaking website.  OR the CW.

Wyoming’s Motivation:  High – Craig Bohl announced his retirement.   The kids like him and I think they play hard.

Toledo’s Motivation:  Low – Jason Candle is 1-5 ATS in bowl games.   I expect a low effort.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Toledo:

• Starting QB Dequan Finn (815 snaps)
  • Tucker Gleason (69 snaps) will start
• Stud starting LG Vinny Scuiry (838 snaps)

Potential Opt-Outs to Watch

• Stud CB Quinyon Mitchell (781 snaps)

Wyoming:

Coaching Changes

Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl announced he will retire after the Arizona Bowl.

Transfer Portal

• Starting CB Kolbey Taylor (536 snaps; didn’t play final two games)
• Starting RT Caden Barnett (608 snaps) dealt with an injury at the end of the season could miss.

Net YPP:  Toledo +1.24

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  One would think that Toledo should be able to move the football some, even with the backup, but nothing is more key than Craig Bohl announcing his retirement while coaching in this game.

Bowl Coach ATS:

• Jason Candle, Toledo: 1-5
• Craig Bohl, Wyoming: 12-3

Verdict:   Throw away all the stats in this game.   This is a HUGE motivational advantage for Wyoming and I think that a big ML bet on them at this point looks good.

Play:  Wyoming ML -180

Monday, Jan. 1, 2024

ReliaQuest Bowl:  Wisconsin vs No. 13 LSU -10 O/U 56
Location:  Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Time:  12 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN2

Wisconsin’s Motivation:  High – Beating an SEC team would be a great start to the year.

LSU’s Motivation:  Medium Low – Good bowl game but this team had higher aspirations.

Home:  None

Citrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa +6.5 O/U 35.5
Location:  Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time:  1 p.m.
TV Channel:  ABC

Tennessee’s Motivation:  Medium – Not sure what the big need is here for a big performance against a team with no offense.

Iowa’s Motivation:  High – This team earned a great bowl game based on punting the ball better than any team in history.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Iowa:

• WR Diante Vines (344 snaps) to transfer.
• Backup QB Spencer Petras (Utah State)

Injuries

• Star CB/PR Cooper DeJean (705 snaps) was lost for the season in Week 11.
• Starting RT Gennings Dunker (661 snaps) didn’t play in the Big Ten title game.
• Starting QB Cade McNamara (206 snaps), TE Erick All (251 snaps) and TE Luke Lachey (120 snaps) were all lost earlier this season, although Lachey could potentially return for bowl.

Tennessee:

• CB Doneiko Slaughter (387 snaps) to transfer.
• CB Tamarion McDonald (486 snaps) to transfer.
• CB Brandon Turnage (149 snaps) to transfer.
• CB Warren Burrell (166 snaps) to transfer.
• EDGE Tyler Baron (244 snaps) to transfer.
• Starting QB Joe Milton (772 snaps) to opt out.
• Starting RB Jaylen Wright (325 snaps) to opt out.

Injuries

• The inactive list in the finale against Vanderbilt included starting RG Javontez Spraggins (699 snaps), LG Andrej Karic (266 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 9), RT Brian Grant (33 snaps), starting S Wesley Walker (636 snaps), DL Omarr Norman-Lott (235 snaps) and DE Roman Harrison (301 snaps).
• Tennessee had previously lost WR Bru McCoy (231 snaps), CB Kamal Hadden (311 snaps), WR Dont’e Thornton (214 snaps), LB Keenan Pili (31 snaps) and LB Arion Carter (126 snaps) for the season.

Net YPP:  Tennessee +1.43

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   Iowa is dead last at 133rd in offensive EPA.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Kirk Ferentz, Iowa: 12-6-1
• Josh Heupel, Tennessee: 2-3

Verdict:   Tennessee is without a bunch of corners, but does that matter against the most pathetic offense in bowl games?   I think not, but I do think that this could be a very ugly low scoring game.  I do not want to fade Ferentz who is 67% in bowl games.  I think the under is the play but no rush.   New information with Joe Milton opting out.   Take Iowa +6.5 here.   Ferentz is too good against bad quarterbacks.

Play:  Iowa +6.5

Fiesta Bowl: No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon -16.5 O/U 65.5
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Time:  1 p.m.
Channel:  ESPN

Liberty’s Motivation:  High – Huge bowl game for an undefeated team.   Prove it baby.

Oregon’s Motivation:  Medium Low – Maybe try to save further embarrassment, but I expect lots of opt outs.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Liberty:

Transfer Portal

• Starting CB Preston Hodge (690 snaps)
• DL Kendy Charles (336 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 11)
• DE Bryan Whitehead II (238 snaps)
• Backup QB Johnathan Bennett
• S Jalon Jimmerson (160 snaps)

Injuries

• Starting LB Jerome Jolly Jr. (447 snaps) and S A’Khori Jones (269 snaps) didn’t play in the conference title game.

Misc.

• Keep an eye out for any news involving Liberty starting QB Kaidon Salter.

Oregon:

• CB Trikweze Bridges (204 snaps) to transfer.
• Backup QB Ty Thompson (97 snaps) to transfer.

Opt-Outs

• Starting C Jackson Powers-Johnson (829 snaps; will not play in bowl)
• Starting WR Troy Franklin (722 snaps; not expected to play)
• Starting CB Khyree Jackson (520 snaps)

Potential Opt-Outs to Watch

• WR Tez Johnson (474 snaps)
• TE Terrance Ferguson (603 snaps)
• RT Ajani Cornelius (834 snaps)
• DB Tysheem Johnson (748 snaps)
• DE Jordan Burch (418 snaps; has practiced but also dealing with injury)
• S Evan Williams (697 snaps)
• LB Jeffrey Bassa (668 snaps)

Dan Lanning said QB Bo Nix and RB Bucky Irving (548 snaps) will play in the bowl game. Starting DL Brandon Dorlus (564 snaps) confirmed he will also play.

Injuries

• CB Jahlil Florence (392 snaps) missed the final two games.
• WR/KR Gary Bryant Jr. (511 snaps) did not play in the conference title game.

Net YPP:  Oregon +1.08

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Liberty isn’t good against the run ranking 83rd in success rate while Oregon is number 2 in rushing success rate.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Jamey Chadwell, Liberty: 0-2
• Dan Lanning, Oregon: 0-1

Verdict:   I am surprised that Oregon has less opt outs than a team like Tennessee or Georgia, but here we are.  There could be more opt outs pending.   So Oregon will be able to score at will vs Liberty, but if the Ducks have a weakness, it is against the run themselves ranking 39th in opponent rushing success rate while Liberty ranks number 3 in success rate.  I think the motivation should lie here more for Liberty and They could cover this spread.

Play:  Lean Liberty +16.5

CFB Invitational Semifinal – Rose Bowl:   No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan -1.5 O/U 45.5
Location:  Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California
Time:  5 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Alabama’s Motivation:  High – Natty on the line.

Michigan’s Motivation:  High – Natty on the line.

Home:  None

Key Guys Missing:

Alabama:

• None

Michigan:

• Stud starting RG Zak Zinter (649 snaps) was lost for the season.

Net YPP:  Michigan +.42

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Michigan is 3rd in EPA Margin while Alabama is 24th.   Some say that Alabama has had the harder schedule, but I do not see that.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Nick Saban, Alabama: 12-8 (at Alabama)
• Jim Harbaugh: 3-6

Verdict:   This spread is small.   I do not understand the love for Alabama minus their history for success.   Not long ago this Alabama team should have lost to Auburn as well as a few other close games vs Arkansas, A&M and a loss to Texas.  What has Michigan done?  Well they have beaten all of their competition by margin minus Ohio State who is a top 4 team in my power ratings.  I think that the best unit on the field is the Michigan defense.  This team stuck together for a reason after making the playoffs and failing over the past 3 years.  I think that this team is more mature than Alabama and they get it done.

Play:  Michigan ML -118

CFB Invitational Semifinal – Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Washington +4 O/U 64
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Time:  8:45 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Texas’s Motivation:  High – Natty on the line.

Washington’s Motivation:  High – Natty on the line.

Home: None

Key Guys Missing:

Texas:

• Starting RB Jonathon Brooks (450 snaps) was lost for the season.

Washington: 

• None

Net YPP:   Washington +.06

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Washington only ranks 128th in defensive rushing success rate.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• Steve Sarkisian, Texas: 2-3
• Kalen DeBoer, Washington: 1-0

Verdict:  If Texas could just run the ball all game and keep Washington’s offense off of the field, they could win this game and cover the spread.   Unfortunately for the Longhorns, that is not how Steve Sarkisian operates.  He loves to throw the ball and that could be their downfall.   Washington is a much better team out of the elements, and playing in New Orleans in a dome will certainly help them.   I think that Texas has issues here and turnovers will be key.   There is a coaching mismatch that showed just last year in their bowl game where Washington beat Texas in Texas 27-20.   Same starting quarterbacks here.  Minus the early Alabama game, Texas has had a pretty easy schedule.  They barely got by Kansas State with a backup quarterback and TCU.   This team lost to Oklahoma back in October.   Yards per play is almost equal here and I think that Washington wins this game outright.

Play:  Washington +4 and Washington ML +180

Monday, Jan. 8

College Football Final National Invitational Game
Location:  NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Time:  7:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Motivation will be high for both teams.

Home:  None

References:

https://fansided.com/betsided/posts/every-college-football-head-coachs-against-spread-record-bowl-games-01hgtsm2jmen

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023-college-football-news-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more